Category: Covid-19

Boris Johnson Proud He Got Covid-19 Vaccines to Brits Fast

The article quoted below is based on Mark Landler’s interview with Boris Johnson that Johnson gave to promote his Unleashed book. Johnson’s “proudest achievement” is the speed with which British citizens received Covid-19 vaccines. Similarly, I believe one of Donald Trump’s proudest achievements during his first administration was the speed with which his Operation Warp Speed brought American citizens the Covid-19 vaccines.

(p. C5) In March 2021, during the depths of the pandemic, Johnson wrote that he weighed a military raid on a warehouse in the Netherlands to seize five million doses of Covid vaccine that he said were being held illegally by the Dutch government. Having run through the options, one of his military advisers warned him that this would constitute an invasion of a NATO ally.

“I knew he was right,” Johnson wrote. “I secretly agreed with what they all thought but did not want to say aloud: that the whole thing was nuts.”

However harebrained, the scheme was in the service of what Johnson casts as his proudest achievement in government: Britain’s vaccine rollout, one of the fastest of any advanced economy. He credits not just the brilliance of the scientists at Oxford who formulated the AstraZeneca vaccine or the National Health Service, which rapidly distributed it, but also Brexit, which he said enabled Britain to approve the vaccine faster than its European Union neighbors.

Critics insist that Britain could have acted unilaterally, even if it were still a member of the European Medicines Agency, which approves drugs for the E.U. Johnson dismissed that as magical thinking. “Did the Pasteur Institute?” he asked. “Did the Max Planck Institute? Did anybody else?”

For the full story, see:

Mark Landler. “A Case for Trump, And Perhaps Himself.” The New York Times. (Weds., October 16, 2024): C5.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version has the date Oct. 12, 2024, and has the title “Boris Johnson Makes a Case for Trump’s Return, and Perhaps, His Own.”)

Boris Johnson’s book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Johnson, Boris. Unleashed. New York: Harper, 2024.

Director of the N.I.H. Was “Subject to Censorship by the Actions of the Biden Administration”

During the Covid-19 pandemic, I had an invited essay cancelled by the OECD in which I argued for freedom of speech in science, and especially for toleration of a diversity of views during the pandemic. So I have sympathy for the attacks Dr. Bhattacharya suffered during the pandemic and wish him well as the Director of the National Institutes of Health.

(p. B1) Dr. [Jay] Bhattacharya, who has a medical degree and is a professor of medicine but never practiced, burst into the spotlight in October 2020, when he co-wrote an anti-lockdown treatise, the Great Barrington Declaration. It argued for “focused protection” — a strategy to protect the elderly and vulnerable while letting the virus spread among younger, healthier people.

Many scientists countered that walling off at-risk populations from the rest of society was a pipe dream.

The nation’s medical leadership, including Dr. Francis S. Collins, who retired last week, and Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, then director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, denounced the plan. Referring to Dr. Bhattacharya and his co-authors as “fringe epidemiologists,” Dr. Collins wrote in an email that “there needs to be a quick and devastating takedown of its premises.”

Dr. Bhattacharya told senators on Wednesday [March 5, 2025] that he had been “subject to censorship by the actions of the Biden administration.” Past N.I.H. officials, he said, “oversaw a culture of cover-up, obfuscation and a lack of tolerance for ideas that differ from theirs.”

For the full story see:

Benjamin Mueller and Sheryl Gay Stolberg. “Guarded Nominee for N.I.H. Faces Sharp Questions on Vaccines and Research Cuts.” The New York Times (Thursday, March 6, 2025): A18.

(Note: bracketed date added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date March 5, 2025, and has the title “Guarded N.I.H. Nominee Faces Sharp Questions on Vaccines and Research Cuts.”)

Croatian Government Does Not Learn from Distant Past (or Recent Past) That Price Controls Do Not Work

In Croatia, as in the United States, inflation resulted when each government “flooded the country with cash” to buy votes during the Covid pandemic.

(p. 4) In 301 A.D., the Emperor Diocletian made a bold but ultimately unsuccessful bid to address the inflation that was rampaging across the eastern half of the divided Roman Empire.

Prices of everything from purple thread and feathers to slaves and cattle were dictated by his Edict on Maximum Prices. Violators faced the death penalty. Diocletian gave up power about four years after issuing his edict, watching his measure fail from his sprawling retirement palace in the heart of what became the city of Split in Croatia.

Now Croatia’s government is trying a similar tactic to rein in prices that have soared in recent years and sparked protests and retail boycotts by the country’s beleaguered consumers.

. . .

The rules that came into effect this month are the Croatian government’s third attempt at controlling prices by fiat since September 2022. The first two efforts were largely ineffective, with retailers simply refusing to stock most price-controlled goods.

. . .

Economists blame the increases on a three-headed hydra of pandemic-era economic rescue packages that flooded the country with cash, increases in public sector wages and retailers rounding up prices after Croatia adopted the euro in 2023.

. . .

John H. Cochrane, an economist and fellow at the Hoover Institution, a research center, pointed to the role Diocletian’s edict played in causing shortages and fueling a black market.

“It’s like trying to stem the symptoms rather than treating the underlying disease,” Mr. Cochrane said of price controls. “It offers people the appearance of help for a while, and then it takes a few weeks or, a month or two, for all the problems to break out.”

For the full story, see:

Joe Orovic. “A Croatian Plan to Rein In Prices Echoes the Tack of an Emperor.” The New York Times, First Section. (Sun., March 9, 2025): 4.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version was updated March 10, 2025, and has the title “Echoing a Roman Emperor, Croatia Tries to Cap Soaring Prices.” Where there is a slight difference in wording, the passages quoted above follow the online version.)

Tim Friede’s “Daredevilry” in Taking 650 Venom Injections and 200 Poisonous Snake Bites to Help Create a Universal Antivenom “for Humanity”

Back during Covid, over 38,000 adults volunteered to participate in a “challenge” clinical trial of the new vaccines, but such trials were not allowed. In a challenge trial each participant receives the vaccine and then is exposed to the disease. Phase 3 trials for efficacy can be completed much more quickly, with many fewer participants, and at much lower costs, if the trials are “challenge” trials.

We allow people the freedom to dangerous actions for fun or excitement, or to help humanity, like Tim Friede (below) injecting snake venom and letting snakes bite him. Why then did we not allow challenge trials with the Covid vaccine?

Note on another issue, that the researchers are planning in their next step to test their antivenom on dogs who are bitten by snakes. This is a good example of my ideal use of dogs in medical research–where the trial aims at benefits for both the humans AND the dogs.

(p. A1) Over nearly 18 years, the man, Tim Friede, 57, injected himself with more than 650 carefully calibrated, escalating doses of venom to build his immunity to 16 deadly snake species. He also allowed the snakes — mostly one at a time, but sometimes two, . . . — to sink their sharp fangs into him about 200 times.

This bit of daredevilry (one name for it) may now help to solve a dire global health problem. More than 600 species of venomous snakes roam the earth, biting as many as 2.7 million people, killing about 120,000 people and maiming 400,000 others — numbers thought to be vast underestimates.

In Mr. Friede’s blood, scientists say they have identified antibodies that are capable of neutralizing the venom of multiple snake (p. A19) species, a step toward creating a universal antivenom, they reported on Friday [May 2, 2025] in the journal Cell.

“I’m really proud that I can do something in life for humanity, to make a difference for people that are 8,000 miles away, that I’m never going to meet, never going to talk to, never going to see, probably,” said Mr. Friede, who lives in Two Rivers, Wis., where venomous snakes are not much of a threat.

. . .

“This is a bigger problem than the first world realizes,” said Jacob Glanville, founder and chief executive of Centivax, a company that aims to produce broad-spectrum vaccines, and lead author on the study.

Dr. Glanville and his colleagues found that two powerful antibodies from Mr. Freide’s blood, when combined with a drug that blocks neurotoxins, protected mice from the venom of 19 deadly snake species of a large family found in different geographical regions.

This is an extraordinary feat, according to experts not involved in the work. Most antivenoms can counter the venom from just one or a few related snake species from one region.

The study suggests that cocktails of antitoxins may successfully prevent deaths and injuries from all snake families, said Nicholas Casewell, a researcher at the Liverpool School of Tropical Medicine in England.

. . .

There were other mishaps — accidental bites, anaphylactic shocks, hives, blackouts. Mr. Friede describes himself as a nondegree scientist, but “there’s no college in the world that can teach you how to do it,” he said. “I was doing it on my own as best I could.”

Two teams of scientists sampled Mr. Friede’s blood over the years, but neither project led anywhere. By the time he met Dr. Glanville, in 2017, he was nearly ready to give up.

Dr. Glanville had been pursuing what scientists call broadly acting antibodies as the basis for universal vaccines against viruses. He grew up in a Maya village in the Guatemala highlands, and became intrigued by the possibility of using the same approach for universal antivenom.

. . .

The researchers next plan to test the treatment in Australia in any dogs that are brought into veterinary clinics for snakebites. They are also hoping to identify another component, perhaps also from Mr. Friede’s blood, that would extend full protection to all 19 snake species that were subjects of the research.

Mr. Friede himself is done now, however. His last bite was in November 2018, from a water cobra. He was divorced — his wife and children had moved out. “Well, that’s it, enough is enough,” he recalled thinking.

He misses the snakes, he said, but not the painful bites. “I’ll probably get back into it in the future,” he said. “But for right now, I’m happy where things are at.”

For the full story see:

Apoorva Mandavilli. “Man of 200 Snake Bites May Be the Antivenom.” The New York Times (Saturday, May 3, 2025): A1 & A19.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date May 2, 2025, and has the title “Universal Antivenom May Grow Out of Man Who Let Snakes Bite Him 200 Times.”)

The academic article in the journal Cell mentioned above is:

Glanville, Jacob, Mark Bellin, Sergei Pletnev, Baoshan Zhang, Joel Christian Andrade, Sangil Kim, David Tsao, Raffaello Verardi, Rishi Bedi, Sindy Liao, Raymond Newland, Nicholas L. Bayless, Sawsan Youssef, Ena S. Tully, Tatsiana Bylund, Sujeong Kim, Hannah Hirou, Tracy Liu, and Peter D. Kwong. “Snake Venom Protection by a Cocktail of Varespladib and Broadly Neutralizing Human Antibodies.” Cell 188 (2025): 1-18.

Covid Handouts Raised Government Debt, Leading to Higher Inflation

During Covid, Democrats in Congress pushed for ever-greater government handouts to voters, that often were handed out to fraudsters, and substantially increased the U.S. debt. Former Democratic Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers predicted that this would fuel inflation. Recent research by Ernie Tedeschi, the former Chief Economist at President Biden’s Council of Economic Advisors, confirms that increased debt results in higher prices.

The New York Times article summarizing Tedeschi’s research is:

Colby Smith. “Research Shows Link Between High Government Debt and Rising Prices.” The New York Times (Thurs., March 13, 2025): B3.

(Note: the online version of the article has the date March 12, 2024, and has the title “High Government Debt Is Seen as Stoking Inflation, Research Shows.”)

Colby Smith identifies Tedeschi as the author of the following research paper. The Budget Lab web site, where the paper is posted, does not identify the author:

“The Inflationary Risks of Rising Federal Deficits and Debt.” The Budget Lab at Yale. March 12, 2025.

Pasteur Saw That “Germs Were Everywhere in the Air”

The passages quoted below show how Pasteur respected his audience by finding a clear and compelling way to communicate that “germs” float in the air. The essay quoted below is adapted from Zimmer’s recently released Air-Borne book.

In other parts of Air-Borne, Zimmer discusses how the W.H.O. and the C.D.C. ignored the implications of the findings of Pasteur and others, relevant to the air-borne (aerosol) spread of diseases such as Covid-19.

(p. D8) On the evening of April 7, 1864, in an amphitheater filled with Parisian elites, Pasteur stood surrounded by lab equipment and a lamp to project images on a screen. He told the audience it would not leave the soiree without recognizing that the air was rife with invisible germs. “We can’t see them now, for the same reason that, in broad daylight, we can’t see the stars,” he said.

At Pasteur’s command, the lights went out, save for a cone of light that revealed floating motes of dust. Pasteur asked the audience to picture a rain of dust falling on every surface in the amphitheater. That dust, he said, was alive.

Pasteur then used a pump to drive air through a sterile piece of cotton. After soaking the cotton in water, he put a drop under a microscope. He projected its image on a screen for the audience to see. Alongside soot and bits of plaster, they could make out squirming corpuscles. “These, gentlemen, are the germs of microscopic beings,” Pasteur said.

Germs were everywhere in the air, he said — kicked up in dust, taking flights of unknown distances and then settling back to the ground, where they worked their magic of fermentation. Germs broke down “everything on the surface of this globe which once had life, in the general economy of creation,” Pasteur said.

“This role is immense, marvelous, positively moving,” he added.

The lecture ended with a standing ovation. Pasteur’s hunt for floating germs elevated him to the highest ranks of French science.

For the full essay see:

Zimmer, Carl. “He Showed That Germs Floated in Air.” The New York Times (Tuesday, February 18, 2025): D8.

(Note: ellipsis, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the essay was updated Feb. 18, 2025, and has the title “Louis Pasteur’s Relentless Hunt for Germs Floating in the Air.”)

Zimmer’s essay, quoted above, is adapted from his book:

Zimmer, Carl. Air-Borne: The Hidden History of the Life We Breathe. New York: Dutton, 2025.

Pfizer Waited Until Just After Trump Lost 2020 Election to Announce Success of Trump’s “Operation Warp Speed”

I have been suspicious of the timing of Pfizer’s announcement of the efficacy of their vaccine. They announced the efficacy the day after Joe Biden was proclaimed the winner of the election. They deny the obvious inference. The denial could be true, or they could be counting on our gullibility.

I remain suspicious.

(p. A3) Soon after President Trump won the presidential election in November [2024], British drugmaker GSK brought an unusual claim to federal prosecutors in Manhattan, according to people familiar with the matter.

A senior GSK scientist, who formerly worked at rival Pfizer, had told GSK colleagues that Pfizer delayed announcing the success of its Covid vaccine in 2020 until after that year’s election.

. . .

Over the past year, Pfizer executives including Chief Executive Albert Bourla have sought to build a relationship with Trump, . . .

. . .

During the development of Pfizer’s vaccine, Bourla aggressively pushed his employees to develop the vaccine and initially had wanted the vaccine done by October [2020]. He gave similar timelines publicly, telling the “Today” show that the company would know if it worked by October [2020].

. . .

Pfizer filmed and broadcast the moment executives learned the results from Pfizer’s senior scientists, on Nov. 8 [2020].

By then, Trump had lost the election. Joe Biden was declared the winner of the contest on Nov. 7 [2020]. Two days later, Pfizer said an early analysis showed its vaccine to work safely in protecting people from Covid-19.

Just after midnight on Nov. 10, [2020] Trump posted on social media: “As I have long said, @Pfizer and the others would only announce a Vaccine after the Election, because they didn’t have the courage to do it before.”

For the full story see:

Josh Dawsey, Gregory Zuckerman, and Jared S. Hopkins. “Tip on Pfizer Vaccine Timing Is Probed.” The Wall Street Journal (Thurs., March 27, 2025): A3.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed years, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story was updated March 26, 2025, and has the title “U.S. Prosecutors Probe Tip About Timing of Pfizer Vaccine.”)

Covid Citizen Scientists Provided Quick and Useful Knowledge

The essay quoted below claims that patients can provide useful knowledge about the symptoms of the diseases that afflict them. I agree, but would go even further. One source of knowledge that all humans have, and even non-humans to some extent, is the observation of patterns. Patients can observe which behaviors, medicines, circumstances make their disease better and which make their disease worse. Of course sometimes patients can be biased, can fool themselves. That can be a reason that patients disagree about what works. But another reason that patients can disagree is that patients have different bodies so that what works for one patient may not work for another. Researchers and clinicians are increasingly recognizing this when they advocate and practice “personalized” (aka “precision”) medicine.

And the academic and popular literatures have exaggerated the extent to which biases undermine our observation of patterns. The exaggeration is partly because bias is bad news, and bad news sells. The usual reliability of observed patterns has been persuasively defended in Gary Klein’s The Sources of Power.

Note another point in the passages quoted below. Patients have a sense of “urgency” that scientists often lack. Sometimes quick imperfect conclusions are actionable, while slow peer-reviewed conclusions are too late to be actionable. And sometimes peer-reviewed conclusions give us conclusions that are both slow and imperfect. Ioannides argues that “most published research findings are false” (2005). I am currently reading Piller’s Doctored that discusses highly-cited papers from the Alzheimer’s literature that illustrate Ioannides’s claim.

(p. C3) A month after her Covid-19 diagnosis last March [2020], Lisa McCorkell wanted to know why she was still struggling with a cough, shortness of breath and other debilitating symptoms. Her doctors didn’t have answers, so she and a group of other Covid patients took matters into their own hands. They formed a research group on a Slack channel and launched their own study.

“I was looking for validation, that my experience was reflected in the others,” said Ms. McCorkell, 28, of Oakland, Calif., who was finishing her graduate studies in public policy when she was diagnosed.

. . .

Covid citizen scientists generated information about symptoms, such as neurological issues, that didn’t garner a lot of attention at the start of the pandemic. They highlighted the overlooked challenges faced by people whose symptoms last longer than 28 days. The studies were limited by drawing largely from patients who joined online support groups, but they gained the kind of recognition by professional scientists that citizen science doesn’t always get.  . . .

The pandemic has created an opening for citizen scientists, because even now clinicians don’t fully understand the virus. Early clinical trial data comes mainly from studies involving hospitalized patients, whose experiences may not apply to those who are suffering but don’t end up in the emergency room.

. . .

Patients who want to lead Covid research projects often must navigate tension between their sense of urgency and the traditional scientific process, which typically requires a long peer review process before publication in a journal, said Emily Sirotich, a Ph.D. student at McMaster University in Canada. On March 12, the day the WHO declared Covid a pandemic, Ms. Sirotich joined a Twitter conversation between rheumatology patients and doctors, who were on equal footing when it came to Covid: No one understood the disease. “Everyone was worried,” she said.

. . .

Patients wanted to share the survey data right away, but the researchers argued that the scientific community wouldn’t use the information to inform patient care without the validation of going through peer review. “It has to be accurate,” said Ms. Sirotich.

The two groups tried to strike a balance, Ms. Sirotich said. Patients created overview summaries of the raw data that they immediately disseminated to support groups for use in personal decision making. The physicians and patients also co-wrote and submitted articles with more detailed data analysis to peer-reviewed journals and conferences.

“Covid gave us the opportunity to show that patients can produce valid data and reliable information about what they are experiencing,” Ms. Sirotich said.

In December [2020], the Patient-Led Research for Covid-19 group posted a paper based on analyzing data from over 3,700 patients to the MedRxiv public server, which professional scientists have used throughout the pandemic to quickly make results available to the wider community before peer review. The group also plans to submit the paper to a scientific journal.

Eric Topol, director of the Scripps Research Translational Institute in La Jolla, Calif., and a proponent of patients tracking their own health, tweeted the results. “There is a dearth of information about Covid,” Dr. Topol later said. As a professional scientist, he added, “The paper provided invaluable new insights to me.”

For the full essay see:

Amy Dockser Marcus. “Patients Are Doing Their Own Covid-19 Research.” The Wall Street Journal (Saturday, Jan. 30, 2021 [sic]): C3.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed years, added.)

(Note: the online version of the essay has the same date as the print version, and has the title “Covid-19 Patients Are Doing Their Own Research.”)

Marcus’s essay is consistent with the theme of her book:

Marcus, Amy Dockser. We the Scientists: How a Daring Team of Parents and Doctors Forged a New Path for Medicine. New York: Riverhead Books, 2023.

The Gary Klein book I praise in my comments is:

Klein, Gary A. Sources of Power: How People Make Decisions. 20th Anniversary ed. Cambridge, MA: The MIT Press, 2017.

The Ioannidis paper that I quote above is:

Ioannidis, John P. A. “Why Most Published Research Findings Are False.” PLoS Medicine 2, no. 8 (Aug. 2005): 696-701.

The Piller book that I praise in my comments is:

Piller, Charles. Doctored: Fraud, Arrogance, and Tragedy in the Quest to Cure Alzheimer’s. New York: Atria/One Signal Publishers, 2025.

When Levi Strauss Forced Jennifer Sey to Resign for Speaking the Truth on Covid

Knowledge in general, and science in particular, advance through a process of questioning, evidence gathering, and debate. So it remains ironically outrageous that during the Covid pandemic much of the academic, government, and corporate establishment censored or even cancelled those who expressed then-heterodox views. Considerable evidence has since accumulated that Jennifer Sey’s skepticism of Covid school closures was highly justified.

(p. B4) A top Levi Strauss & Co. executive has left the apparel giant, citing clashes with colleagues, including Chief Executive Chip Bergh, over her public views regarding Covid-19 restrictions in schools.

Jennifer Sey, who led the Levi’s brand as president since 2020, said she resigned Sunday after more than 20 years at the company. Ms. Sey, 52 years old, has tweeted frequently and did media interviews to discuss her opposition to school closures through the pandemic.

In an essay posted online Monday [Feb. 14, 2022], Ms. Sey wrote that she was “condemned for speaking out” and that Levi Strauss executives urged her to limit these public statements. She wrote that in a recent meeting with Mr. Bergh, he told her that it was untenable for her to stay.

In a statement Monday [Feb. 14, 2022], Levi Strauss confirmed Ms. Sey had resigned and said it had initiated a search for a new Levi brand president. It appointed another executive, Seth Ellison, to temporarily fill the role.

For the full story, see:

Jacob Gallagher. “Levi Strauss Executive Quits Over Covid Views.” The Wall Street Journal (Tuesday, Feb. 15, 2022 [sic]): B4.

(Note: bracketed dates added.)

(Note: the online version of the story was updated Feb. 14, 2022 [sic], and has the title “Levi’s Executive Resigns, Citing Her Public Views on Covid-19 Curbs.”)

The Hurdles to Getting Paxlovid Reduce Its Use

Requiring prescriptions for most drugs is defended as a way to protect patients. But getting a quick physician appointment, making the appointment, and then getting the prescription filled, can all take nontrivial amounts of time and effort, especially burdensome for the poor or for those with work or family duties. Many drugs, such as Paxlovid for Covid, only work if taken in the early days of the disease. As a result, few people end up taking Paxlovid.

How does that protect patients?

If we respected the right of adult patients to make their own decisions, as soon as they had symptoms of Covid, they could go to a pharmacy and purchase Paxlovid.
Showing respect would both be moral, and would be more effective against the disease.

(p. A19) . . . Paxlovid seems to reduce the chance of hospitalization and death from Covid by more than 85 percent, . . .

. . .

But having drugs, especially highly effective ones like Paxlovid, is critical. And for these medications to succeed they must be taken correctly. People need to start them within five days of an infection, and because of the deficiencies of our testing system and other problems in health care, beginning treatment that quickly is difficult.

. . .

If you test positive, you can’t go straight to a pharmacy for the drug therapy like you did for the test. You need a prescription for the medication, which often requires a doctor’s visit. That presupposes that you have a doctor (many people don’t), and that there’s an appointment available. Before the pandemic, fewer than half of people in the United States could get a same-day or next-day appointment with their provider when they were sick.

If you’re lucky enough to traverse this gantlet successfully, though, you now need to get your prescription filled. Most insurance will restrict where you can get your medications paid for, and it’s hit or miss whether that pharmacy will have pills in stock. If not, hopefully they’ll be in a few days later, but those are precious days.

Too few people understand that much of the U.S. health care system is set up to make it harder for people to get care — an attempt to drive down overall health care spending. That’s why your insurance likely has higher deductibles than it used to, and more visits come with co-pays or coinsurance. But poorer people have a harder time covering these costs, so this worsens disparities and makes it harder for those who need help the most to get it.

We see this play out with Covid-19 treatments. A recent study looked at how efficiently and effectively Medicare beneficiaries (all of whom were elderly) received monoclonal antibody therapy from 2020 to 2021 for Covid. It found that those at highest risk were the least likely to be treated, in large part because it was difficult to navigate these hurdles within the 10 days from infection that treatment requires.

It doesn’t need to be this way.  . . .  Pharmacists could be more empowered to talk to patients about whether the pills are safe for them and distribute pill packs without a prescription if patients qualify.

For the full commentary, see:

Aaron E. Carroll. “Covid Drugs Might Work Well, but Our Health System Doesn’t.” The New York Times (Monday, February 14, 2022 [sic]): A19.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Feb. 13, 2022 [sic], and has the title “Covid Drugs May Work Well, but Our Health System Doesn’t.”)

A Nimble Evolving Virus Can Outpace Sluggish Vaccine Clinical Trials

The long time that Phase 3 clinical trials take is a major cost. This is especially true for the poor souls whose dire disease will kill them soon. It is also true, as was the case for the rapidly evolving Covid virus discussed below, where the disease is evolving so fast that it is a moving target.

We should calibrate relative risks. What is the risk from delay? What is the risk from less certainty about efficacy?

When the risks from delay are huge, it makes sense to use quicker, allegedly less certain, sources of knowledge, rather than wait for the allegedly certain results of Phase 3 clinical trials.

(p. A13) WASHINGTON — A panel of independent experts advising the Food and Drug Administration is set to recommend on Tuesday [June 28, 2022] whether to update existing Covid-19 vaccines to target a newer version of the coronavirus in a booster shot that Americans could get in the fall.

The federal government is hoping to improve the vaccine to better boost people’s immunity before a likely resurgence of the virus this winter. But to move that quickly, it may need to abandon the lengthy human trials that have been used to test coronavirus vaccines over the past two years in favor of a faster process that relies more on laboratory tests and animal trials.

The most recent trials with human volunteers have taken five months, even using relatively small groups. But the virus is evolving so quickly that new vaccine formulations are out of date before such trials are even finished.

For the full story see:

Sharon LaFraniere. “Chasing Fast-Evolving Virus, F.D.A. May Move to Update Covid Vaccine.” The New York Times (Tuesday, June 28, 2022 [sic]): A13.

(Note: bracketed date and bolded words, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 27, 2022 [sic], and has the title “F.D.A. May Move Toward Updating Vaccines.”)