The Efficacy of Personalized Drugs Designed for Only One Patient Cannot Be Tested by Randomized Double-Blind Clinical Trials (RCTs)

We know that there are times when therapies work for some patients, but not for others. But clinical trials often do not account for such differences. If the effects of the new drug are not widespread enough among the general population, the trial will be deemed a failure, and the F.D.A. will not allow the drug to be taken even by the patients who would have benefitted from it. Maybe the solution is liberty. Allow physicians liberty on what therapies to suggest, and patients liberty on what therapies to try. This especially makes sense when the disease is dire and no effective therapy is yet widely known.

Many predict that we are moving toward personalized medicine. We need less regulation and more liberty so personalized medicine can progress, and more patients can be more quickly cured of more diseases. We need a sense of urgency in requesting liberty.

(p. D3) A new drug, created to treat just one patient, has pushed the bounds of personalized medicine and has raised unexplored regulatory and ethical questions, scientists reported on Wednesday [Oct. 9, 2019].

The drug, described in The New England Journal of Medicine, is believed to be the first “custom” treatment for a genetic disease. It is called milasen, named after the only patient who will ever take it: Mila (mee-lah) Makovec, who lives with her mother, Julia Vitarello, in Longmont, Colo.

. . .

Ms. Vitarello . . . set up Mila’s Miracle Foundation and was appealing for donations on GoFundMe. So, she began fund-raising in earnest, eventually raising $3 million for a variety of research efforts.

Dr. Yu’s team oversaw development of the drug, tested it in rodents, and consulted with the Food and Drug Administration. In January 2018, the agency granted permission to give the drug to Mila. She got her first dose on Jan. 31, 2018.

With continued treatments, the number of seizures has diminished so much that the girl has between none and six a day, and they last less than a minute.

Milasen is believed to be the first drug developed for a single patient (CAR-T cancer therapies, while individualized, are not drugs). But the path forward is not clear, Dr. Yu and his colleagues acknowledged.

. . .

. . . how might a custom drug’s efficacy might be evaluated, and how should regulators weigh the urgency of the patient’s situation and the number of patients who could ultimately be treated.

For the full story see:

Gina Kolata. “Drug Designed for One Raises Many Questions.” The New York Times (Tuesday, October 15, 2019 [sic]): D3.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date Oct. 9, 2019 [sic], and has the title “Scientists Designed a Drug for Just One Patient. Her Name Is Mila.” Where the more detailed online version differs from the print version, the passages quoted above follow the print [sic] version.)

The academic article co-authored by Dr. Yu that reports on the personalized drug milasen is:

Kim, Jinkuk, Chunguang Hu, Christelle Moufawad El Achkar, Lauren E. Black, Julie Douville, Austin Larson, Mary K. Pendergast, Sara F. Goldkind, Eunjung A. Lee, Ashley Kuniholm, Aubrie Soucy, Jai Vaze, Nandkishore R. Belur, Kristina Fredriksen, Iva Stojkovska, Alla Tsytsykova, Myriam Armant, Renata L. DiDonato, Jaejoon Choi, Laura Cornelissen, Luis M. Pereira, Erika F. Augustine, Casie A. Genetti, Kira Dies, Brenda Barton, Lucinda Williams, Benjamin D. Goodlett, Bobbie L. Riley, Amy Pasternak, Emily R. Berry, Kelly A. Pflock, Stephen Chu, Chantal Reed, Kimberly Tyndall, Pankaj B. Agrawal, Alan H. Beggs, P. Ellen Grant, David K. Urion, Richard O. Snyder, Susan E. Waisbren, Annapurna Poduri, Peter J. Park, Al Patterson, Alessandra Biffi, Joseph R. Mazzulli, Olaf Bodamer, Charles B. Berde, and Timothy W. Yu. “Patient-Customized Oligonucleotide Therapy for a Rare Genetic Disease.” New England Journal of Medicine 381, no. 17 (Oct. 9, 2019): 1644-52.

An accompanying editorial commenting on the regulatory challenges raised by personalized drugs like milasen is:

Woodcock, Janet, and Peter Marks. “Drug Regulation in the Era of Individualized Therapies.” New England Journal of Medicine 381, no. 17 (Oct. 9, 2019): 1678-80.

A Cheap Nonrefrigerated Drug that Could Have Saved Tens of Thousands of Women’s Lives Languished for Half a Century Waiting for a Clinical Trial

They already knew tranexamic saved lives of bleeding soldiers and bleeding car crash victims. Why did regulators make the world wait 50 years, and finally do an expensive randomized double-blind clinical trial, to know that it also would save the lives of bleeding new mothers? You can’t blame drug companies. The drug’s patent had expired long ago, so no drug company would make profits from the sale of the drug sufficient to pay the expense of the clinical trial.

(p. D3) An inexpensive generic drug that saves the lives of wounded soldiers and civilian car crash victims has now been shown to rescue women suffering hemorrhages in childbirth.

. . .

In a major six-year trial involving over 20,000 women in 21 countries, researchers showed that tranexamic acid, a little-known blood-clotter invented in the 1950s, reduced maternal bleeding deaths by a third if it was given within three hours. It costs less than $2 a dose and does not require refrigeration.

The trial — known as Woman, short for World Maternal Antifibrinolytic — was led by doctors at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine and paid for by the Wellcome Trust, Pfizer, Britain’s health department and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation. Results were published in The Lancet on Wednesday [April 26, 2017].

. . .

The World Health Organization currently recommends treating birth hemorrhages by massaging the uterus and injecting uterus-shrinking drugs like oxytocin.

Tranexamic acid acts in a different way — it allows blood to clot more quickly — and so it should be given in addition to the usual measures and at the same time, said Dr. Ian Roberts, one of the study’s lead authors.

. . .

The drug was invented in Japan by a husband-wife research team, Shosuke and Utako Okamoto. They hoped it would be used to prevent birth hemorrhages, but local obstetricians declined to organize a clinical trial.

Ultimately, they turned the patent over to a Japanese pharmaceutical company, which sold it as treatment for heavy menstrual periods and as an ingredient in skin-whitening creams. Some oral surgeons used it when doing dental work on hemophiliacs, Dr. Roberts said.

For the full commentary see:

Donald G. McNeil Jr. “Global Health; A Cheap Drug Can Save Hemorrhaging Mothers.” The New York Times (Tuesday, May 2, 2017 [sic]): D3.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added. The Wednesday, April 26, 2017 date is the date The Lancet posted a co-author discussion of the results of the study.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date April 26, 2017 [sic], and has the title “Global Health; Inexpensive Drug Prevents Deaths in New Mothers, Study Finds.” Where the more detailed online version differs from the print version, the passages quoted above follow the print [sic] version.)

The academic article in The Lancet and mentioned above is:

Shakur, Haleema, Ian Roberts, Bukola Fawole, Rizwana Chaudhri, Mohamed El-Sheikh, Adesina Akintan, Zahida Qureshi, Hussein Kidanto, Bellington Vwalika, Abdulfetah Abdulkadir, Saturday Etuk, Shehla Noor, Etienne Asonganyi, Zarko Alfirevic, Danielle Beaumont, Carine Ronsmans, Sabaratnam Arulkumaran, Adrian Grant, Kaosar Afsana, Metin Gülmezoglu, Beverley Hunt, Oladapo Olayemi, Ian Roberts, Iain Chalmers, Pisake Lumbiganon, Gilda Piaggio, Tony Brady, Haleema Shakur, Ian Roberts, Zarko Alfirevic, Diana Elbourne, Metin Gülmezoglu, Carine Ronsmans, Eni Balogun, Tracey Pepple, Danielle Prowse, Nigel Quashi, Lin Barneston, Collette Barrow, Danielle Beaumont, Lisa Cook, Lauren Frimley, Daniel Gilbert, Catherine Gilliam, Rob Jackson, Taemi Kawahara, Hakim Miah, Sergey Kostrov, Maria Ramos, Ian Roberts, Haleema Shakur, Phil Edwards, Tom Godec, Sumaya Huque, Bukola Fawole, Olujide Okunade, Olusade Adetayo, Rizwana Chaudhri, Aasia Kayani, Kiran Javaid, Bukola Fawole, Rizwana Chaudhri, Chrstine Biryabarema, Zahida Qureshi, Robert Tchounzou, Mohamed El-Sheikh, Hussein Kidanto, Mohan Regmi, Bellington Vwalika, Kastriot Dallaku, Mateus Sahani, Sayeba Akhter, Abdulfetah Abdulkadir, Nicolas Meda, Anthony Kwame Dah, Adesina Akintan, Olufemi Odekunle, Oluwabusola Monehin, Austin Ojo, Grace Akinbinu, Ifeoma Offiah, Saturday Etuk, Ubong Akpan, Uduak Udofia, Useneno Okon, Ezukwa Omoronyia, Okpe James, Oladapo Olayemi, Nike Bello, Blessed Adeyemi, Chris Aimakhu, Olufemi Akinsanya, Bamidele Adeleye, Oluwaseun Adeyemi, Kayode Oluwatosin, Abiodun Aboyeji, Abiodun Adeniran, Adebayo Adewale, Noah Olaomo, Lawrence Omo-Aghoja, Emmanuel Okpako, Lucky Oyeye, Francis Alu, John Ogudu, Ezekiel Ladan, Ibrahim Habib, Babasola Okusanya, Olatunde Onafowokan, David Isah, Abalaka Aye, Felix Okogbo, Egbaname Aigere, Mark Ogbiti, Temitope Onile, Olaide Salau, Yinka Amode, Kamil Shoretire, Adebola Owodunni, Kehinde Ologunde, Akintunde Ayinde, Moses Alao, Olalekan Awonuga, Babatunde Awolaja, Omololu Adegbola, Fatimah Habeebu-Adeyemi, Adeyemi Okunowo, Hadiza Idris, Ola Okike, Nneka Madueke, Josiah Mutihir, Nankat Joseph, Babatunde Adebudo, Adeniyi Fasanu, Olugbenga Akintunde, Olufemi Abidoye, Owigho Opreh, Sophia Udonwa, Gladys Dibia, Simeon Bazuaye, Arafat Ifemeje, Aniefiok Umoiyoho, Emmanuel Inyang-Etoh, Sununu Yusuf, Kayode Olayinka, Babalola Adeyemi, Olusegun Ajenifuja, Umar Ibrahim, Yusuf Baffah Adamu, Oluwarotimi Akinola, Grace Adekola-Oni, Paul Kua, Roseline Iheagwam, Audu Idrisa, Ado Geidam, Andrea Jogo, Joseph Agulebe, Joseph Ikechebelu, Onyebuchi Udegbunam, Jacob Awoleke, Oluseyi Adelekan, Hajaratu Sulayman, Nkeiruka Ameh, Nurudeen Onaolapo, Affiss Adelodun, William Golit, Dachollom Audu, Adetunji Adeniji, Folasade Oyelade, Lamaran Dattijo, Palmer Henry, Babalola Adeyemi, Olabisi Loto, Odidika Umeora, Abraham Onwe, Emily Nzeribe, Bartthy Okorochukwu, Augustine Adeniyi, Emmanuel Gbejegbe, Akpojaro Ikpen, Ikemefuna Nwosu, Abdulrasaq Sambo, Olubunmi Ladipo, Sola Abubakar, Ola Nene Okike, Enyinnaya Chikwendu Nduka, Eziamaka Pauline Ezenkwele, Daniel Onwusulu, Theresa Azonima Irinyenikan, Swati Singh, Amaitari Bariweni, Hadiza Galadanci, Peter Achara, Osagie Osayande, Mohammed Gana, Rizwana Chaudhri, Kiran Jabeen, Ayesha Mobeen, Sadaf Mufti, Maliha Zafar, Shehla Noor, Basharat Ahmad, Maimoona Munawar, Jeharat Gul, Naseema Usman, Fehmida Shaheen, Mariam Tariq, Nadia Sadiq, Rabia Batool, Habiba Sharaf Ali, Manahil Jaffer, Asma Baloch, Noonari Mukhtiar, Tasneem Ashraf, Raheela Asmat, Salma Khudaidad, Ghazala Taj, Roshan Qazi, Saira Dars, Faryal Sardar, Sanobar Ashfaq, Saeeda Majeed, Sadaqat Jabeen, Rukhsana Karim, Farzana Burki, Syeda Rabia Bukhari, Fouzia Gul, Musarrat Jabeen, Akhtar Sherin, Qurratul Ain, Shahid Rao, Uzma Shaheen, Samina Manzoor, Shabween Masood, Shabana Rizvi, Anita Ali, Abida Sajid, Aisha Iftikhar, Shazia Batool, Lubna Dar, Shahenzad Sohail, Shazia Rasul, Shamsa Humayun, Rashida Sultana, Sofia Manzoor, Syeda Mazhar, Afshan Batool, Asia Nazir, Nasira Tasnim, Hajira Masood, Razia Khero, Neelam Surhio, Samana Aleem, Naila Israr, Saba Javed, Lubna Bashir, Samina Iqbal, Faiza Aleem, Rubina Sohail, Saima Iqbal, Samina Dojki, Alia Bano, Naseem Saba, Maimoona Hafeez, Nishat Akram, Naila Israr, Riffat Shaheen, Haleema Hashmi, Sharmeen Arshad, Rubina Hussain, Sadia Khan, Nighat Shaheen, Safia Khalil, Pushpa Sachdev, Gulfareen Arain, Amtullah Zarreen, Sara Saeed, Shamayela Hanif, Nabia Tariq, Mahwish Jamil, Shama Chaudhry, Hina Rajani, Tayyiba Wasim, Summera Aslam, Nilofar Mustafa, Huma Quddusi, Sajila Karim, Shazia Sultana, Misbah Harim, Mohd Chohan, Nabila Salman, Fareesa Waqar, Shamsunnisa Sadia, Lubna Kahloon, Shehla Manzoor, Samar Amin, Umbreen Akram, Ambreen Ikram, Samina Kausar, Tahira Batool, Brigadier Naila, Tahir Kyani, Christine Biryabarema, Ruth Bulime, Regina Akello, Bernadette Nakawooya Lwasa, Joselyn Ayikoru, Christine Namulwasira, Patrick Komagum, Isabirye Rebecca, Nayiga Annet, Nakirigya Nuulu, Elizabeth Nionzima, Rose Bwotya, Margret Nankya, Sarah Babirye, Joseph Ngonzi, Cesar Sanchez, Nkonwa Innocent, Kusasira Anitah, Ayiko Jackson, Elizabeth Ndagire, Christine Nanyongo, Dominic Drametu, Grace Meregurwa, Francis Banya, Rita Atim, Emmanuel Byaruhanga, Lema Felix, Hussein Iman, Vincent Oyiengo, Peninah Waigi, Rose Wangui, Faiza Nassir, Musimbi Soita, Rophina Msengeti, Zeinab Zubier, Hillary Mabeya, Antony Wanjala, Henry Mwangi, Brian Liyayi, Evelyn Muthoka, Alfred Osoti, Amos Otara, Veronicah Ongwae, Zahida Qureshi, Victor Wanjohi, Bonface Musila, Kubasu Wekesa, Alex Nyakundi Bosire, Etienne Asonganyi, Alice Ntem, Angeline Njoache, Alice Ashu, André Simo, Robert Tchounzou, Dorothy Keka, Kenfack Bruno, Amadou Ndouoya, Martin Saadio, Mesack Tchana, Odel Gwan, Pauline Assomo, Venantius Mutsu, Nji Eric, Pascal Foumane, Philemon Nsem, Jeanne Fouedjio, Ymele Fouelifack, Pierre Marie Tebeu, Georges Nko’ayissi, Eta Ngole Mbong, Wisal Nabag, Riham Desougi, Hadia Mustafa, Huida Eltaib, Taha Umbeli, Khalid Elfadl, Murwan Ibrahim, Abdalla Mohammed, Awadia Ali, Somia Abdelrahiem, Mohammed Musa, Khidir Awadalla, Samirra Ahmed, Mahdi Bushra, Omer Babiker, Hala Abdullahi, Mohamed Ahmed, Elhassan Safa, Huida Almardi, Duria Rayis, Saeed Abdelrahman Abdelgabar, Zarko Alfirevic, Gillian Houghton, Andrew Sharpe, Jim Thornton, Nick Grace, Carys Smith, Kim Hinshaw, Dawn Edmundson, Paul Ayuk, Alison Bates, George Bugg, Joanne Wilkins, Clare Tower, Alysha Allibone, Eugene Oteng-Ntim, Hussein Kidanto, Ahmad Kazumari, Anna Danford, Matilda Ngarina, Muzdalifat Abeid, Khadija Mayumba, Magreth Zacharia, George Mtove, Leonard Madame, Anthony Massinde, Berno Mwambe, Rwakyendela Onesmo, Sebastian Kitengile Ganyaka, Mohan Regmi, Shyam Gupta, Rabindra Bhatt, Ajay Agrawal, Pramila Pradhan, Nikita Dhakal, Punita Yadav, Gyanendra Karki, Bhola Ram Shrestha, Bellington Vwalika, Mwansa Lubeya, Jane Mumba, Willies Silwimba, Isaiah Hansingo, Noojiri Bopili, Ziche Makukula, Alexander Kawimbe, Mwansa Ketty Lubeya, Willard Mtambo, Mathew Ng’ambi, Kastriot Dallaku, Saimir Cenameri, Ilir Tasha, Aferdita Kruja, Besnik Brahimaj, Armida Tola, Leon Kaza, Mateus Sahani, Desire Tshombe, Elizabeth Buligho, Roger Paluku-Hamuli, Charles Kacha, Kato Faida, Badibanga Musau, Herman Kalyana, Phanny Simisi, Serge Mulyumba, Nzanzu Kikuhe Jason, Jean Robert Lubamba, Willis Missumba, Ferdousi Islam, Nazneen Begum, Sayeba Akhter, Ferdousi Chowdhury, Rokeya Begum, Farjana Basher, Nazlima Nargis, Abu Kholdun, Shahela Jesmin, Shrodha Paul, Hailemariam Segni, Getachew Ayana, William Haleke, Abdulfetah Abdulkadir, Hassen Hussien, Fikre Geremew, Moussa Bambara, Adolphe Somé, Amadou Ly, Roamba Pabakba, Horace Fletcher, Leslie Samuels, Henry Opare-Addo, Roderick Larsen-Reindorf, Kwadwo Nyarko-Jectey, Glen Mola, Malts Wai, Magdy El Rahman, Wafaa Basta, Hussein Khamis, Maria Fernanda Escobar, Liliana Vallecilla, and Gabriel Essetchi Faye. “Effect of Early Tranexamic Acid Administration on Mortality, Hysterectomy, and Other Morbidities in Women with Post-Partum Haemorrhage (Woman): An International, Randomised, Double-Blind, Placebo-Controlled Trial.” The Lancet 389, no. 10084 (May 27, 2017): 2105-16.

In an interview shortly before her death, and before the clinical trial was completed, Utako Okamoto said that she already knew that the trial would show that tranexamic acid works to stop bleeding:

Tranexamic Acid (TXA) History

When the Highly Restrictive Enrollment Criteria for Clinical Trials Steal Hope from the Innocently Desperate, It “Just Feels Unjust”

Muscular dystrophy is sometimes called “Duchenne.” The full name of the disease is “Duchenne muscular dystrophy.” When I was a student at Monroe elementary school a classmate named Frank Goldsberry played on the basketball team. In high school he was in a wheel chair with muscular dystrophy. When the high school principle, Howard Crouch, proposed to do away with the academic honor of valedictorian on the ground that there was some arbitrariness in who received it, I argued that to do would be to diminish the honor given to academic achievement. Crouch relented. It turned out that our valedictorian was Frank Goldsberry. He died a few years later in his early 20s. Frank’s father told my mother that Frank was grateful to me for speaking up. Howard Crouch had a point, but I am glad that after working hard under dire circumstances, Frank received the award.

The F.D.A. should stop mandating randomized double-blind clinical trials (RCTs) so that those who have muscular dystrophy can seek any therapy that they, their parents, and their physicians believe has promise. Not everyone will be cured, but we will learn what works through a Bayesian process of trial and error. More parents and boys will be allowed to hold on to hope.

(p. D1) Lucas was 5 before his parents, Bill and Marci Barton of Grand Haven, Mich., finally got an explanation for his difficulties standing up or climbing stairs. The diagnosis: muscular dystrophy.

Mr. Barton turned to Google.

“The first thing I read was, ‘no cure, in a wheelchair in their teens, pass in their 20s,” Mr. Barton said. “I stopped. I couldn’t read any more. I couldn’t handle it.”

Then he found a reason to hope. For the first time ever, there are clinical trials — nearly two dozen — testing treatments that might actually stop the disease.

The problem, as Mr. Barton soon discovered, is that the enrollment criteria are so restrictive that very few children qualify. As a result, families like the Bartons often are turned away.

. . .

Ryan and Brooke Saalman know how hard it can be to know what to do. “We did a lot of praying,” said Ms. Saalman, mother of two boys with Duchenne in Columbus, Ga.

They decided to enroll their oldest son, Jacob, 6, in a trial of a highly experimental drug.

. . .

. . . they discovered that gene therapy may be irreversible. And if it didn’t work, Ja-(p. D3)cob would be ineligible for an even more promising approach in the future: gene editing, to snip out the deadly mutation that causes Duchenne, an effort now in preclinical development.

. . .

The Bartons found out about a gene-therapy trial at Nationwide Children’s Hospital in Columbus, Ohio, testing a treatment by Sarepta Therapeutics.

They watched a miraculous video of a little boy struggling to walk up a flight of stairs before treatment — and then doing it easily afterward.

“This was what we were hoping for,” Mr. Barton said.

Lucas was the right age, and he seemed to qualify. But testing showed that he carries antibodies to the virus used to deliver the treatment. It would not work for him.

The Bartons were drained, devastated. And for now, there is no other trial that Lucas qualifies for.

“I had my put my hopes into this,” Mr. Barton said. “It was the miracle.”

Dr. Jeffrey Bigelow, a neurologist, and his wife, Alexis Bigelow, of Millcreek, Utah, hoped against hope that their son Henri, 8, would qualify for the only gene therapy trial that will accept boys his age.

Then the Bigelows found out that enrollees of Henri’s age have to be able to lie down and then stand up with their hands at their sides in less than 10 seconds.

It took Henri 10 seconds to do that last spring, when he was evaluated for another trial. Now it would probably take him 20 seconds, his father said.

“It feels like Henri is being punished for losing the ability to stand up from the ground too soon,” Dr. Bigelow said.

He also worries about older boys with Duchenne who are lucky enough to still walk. They are shut out from the trial because they are not yet in wheelchairs. And other trials won’t accept boys that old.

“These are boys who, like Henri, desperately need the treatment, and if they don’t get it in the next one to two years, likely will be confined to a wheelchair, to never walk again,” Dr. Bigelow said.

“This just feels unjust.”

For the full story see:

Gina Kolata. “One Shot To Qualify For Hope.” The New York Times (Tuesday, March 26, 2019 [sic]): D1 & D3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date March 25, 2019 [sic], and has the title “For Many Boys With Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy, Bright Hope Lies Just Beyond Reach.”)

Rigid Guidelines Don’t Allow for Individualizing Treatment and Discount the Doctor’s Clinical Judgment

The criticism of the Clovers sepsis clinical trial is that the the treatment and placebo arms of the trial each require rigid adherence to a protocol, and such adherence rules out personalizing individual treatment based on individual differences among patients and doctors’ clinical judgment based on past experiences. That criticism seems plausible and also seems to apply, not just to the Clovers sepsis clinical trial, but to all< randomized double-blind clinical trials.

(p. D1) A large government trial comparing treatments for a life-threatening condition called sepsis is putting participants at risk of organ failure and even death, critics charge, and should be immediately shut down.

A detailed analysis of the trial design prepared by senior investigators at the National Institutes of Health Clinical Center in Bethesda, Md., concluded that the study “places seriously ill patients at risk without the possibility of gaining information that can provide benefits either to the subjects or to future patients.”

In a letter to the federal Office for Human Research Protection, representatives of Public Citizen’s Health Research Group compared the study, called Clovers, to “an experiment that would be conducted on laboratory animals.”

“The human subjects of the Clovers trial, as designed and currently conducted, are unwitting guinea pigs in a physiology experiment,” Dr. Michael Carome and Dr. Sidney M. Wolfe wrote in their letter.

Begun in March, Clovers is funded by the N.I.H. — despite the criticism of its own investigators — and aims to enroll 2,320 pa-(p. D3)tients at 44 hospitals around the country.

. . .

At issue is whether patients participating in Clovers are being given treatment that deviates from usual care — so much so that lives may be endangered by the research.  . . .

When patients experience septic shock, current guidelines call for raising blood pressure by administering fluids within the first three hours of care, and then administering vasopressors within the first six hours if patients do not respond to fluids.

Vasopressors can be administered early on, during or after the infusion of fluids; a new treatment guideline for hospitals says the drugs should be started within the first hour if patients aren’t responding to intravenous fluids.

Many physicians have been critical of rigid guidelines like this one because they don’t allow for individualizing treatment and appear to discount the doctor’s clinical judgment.

Both fluids in large amounts and vasopressors can cause serious complications, but when a patient’s condition continues to deteriorate, doctors use both interventions, adjusting them depending on the severity of illness.

They generally start with fluids, which in small amounts are considered less toxic than vasopressors.

But participants in Clovers are randomly assigned to a “liberal fluids” group who receive large infusions of fluids in a very short time but limits the use of vasopressors, or to a “restrictive fluids” group in which fluids are minimized and drug treatment begun earlier.

For the full story see:

Roni Caryn Rabin. “Critics Demand Halt of a Sepsis Trial.” The New York Times (Tuesday, September 25, 2018 [sic]): D1 & D3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date Sept. 24, 2018 [sic], and has the title “Trial by Fire: Critics Demand That a Huge Sepsis Study Be Stopped.”)

The Number of Alzheimer’s Patients Is Too Few to Populate the Many Promising Clinical Trials

When the F.D.A. mandates randomized double-blind clinical trials (RCTs) be successfully performed before allowing the use of a new drug, it also mandates that diverse promising drugs will never be tested. Some of those drugs might help or even cure Alzheimer’s. The reason that some diverse promising drugs will never be tested, as explained by Gina Kolata in the passage quoted below, is that there are too few diagnosed and willing Alzheimer’s patients to conduct the number and kind of RCTs that the government mandates, for all the promising drugs under development. What is the alternative to mandated RCTs? Allow physicians to prescribe drugs that have a promising rationale. If their patients benefit the physicians will continue to prescribe the drug and they will tell their colleagues.

(p. D1) The task facing Eli Lilly, the giant pharmaceutical company, sounds simple enough: Find 375 people with early Alzheimer’s disease for a bold new clinical trial aiming to slow or stop memory loss.

There are 5.4 million Alzheimer’s patients in the United States. You’d think it would be easy to find that many participants for a trial like this one.

But it’s not. And the problem has enormous implications for treatment of a disease that terrifies older Americans and has strained families in numbers too great to count.

The Global Alzheimer’s Platform Foundation, which is helping recruit participants for the Lilly trial, estimates that to begin finding participants, it will have to inform 15,000 to 18,000 people in the right age groups about the effort.

Of these, nearly 2,000 must pass the initial screening to be selected for further tests to see if they qualify.

Just 20 percent will meet the criteria to enroll in Lilly’s trial: They must be aged 60 to 89, have mild but progressive memory loss for at least six months, and have two types of brain scans showing Alzheimer’s is underway.

Yet an 80 percent screening failure rate is typical for Alzheimer’s trials, said John Dwyer, president of the foundation. There is just no good way to quickly diagnose the disease.

The onerous process of locating just 375 patients illustrates a grim truth: finding patients on whom to test new Alzheimer’s treatments is becoming an insurmountable obstacle — no matter how promising the trial.

With brain scans, lab tests and memory tests, the cost per diagnosis alone is daunting — as much as $100,000 for each person who ends up enrolled in a trial, Mr. Dwyer said — even before they begin the experimental treatment.

Complicating the problem, the number of trials has exploded in recent years. There (p. D4) are more than 100 Alzheimer’s studies looking for a whopping 25,000 participants, Mr. Dwyer said.

To begin filling them all, 37.5 million patients in the right age group would first have to be informed. Ten percent would be referred to a trial site for screening.

Just 4 percent will move forward with an evaluation, and of these, just over 17 percent will drop out, given the current rate, leaving roughly 125,000 to be screened. And with an 80 percent screening failure rate, that leaves 25,000 participants of the 37.5 million who were first informed.

The numbers make it clear: There’s no way scientists are going to find 25,000 participants for all of the Alzheimer’s trials that have been approved.

“The irony is that the science has never been more promising,” Mr. Dwyer said. “How many promising drugs will be abandoned or their evaluation seriously delayed? Some good science is going to be left on cutting-room floor.”

For the full story see:

Gina Kolata. “Alzheimer’s Trials Hit a Roadblock.” The New York Times (Tuesday, July 24, 2018 [sic]): D1 & D4.

(Note: the online version of the story has the date July 23, 2018 [sic], and has the title “For Scientists Racing to Cure Alzheimer’s, the Math Is Getting Ugly.”)

F.D.A. Chief Sets Low Bar for Cancer Progress–Three Months of Longer Life Is “A Major Therapeutic Advance”

F.D.A. regulations have slowed progress toward curing cancer. Rather than reduce regulations, the head of the F.D.A. redefines “progress” as occurring when a new drug increases average lifespan by a mere three months.

(p. D3) Was there a moment when you realized a new era had begun?

It was a gradual thing. I wish I could say I had an “a-ha” moment.

I remember though, one of our first approvals of a PD-1 drug (a drug that unleashes the immune system to fight cancer). A division director sent me an email with a survival curve for patients in a study. It was a Friday afternoon. I saw it and I nearly fell off my seat. It was such a positive study for these patients with squamous cell lung cancer. They lived an average of six months with standard chemotherapy. With the new drug they lived 9.2 months.

I called the division director and said, “What are we going to do to expedite this?”

We had to get a submission from the drug company and that can take several months. Sometimes it takes six months and sometimes up to a year because of the voluminous amount of material that must be provided.

We got the submission in a couple of months. Nivolumab was approved in March of 2015.

It was a major therapeutic advance. These were people who heretofore had few therapeutic options.

. . .

. . ., my regret? I won’t be here in 2049, my presumed 50th F.D.A. anniversary.

I would love to see what oncology looks like given the rapid changes in the past 25 years. Hang on tight. The velocity of innovation will only increase.

For the full interview see:

Gina Kolata, interviewer. “F.D.A.’s Cancer Chief Is Forward Focused.” The New York Times (Tuesday, November 19, 2024): D3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the interview has the date Nov. 8, 2024, and has the title “He’s the F.D.A.’s Cancer Chief, Not a Fortune Teller.” The question is from the interviewer Gina Kolata. The rest of the words are quoted from the answers of Dr. Richard Pazdur.)

Peppermint at One Time Required a Prescription, While Strychnine Was Sold Over-the-Counter

I suspect I would not much like the Remaking the American Patient book–it seems to blame capitalism for all of the ills of the healthcare system. But it does include one compelling example of the limitations of government regulation of drugs: allowing strychnine while restricting peppermint.

(p. D3) Medical historians who focus on the conquest of dire diseases serve up narratives of progress and triumph. Not Ms. Tomes, a professor of history at Stony Brook University, who has chosen to examine instead the health care experience of average healthy citizens, the great silent majority whose lives are punctuated by a variety of minor ills and only the occasional major calamity.

. . .

Are you perplexed by our regulatory chaos, with layer upon layer of well-meaning but persistently ineffective efforts to guarantee the safety of medical services? It turns out we come from a long tradition of such inadequacy: Patient safety has been the holy grail for everyone, long sought, never achieved.

Drug regulatory efforts have been inconsistent and confusing. (At one point in the 1940s, peppermint drops were available by prescription, while strychnine could be freely purchased by anyone).

For the full review see:

Abigail Zuger, M.D. “When Patients Became Purchasers.” The New York Times (Tuesday, January 26, 2016 [sic]): D3.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date Jan. 23, 2016 [sic], and has the title “Review: ‘Remaking the American Patient’.”)

The book under review above is:

Tomes, Nancy. Remaking the American Patient: How Madison Avenue and Modern Medicine Turned Patients into Consumers, Studies in Social Medicine. Chapel Hill: The University of North Carolina Press, 2016.

Scientists Invest Much Money and Time to Develop Machines Able to Sniff as Well as a Dog

Seven years have passed since the article quoted below predicted that sniffing devices would be available to clinicians in three to five years. I believe the prediction was premature. In the meantime, we should be making more and better use of dog noses to sniff out disease.

(p. D5) But not every physician’s nose is a precision instrument, and dogs, while adept at sniffing out cancer, get distracted. So researchers have been trying for decades to figure out how to build an inexpensive odor sensor for quick, reliable and noninvasive diagnoses.

. . .

“You’re seeing a convergence of technology now, so we can actually run large-scale clinical studies to get the data to prove odor analysis has real utility,” said Billy Boyle, co-founder and president of operations at Owlstone, a manufacturer of chemical sensors in Cambridge, England.

Mr. Boyle, an electronics engineer, formed the company with two friends in 2004 to develop sensors to detect chemical weapons and explosives for customers, including the United States government. But when Mr. Boyle’s girlfriend and eventual wife, Kate Gross, was diagnosed with colon cancer in 2012, his focus shifted to medical sensors, with an emphasis on cancer detection.

Ms. Gross died at the end of 2014. That she might still be alive if her cancer had been detected earlier, Mr. Boyle said, continues to be a “big motivator.”

. . .

A similar diagnostic technology is being developed by an Israeli chemical engineer, Hossam Haick, who was also touched by cancer.

“My college roommate had leukemia, and it made me want to see whether a sensor could be used for treatment,” said Mr. Haick, a professor at Technion-Israel Institute of Technology in Haifa. “But then I realized early diagnosis could be as important as treatment itself.”

. . .

In the United States, a team of researchers from the Monell Chemical Senses Center and the University of Pennsylvania received an $815,000 grant in February [2017] from the Kleberg Foundation to advance work on a prototype odor sensor that detects ovarian cancer in samples of blood plasma.

. . .

“We are trying to make the device work the way we understand mammalian olfaction works,” said Charlie Johnson, director of the Nano/Bio Interface Center at the University of Pennsylvania, who is leading the fabrication effort. “DNA gives unique characteristics for this process.”

In addition to these groups, teams in Austria, Switzerland and Japan also are developing odor sensors to diagnose disease.

“I think the fact that you’re seeing so much activity both in commercial and academic settings shows that we’re getting a lot closer,” said Cristina Davis, a biomedical engineer and professor at the University of California, Davis, who also is helping to develop an odor sensor to diagnose disease.

“My estimate is it’s a three- to five-year time frame” before such tools are available to clinicians, she added.

For the full story see:

Kate Murphy. “The Race to Sniff Out Disease.” The New York Times (Tuesday, May 2, 2017 [sic]): D5.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed year, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date May 1, 2017 [sic], and has the title “One Day, a Machine Will Smell Whether You’re Sick.”)

Some Mostly Useless Procedures “Enrich the Pockets of Medical Practitioners”

(p. D5) Many of the procedures people undergo to counter chronic knee pain in the hopes of avoiding a knee replacement have limited or no evidence to support them. Some enrich the pockets of medical practitioners while rarely benefiting patients for more than a few months.

I wish I had known that before I had succumbed to wishful thinking and tried them all.

. . .

Serious questions are now being raised about the benefits of the arthroscopic procedures that millions of people endure in hopes of delaying, if not avoiding, total knee replacements.

The latest challenge, published in May [2017] in BMJ by an expert panel that systematically reviewed 12 well-designed trials and 13 observational studies, concluded that arthroscopic surgery for degenerative knee arthritis and meniscal tears resulted in no lasting pain relief or improved function.

Three months after the procedure, fewer than 15 percent of patients experienced at best “a small or very small improvement in pain and function,” effects that disappeared completely within a year.

As with all invasive procedures, the surgery is not without risks, infection being the most common, though not the only, complication.

Furthermore, the panel added, “Most patients will experience an important improvement in pain and function without arthroscopy.”

For the full commentary see:

Jane E. Brody. “Personal Health; What I Wish I’d Known About My Knees.” The New York Times (Tuesday, July 4, 2017 [sic]): D5.

(Note: ellipsis, and bracketed year, added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date July 3, 2017 [sic], and has the same title as the print version.)

The May 2017 BMJ academic review article mentioned above, is:

Siemieniuk, Reed A. C., Ian A. Harris, Thomas Agoritsas, Rudolf W. Poolman, Romina Brignardello-Petersen, Stijn Van de Velde, Rachelle Buchbinder, Martin Englund, Lyubov Lytvyn, Casey Quinlan, Lise Helsingen, Gunnar Knutsen, Nina Rydland Olsen, Helen Macdonald, Louise Hailey, Hazel M. Wilson, Anne Lydiatt, and Annette Kristiansen. “Arthroscopic Surgery for Degenerative Knee Arthritis and Meniscal Tears: A Clinical Practice Guideline.” BMJ 357 (May 10, 2017).

Ozempic Profits Poured into Massive Supercomputer Meant to Power AI for Future Drug Development

I think AI is currently being oversold. But I am very ignorant and could be wrong, so I favor a diversity of privately-funded bets on what will work to bring us future breakthrough innovations.

(p. B2) Two of the world’s most important companies are now in a partnership born from the success of their most revolutionary products. The supercomputer was built with technology from Nvidia—and money from the Novo Nordisk Foundation. The charitable organization has become supremely wealthy as the largest shareholder in Novo Nordisk, which means this project was made possible by the breakthrough drugs that have sent the Danish company’s stock price soaring.

To put it another way, it’s the first AI supercomputer funded by Ozempic.

It was named Gefion after the goddess of Norse mythology who turned her sons into oxen so they could plow the land that would become Denmark’s largest island.

. . .

Whatever you call it, Gefion is a beast. It is bigger than a basketball court. It weighs more than 30 tons. It took six months to manufacture and install. It also required an investment of $100 million.

. . .

When it’s fully operational, the AI supercomputer will be available to entrepreneurs, academics and scientists inside companies like Novo Nordisk, which stands to benefit from its help with drug discovery, protein design and digital biology.

For the full commentary see:

Ben Cohen. “It’s a Giant New Supercomputer That Might Transform an Entire Country.” The Wall Street Journal (Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024): B2.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date November 1, 2024, and has the title “Science of Success; The Giant Supercomputer Built to Transform an Entire Country—and Paid For by Ozempic.”)

“Most Published Research Findings Are False”

(p. 10) How much of biomedical research is actually wrong? John Ioannidis, an epidemiologist and health-policy researcher at Stanford, was among the first to sound the alarm with a 2005 article in the journal PLOS Medicine. He showed that small sample sizes and bias in study design were chronic problems in the field and served to grossly overestimate positive results. His dramatic bottom line was that “most published research findings are false.”

The problem is especially acute in laboratory studies with animals, in which scientists often use just a few animals and fail to select them randomly. Such errors inevitably introduce bias. Large-scale human studies, of the sort used in drug testing, are less likely to be compromised in this way, but they have their own failings: It’s tempting for scientists (like everyone else) (p. C2) to see what they want to see in their findings, and data may be cherry-picked or massaged to arrive at a desired conclusion.

A paper published in February [2017] in the journal PLOS One by Estelle Dumas-Mallet and colleagues at the University of Bordeaux tracked 156 biomedical studies that had been the subject of stories in major English-language newspapers. Follow-up studies, they showed, overturned half of those initial positive results (though such disconfirmation rarely got follow-up news coverage). The studies dealt with a wide range of issues, including the biology of attention-deficit hyperactivity disorder, new breast-cancer susceptibility genes, a reported link between pesticide exposure and Parkinson’s disease, and the role of a virus in autism.

Reviews by pharmaceutical companies have delivered equally grim numbers. In 2011, scientists at Bayer published a paper in the journal Nature Reviews Drug Discovery showing that they could replicate only 25% of the findings of various studies. The following year, C. Glenn Begley, the head of cancer research at Amgen, reported in the journal Nature that he and his colleagues could reproduce only six of 53 seemingly promising studies, even after enlisting help from some of the original scientists.

With millions of dollars on the line, industry scientists overseeing clinical trials with human subjects have a stronger incentive to follow high standards. Such studies are often designed in cooperation with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration, which ultimately reviews the findings. Still, most clinical trials produce disappointing results, often because the lab studies on which they are based were themselves flawed.

For the full essay see:

Harris, Richard. “Dismal Science In the Search for Cures.” The Wall Street Journal (Saturday, April 8, 2017 [sic]): C1-C2.

(Note: bracketed year added.)

(Note: the online version of the essay was updated April 7, 2017 [sic], and has the title “The Breakdown in Biomedical Research.”)

The essay quoted above is adapted from Mr. Harris’s book:

Harris, Richard. Rigor Mortis: How Sloppy Science Creates Worthless Cures, Crushes Hope, and Wastes Billions. New York: Basic Books, 2017.

The 2005 paper by Ioannidis mentioned above is:

Ioannidis, John P. A. “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.” PLoS Medicine 2, no. 8 (2005): 696-701.