Musk’s Defense of Free Speech Leads an E.V. Hater to Become a Tesla Cybertruck Lover

I admire Elon Musk’s energy, his ability to focus his mind in spite of distractions, and his ambitious entrepreneurship. The kid in me who got up early to watch Apollo space launches admires his ambition to take us to Mars. But what I admire most is his willingness to put that ambition at risk by spending $44 billion to buy Twitter (now X) in order to defend free speech. Too often entrepreneurs will put their dream above everything else. Musk put free speech above his dream.

And it’s not just the $44 billion. Many of his actual and potential Tesla customers are left-wing environmentalists who criticize his purchase of Twitter, and later his leading D.O.G.E. If that dislike leads to lower sales and profits at Tesla, then Musk will have even fewer funds to take us to Mars.

But the outcome is not certain. Maybe a society with free speech is one that is more likely to allow Musk the freedom to take trial-and-error risks to get us to Mars. And there is a small chance that Tesla will sell more cars because of his principled stand.

Tesla owners who supported Harris for President are buying bumper stickers to slap on their Teslas that read “I Bought This Before We Knew Elon Was Crazy” (Peyser 2024, p. D4).

But consider Berkeley Professor Morgan Ames who bought a Tesla in 2013. Even though she did not like Elon Musk’s views she later bought a second Tesla “because she couldn’t find other electric cars that matched Tesla’s capabilities” (Peyser 2024, p. D4).

And there is Oklahoman Sean Ziese who said to his wife: “If Elon is going to start supporting conservatives and free speech, I’m going to start supporting Elon, even though I hate E.V.s” (Ziese as quoted in Peyser 2024, p. D4). Then Ziese went out and bought himself a Tesla Cybertruck.

Ziese now concludes that his driving a Tesla Cybertruck is “a really neat experience. It never would have happened if Elon never would have bought X, and, you know, got free speech going again” (Ziese as quoted in Peyser 2024, p. D4).

The source article quoted above is:

Eve Peyser. “Tesla Owners Don’t Drive Away Quietly.” The New York Times (Thurs., December 19, 2024): D4.

(Note: the online version of the Eve Peyser article has the date Dec. 11, 2024, and has the title “For Tesla Owners, a Referendum Through Bumper Stickers.”)

Once You Experience Entrepreneurship “Everything Else Is Boring”

(p. B12) C. Richard Kramlich, an early investor in Silicon Valley who co-founded the investment giant New Enterprise Associates, helping to fuel the booming tech industry, died on Saturday [Feb. 1, 2025] at his home in Oakville, Calif., in the Napa Valley. He was 89.

. . .

He co-founded his own firm, New Enterprise Associates, or NEA, building it from an initial $16 million fund in the 1970s to one that now oversees investments of nearly $26 billion.

But he stood out among Silicon Valley’s sea of swashbuckling financiers because of his grace and kindness, said Scott Sandell, the chief investment officer and executive chairman of NEA.

. . .

When he was 13, Dick followed in his father’s entrepreneurial footsteps, starting his own “little lightbulb company,” he said in a 2015 interview with the Computer History Museum. “My father encouraged me to do it if I used my own money, and so I bought half a train car worth of lightbulbs from Sylvania Corporation” and resold them from his bedroom.

He added: “I come from three generations of entrepreneurs, and once you get it in your DNA, everything else is boring.”

. . .

. . . Mr. Kramlich met a pair of entrepreneurs who were both named Steve (Jobs and Wozniak). Their company, Apple Computer, was not as good as two other personal computer companies in the market, Mr. Kramlich said in 2015. But their sense of design and entrepreneurial spark were impressive. “They had pizazz,” he said, “where the other two companies were more engineering oriented.”

. . .

Venture capital investing is designed to absorb many losses in pursuit of one home-run deal, leaving a graveyard of failed start-ups along the way. But Mr. Kramlich was known for sticking with struggling investments long after others had abandoned them.

“He used to say, ‘Never say die,’” Mr. Sandell said.

In the early 1980s, Forethought, the start-up behind PowerPoint software, was about to run out of money, and NEA’s partners refused to pony up more. So Mr. Kramlich convinced his wife that they should pause work on the house they were building on Stinson Beach and use the cash to keep the company alive instead. The gamble paid off: In 1987, Microsoft bought Forethought for $14 million, and PowerPoint went on to become one of the world’s best-known software programs.

For the full obituary see:

Erin Griffith. “Richard Kramlich, 89, A Silicon Valley Investor Revered for Humaneness.” The New York Times (Wednesday, February 8, 2025): B12.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the obituary has the date Feb. 6, 2025, and has the title “C. Richard Kramlich, Early Investor in Silicon Valley, Dies at 89.”)

At Age 84 Scolnick Has the Passion to Persevere at Curing His Son’s Illness

Many of those with the passion to persevere in overcoming the necessary and unnecessary (regulatory) obstacles to medical innovation, do so because they have a sense of urgency due to skin in the game–they or a relative is directly affected by the disease they are passionate to cure. Dr. Edward Scolnick whose story I quote below, is a great example. In the story, we find another example, Ted Stanley, who donated $100 million to Scolnick because Stanley’s son is also suffering mental illness. And perhaps an indirect example? Rienhoff does not directly have skin in the game, but he is playing a key role because of Scolnick’s passion, and Scolnick’s passion is due to his skin in the game.

If we want more cures we will reduce the unnecessary (regulatory) obstacles so that those with less skin in the game (and so less passion to persevere) will also innovate.

[“Skin in the game” has been emphasized by Taleb in his book with that title.]

(p. A1) Dr. Edward Scolnick figures he needs five, maybe 10 more years to solve one of the brain’s greatest mysteries.

Scolnick, 84 years old, has spent most of the past two decades working to understand and find better ways to treat schizophrenia and bipolar disorder, mental illnesses suffered by tens of millions of people, including his son.

“I know I can crack it,” said Scolnick, a noted drug developer who spent his career plumbing the building blocks of DNA for new treatments.

Long before his latest quest, Scolnick spent 22 years at Merck, mostly as head of the drug giant’s laboratory research. He led development of more than two dozen medicines, including the first approved statin to lower cholesterol, an osteoporosis treatment and an anti-HIV therapy.

. . .

(p. A9) In 2021, Scolnick learned that a group of scientists analyzing DNA from thousands of people with schizophrenia had found mutations in 10 genes that substantially increased the risk of developing the illness. They estimated that a mutation on a single gene, called Setd1a, raised the risk 20-fold.

“It got my blood boiling,” Scolnick said. He began pursuing an emerging class of treatments called LSD1 inhibitors, hoping to develop a new drug. Scolnick enlisted Dr. Hugh Young Rienhoff Jr., who recently developed an LSD1 inhibitor to treat blood disorders.

. . .

Rienhoff anticipates testing a new drug for safety as early as next year, first in animals. He said he saw Scolnick’s passion about fielding a breakthrough treatment but didn’t fully understand why until Scolnick shared about his son’s lifelong struggles with mental illness.

Jason Scolnick, 54, said his doctor has been regularly fine-tuning his medications for bipolar disorder over the years to minimize their debilitating side effects. Using the drugs currently prescribed for schizophrenia or bipolar disorder is like undergoing chemotherapy, he said. “There’s no guarantee it will work and it makes you feel terrible, but the cancer will feel worse or kill you.”

There remains a long road ahead for any new medicine. It takes more than a decade, on average, to get a drug from the research lab through government approvals to patients.

. . .

After leaving Merck, Scolnick was hired in 2004 by the Broad Institute of MIT and Harvard to lead research on psychiatric disorders. He fostered ties with Ted Stanley, a memorabilia entrepreneur whose son also suffered with mental illness. In 2007, Stanley gave $100 million to launch the Stanley Center for Psychiatric Research at the Broad, headed by Scolnick for five years.

. . .

Scolnick and Rienhoff had sat together at a Blackstone dinner years earlier. During the meal, Scolnick shared stories with his table companions about Merck’s development of Crixivan, the anti-HIV drug. “I was hearing a piece of history,” Rienhoff said, “not just HIV history.”

Scolnick became emotional describing how the drug developers, facing various obstacles, wrestled with whether or not to keep going. He pushed for the study to continue, given the urgency. At the time, AIDS was killing tens of thousands of people a year in the U.S.

“I said to Ed, ‘You are thinking like a doctor not a scientist,’” Rienhoff said. “That was the beginning of our relationship.”

. . .

Rienhoff has a team of chemists making and testing compounds at labs in the U.S. and abroad.

“I am optimistic something will come of this,” Rienhoff said. “I can do it, but I wouldn’t have done it if not for Ed. I am, really, doing this in a way for Ed.”

. . .

Biotech company Oryzon Genomics in Spain is developing LSD1 inhibitors for cancer and other conditions. Columbia University researchers tried Oryzon’s drug in mice and found it reversed cognitive impairments caused by the Setd1a genetic mutation connected to schizophrenia. Oryzon is running a small trial in Spain of the LSD1 inhibitor in patients with schizophrenia.

Dr. Joseph Gogos, who led the Columbia research, said it was possible such treatments would be approved for people.

Scolnick is more certain—of both a revolutionary new treatment and his living to witness it.

“Before I die, we will see new medicines, new diagnostics, better outcomes for patients burdened by schizophrenia or bipolar illness,” he said. “I will not be happy to die. But I will die happy that my life helped.”

For the full story see:

Amy Dockser Marcus. “Aging Scientist Races Against Time.” The Wall Street Journal (Friday, Nov. 29, 2024): A1 & A9.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date November 26, 2024, and has the title “A Scientist’s Final Quest Is to Find New Schizophrenia Drugs. Will He Live to See Them?”)

Ozempic 25 Years Sooner Would Have Saved and Improved Many Lives

Apparently Ozempic had been discovered in the late 1980s and could have been on the market roughly 25 years ago. Pfizer decided that the likely potential revenues were not sufficient to justify the huge costs. But what if the costs had not been so huge? For instance what if we adopted the proposal suggested by Milton Friedman, and advocated by me, to stop mandating hyper-expensive Phase 3 clinical trials to prove efficacy? (The mandates to prove safety through Phase 1 and Phase 2 trials would be retained.) With lower costs, Pfizer might have moved forward. Or if Pfizer had not, some other firm probably would have entered the breach sooner. If Ozempic had been available sooner, by now it would be much cheaper. Many lives would have been saved that have been lost. Other lives would have been healthier and happier.

(p. A26) They called 2023 the year of Ozempic, but it now seems GLP-1 drugs might define an entire decade — or an even longer era. The game-changing drugs, which mimic the hormone GLP-1, offer large benefits for not just diabetes management and especially weight loss but also, apparently, heart and kidney and liver disease, Alzheimer’s and dementia, Parkinson’s and addiction of all kinds. And perhaps because of widespread use of the drugs, the obesity epidemic in America may finally and mercifully be reversing.

But of all the things we learned this year about GLP-1s, the most astonishing could be that the revolution might have started decades earlier. Researchers identified the key breakthrough for GLP-1 drugs nearly 40 years ago, it turns out, long before most Americans had even heard the phrase “obesity epidemic.”

This summer, a former dean of Harvard Medical School, Jeffrey Flier, published a long personal reflection that doubled as an alternate history of what may well be the most spectacular and impactful medical breakthrough of the century so far. In 1987, Flier co-founded a biotech start-up that pursued GLP-1 as a potential treatment for diabetes, not long after it had first been identified by researchers who’d also found that the hormone enhanced insulin secretion in the presence of glucose.

The startup obtained worldwide rights to develop GLP-1 as a metabolic therapy from a group of those researchers, based at Massachusetts General Hospital. They even generated clinical results that suggested it might have promise as a weight-loss drug as well — only to have Pfizer, which had agreed to fund the research, withdraw its support, without providing the researchers with an especially satisfying explanation. Instead, Pfizer told Flier and his partners that the company didn’t believe there would be a market for another injectable diabetes treatment after insulin. Well, Flier tells me, “they were wrong.”

. . .

. . . Flier’s memoir is not just a lament for what might have been. In the aftermath of the pandemic emergency, as citizens and officials alike have embraced a more libertarian attitude toward public health, there’s been a similar drift in the public conversation about drug discovery and development. Operation Warp Speed is often held up as a new model — calls for an Operation Warp Speed 2.0 have been followed by those for an Operation Warp Speed for everything — . . .

Many of the same reformers will complain about all the red tape at the F.D.A. and C.D.C., tallying up huge mortality costs imposed by slow-moving government, arguing for human challenge trials in which individuals volunteer to take untested drugs and be deliberately infected and even talking about the invisible graveyard of unnecessary regulation and delay.

This is all fine and good — there are surely lots of things those agencies can speed up. And in recent years, reformers of various stripes have lobbied some worthy additional proposals into the biomedical zeitgeist — for a system based not on patents but on huge and direct cash prizes for medical breakthroughs, for instance, or one helped along by advance market commitments or benevolent patent extensions. Just last week the researchers Willy Chertman and Ruxandra Tesloianu published “The Case for Clinical Trial Abundance,” an invigorating manifesto for drug development reform.

. . . in focusing on government bureaucracy as the major biomedical bottleneck, we are seeing just one piece of the picture and overlooking what is perhaps the central challenge of research and development — that it is, at present, so complicated that difficulties or bad decisions at any stage can stifle the whole decades-long process, distorting the actual medical and public-health functions of drug development in countless ways.

For the full commentary see:

David Wallace-Wells. “We Could Have Had Ozempic Years Ago.” The New York Times, SundayOpinion Section (Sunday, Jan. 5, 2025): 11.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Dec. 25, 2024, and has the title “Pfizer Stopped Us From Getting Ozempic Decades Ago.”)

Dr. Flier’s published “memoir” mentioned above is:

Flier, Jeffrey S. “Drug Development Failure: How GLP-1 Development Was Abandoned in 1990.” Perspectives in Biology and Medicine 67, no. 3 (Summer 2024): 325-36.

“The Clinical Trial Manifesto” mentioned above is the introductory essay in the compilation referenced below. Another essay that looks promising in the compilation is “Unblocking Human Challenge Trials for Faster Progress.”

Chertman, Willy, and Ruxandra Tesloianu, eds. The Case for Clinical Trial Abundance: A Series of Short Papers Outlining Reform Possibilities for Our Nation’s Clinical Trials. Washington, DC: The Institute for Progress (IFP), 2024.

Welcome Immigrant Innovators

Empirical research by reputable economists at some top schools concludes that although “immigrants represent 16 percent of all US inventors . . . immigrants are responsible for 36% of aggregate innovation, two-thirds of which is due to their innovation externalities on their native-born collaborators” (Bernstein et al. 2022, p. 1). (I have not yet looked carefully at this research, but have looked at other papers by Rebecca Diamond (no relation), finding them important and well-done.)

We should make it easier for innovators to enter the United States and harder for murderers and thieves to enter. And whatever immigration rules we adopt, we should enforce. We are unfair to those who follow our immigration rules if we allow others to enter the United States without following our rules.

Beyond that, I think our rules can be fairly generous, even letting in many non-innovative immigrants, if at the same time we adopt policies that give a probable path forward to current Americans who are among the least well-off. In a working paper that I hope to return to soon, I argue that we can create this path forward by unbinding entrepreneurs so that they can create more and better jobs for the least well-off.

(I thank my former student and current friend Aaron Brown for alerting me to the article on immigration.)

The empirical research on immigrant innovators mentioned above is:

Bernstein, Shai, Rebecca Diamond, Abhisit Jiranaphawiboon, Timothy McQuade, and Beatriz Pousada. “The Contribution of High-Skilled Immigrants to Innovation in the United States.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #30797, December 2022.

My working paper mentioned above is:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. “Robustly Redundant Labor Markets.” Working Paper. 2021.

Innovative Medical Project Entrepreneur Karikó Long Persevered to Develop mRNA Technology Behind Covid-19 Vaccines

The basic science and technology behind mRNA did not come easy and did not come quick. If the skeptics of Covid-19 vaccines knew this they might be less skeptical because one of the reasons they sometimes give for their skepticism is the speed with which the vaccines were developed. (Other reasons for skepticism I think are more defensible, such as the worry that the authorities downplayed the real side-effects that some vaccine recipients suffered from the vaccines. But on balance I still think the vaccines were a great achievement.) One of the heroes of the long slog is Katalin Karikó. Part of her story is sketched in the passages quoted below. She is a good example of an innovative medical project entrepreneur. When she was named a winner of the Nobel Prize she identified part of what it takes to succeed: “we persevere, we are resilient” (Karikó as quoted in Mosbergen, Loftus, and Zuckerman 2023, p. A2).

(p. A2) The University of Pennsylvania is basking in the glow of two researchers who this week were awarded the Nobel Prize in medicine for their pioneering work on messenger RNA.

Until recently, the school and its faculty largely disdained one of those scientists.

Penn demoted Katalin Karikó, shunting her to a lab on the outskirts of campus while cutting her pay. Karikó’s colleagues denigrated her mRNA research and some wouldn’t work with her, according to her and people at the school. Eventually, Karikó persuaded another Penn researcher, Drew Weissman, to work with her on modifying mRNA for vaccines and drugs, though most others at the school remained skeptical, pushing other approaches.

. . .

. . . on Monday [Oct. 2, 2023], when Karikó and Weissman were awarded the Nobel, on top of prestigious science prizes in recent years, the school expressed a different perspective on their work.

The reversal offers a glimpse of the clubby, hothouse world of academia and science, where winning financial funding is a constant burden, securing publication is a frustrating challenge and those with unconventional or ambitious approaches can struggle to gain support and acceptance.

“It’s a flawed system,” said David Langer, who is chair of neurosurgery at Lenox Hill Hospital, spent 18 years studying and working at Penn and was Karikó’s student and collaborator.

. . .

Penn wasn’t the only institution to doubt Karikó’s belief in mRNA when many other scientists pursued a different gene-based technology. In a reflection of how radical her ideas were at the time, she had difficulty publishing her research and obtaining big grants—prerequisites for those hoping to get ahead in science and gain academic promotions.

Another reason her relationship with the school frayed: Karikó could antagonize colleagues. In presentations, she often was the first to point out mistakes in their work. Karikó didn’t intend to offend, she just felt the need to call out mistakes, she later said.

For the full story see:

Gregory Zuckerman. “Penn Toasts Winning Scientist After Shunning Her for Years.” The Wall Street Journal (Thursday, Oct. 5, 2023 [sic]): A2.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date October 4, 2023 [sic], and has the title “After Shunning Scientist, University of Pennsylvania Celebrates Her Nobel Prize.”)

The source of the Karikó quote in my opening comments is:

Dominique Mosbergen, Peter Loftus and Gregory Zuckerman. “Pair Met With Doubts, Now Win Nobel Prize.” The Wall Street Journal (Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023 [sic]): A1-A2.

(Note: the online version of the story was updated October 2, 2023 [sic], and has the title “Pioneers of mRNA Find Redemption in Nobel Prize.”)

For more detailed accounts of Karikó’s life, struggles, and research see:

Karikó, Katalin. Breaking Through: My Life in Science. New York: Crown, 2023.

Zuckerman, Gregory. A Shot to Save the World: The inside Story of the Life-or-Death Race for a Covid-19 Vaccine. New York: Portfolio/Penguin, 2021.

A.I. May Create More and Better Jobs

In my Openness book, I made good use of The New Division of Labor book by Levy and Murnane that gave plentiful evidence that the innovative dynamism exemplified by the computer revolution on balance resulted in more and better jobs. The Levy/Murnane book is now over 20 years old, so the skeptical might question whether what was true about computers is also still true about artificial intelligence (A.I.). Now one of the book co-authors, Frank Levy, has co-authored a new working paper in which he answers “yes.” The working paper has recently been summarized by Steve Lohr.

Steve Lohr’s article is:

Steve Lohr. “A.I. Is Poised to Put Midsize Cities on the Map.” The New York Times (Mon., December 30, 2024): B1-B2.

(Note: the online version of the Steve Lohr article has the date Dec. 26, 2024, and has the title “How A.I. Could Reshape the Economic Geography of America.”)

The academic working paper co-authored by Frank Levy, that Lohr summarized in The New York Times article mentioned and cited above is:

Abrahams, Scott, and Frank S. Levy. “Could Savannah Be the Next San Jose? The Downstream Effects of Large Language Models.” In SSRN, June 23, 2024.

The book co-authored by Frank Levy and mentioned in my initial comments is:

Levy, Frank, and Richard J. Murnane. The New Division of Labor: How Computers Are Creating the Next Job Market. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press, 2004.

My book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. Openness to Creative Destruction: Sustaining Innovative Dynamism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

Price Controls on Drugs Reduce Drug Innovation

Price controls on drugs may reduce some short-term healthcare costs for consumers, but will also reduce the innovation that brings us more cures, less pain, and fewer side effects. If we want to both reduce costs for consumers and increase innovation, we should end government mandates for the Phase 3 clinical trials–the phase of clinical trials that make up most of the cost of gaining regulatory approval.

(p. A19) The Biden White House has proposed requiring Medicare to “negotiate” drug prices.

. . .

Unfortunately, the debate is being informed by erroneous Congressional Budget Office analysis. CBO says . . . the supply of new drugs will only be reduced by 5% from 2021 to 2039, a loss of only two drugs a year.

The CBO minimizes the harmful effects on innovation, but the entire supply chain that funds medical R&D relies on rate-of-return assessments driven by future earnings. An analysis I released this week finds 10 times the effect on R&D, a loss of up to some 340 drugs over the same period.

The White House also claims that price controls won’t hamstring innovation because they only govern top-selling drugs. But the occasional blockbuster funds the roughly 90% of pipeline drugs that never pass Food and Drug Administration review. CBO even acknowledges that only the top 7% of Medicare drugs drive U.S. profits. Targeting financially successful drugs could make large segments of the development portfolio unprofitable, even if such drugs aren’t affected by price controls.

For the full commentary see:

Tomas J. Philipson. “Biden’s Price Controls Will Make Good Health More Expensive.” The Wall Street Journal (Thursday, Sept. 16, 2021 [sic]): A19.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date September 15, 2021 [sic], and has the same title as the print version.)

The research brief co-authored by Philipson and mentioned above is:

Philipson, Tomas J., and Troy Durie. “The Evidence Base on the Impact of Price Controls on Medical Innovation.” Issue Brief. Becker Friedman Institute, University of Chicago, Sept. 14, 2021.

Supporting Philipson’s argument is a 2024 working paper showing that Medicare-mandated price cuts in medical equipment has resulted in less innovation in medical equipment:

Ji, Yunan, and Parker Rogers. “The Long-Run Impacts of Regulated Price Cuts: Evidence from Medicare.” NBER Working Paper #33083, Oct. 2024.

Regulations Discourage Search for Magic Bullet Cures

The so-called “Inflation Reduction Act” mandates that several of the biggest blockbuster drugs must have prices negotiated between Medicare and Pharma firms. As the commentary quoted below suggests, this creates an incentive for Pharma firms to develop many middling drugs rather than a couple of blockbuster drugs. Paul Ehrlich’s “magic bullet” may be impossible, but we will never know if no-one is trying to discover it.creates an

(p. B10) A true home run in the drug industry is when a company develops a mega-blockbuster that transforms its finances for years.

But with Medicare trying to bring costs down by targeting the industry’s most expensive drugs, a portfolio of medium-size moneymakers that can keep your name off the U.S. government’s naughty list can be a wise strategy.

That is at least one reason why big pharma is investing heavily in biotech companies developing antibody-drug conjugates. Known as ADCs, these treatments work like a guided missile by pairing antibodies with toxic agents to fight cancer. In short, they enable a more targeted form of chemotherapy that goes straight into the cancer cells while minimizing harm to healthy cells.

. . .

One reason most ADCs aren’t likely to become mega-blockbusters like Keytruda, a cancer immunotherapy that has earned 35 approvals across 16 types of cancer, is that they aren’t one-size-fits-all drugs. Instead, they are designed to target a specific protein that is expressed on the surface of a cancer cell. That means that each drug is made with an antibody targeting a subset of cancer. There are more than 100 ADCs being tested in humans by pharma and biotech companies.

For the full commentary see:

David Wainer. “Heard on the Street; Drug Industry’s Secret Weapon: ‘Guided Missiles’.” The Wall Street Journal (Friday, Oct. 27, 2023 [sic]): B10.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date October 26, 2023 [sic], and has the title “Heard on the Street; ‘Guided Missile Drugs’ Could Be Big Pharma’s Secret Weapon.”)

Time Constraints for Tenure, Promotion, and Funding Decisions Lead Academic Biologists to Over-Study Already-Studied Genes

George Stigler argued that when most economists were self-funded business practitioners economics was more applied and empirical, while after most economists were academics funded by endowments or the government economics became less applied and more formal. [In a quick search I failed to identify the article where Stigler says this–sorry.] A similar point was made to science more broadly by Terence Kealey in his thought-provoking The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. The article quoted below argues persuasively that research on human genes is aligned with the career survival goals of academics, rather than with either the faster advance of science or the quicker cure of diseases like cancer. The alignment could be improved if more of research funding came from a variety of private sources.

(p. D3) In a study published Tuesday [Sept. 18, 2018] in PLOS Biology, researchers at Northwestern University reported that of our 20,000 protein-coding genes, about 5,400 have never been the subject of a single dedicated paper.

Most of our other genes have been almost as badly neglected, the subjects of minor investigation at best. A tiny fraction — 2,000 of them — have hogged most of the attention, the focus of 90 percent of the scientific studies published in recent years.

A number of factors are largely responsible for this wild imbalance, and they say a lot about how scientists approach science.

. . .

It was possible, . . ., that scientists were rationally focusing attention only on the genes that matter most. Perhaps they only studied the genes involved in cancer and other diseases.

That was not the case, it turned out. “There are lots of genes that are important for cancer, but only a small subset of them are being studied,” said Dr. Amaral.

. . .

A long history helps, . . . . The genes that are intensively studied now tend to be the ones that were discovered long ago.

Some 16 percent of all human genes were identified by 1991. Those genes were the subjects of about half of all genetic research published in 2015.

One reason is that the longer scientists study a gene, the easier it gets, noted Thomas Stoeger, a post-doctoral researcher at Northwestern and a co-author of the new report.

“People who study these genes have a head start over scientists who have to make tools to study other genes,” he said.

That head start may make all the difference in the scramble to publish research and land a job. Graduate students who investigated the least studied genes were much less likely to become a principal investigators later in their careers, the new study found.

“All the rewards are set up for you to study what has been well-studied,” Dr. Amaral said.

“With the Human Genome Project, we thought everything was going to change,” he added. “And what our analysis shows is pretty much nothing changed.”

If these trends continue as they have for decades, the human genome will remain a terra incognito for a long time. At this rate, it would take a century or longer for scientists to publish at least one paper on every one of our 20,000 genes.

That slow pace of discovery may well stymie advances in medicine, Dr. Amaral said. “We keep looking at the same genes as targets for our drugs. We are ignoring the vast majority of the genome,” he said.

Scientists won’t change their ways without a major shift in how science gets done, he added. “I can’t believe the system can move in that direction by itself,” he said.

Dr. Stoeger argued that the scientific community should recognize that a researcher who studies the least known genes may need extra time to get results.

“People who do something new need some protection,” he said.

For the full commentary see:

Carl Zimmer. “Matter; The Problem With DNA Research.” The New York Times (Tuesday, September 25, 2018 [sic]): D3.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Sept. 18, 2018 [sic], and has the title “Matter; Why Your DNA Is Still Uncharted Territory.” Where there are differences in wording between the versions, the passages quoted above follow the online version.)

The paper in PLOS Biology co-authored by Thomas Stoeger and mentioned above is:

Stoeger, Thomas, Martin Gerlach, Richard I. Morimoto, and Luís A. Nunes Amaral. “Large-Scale Investigation of the Reasons Why Potentially Important Genes Are Ignored.” PLOS Biology 16, no. 9 (2018): e2006643.

Kealey’s book, praised above, is:

Kealey, Terence. The Economic Laws of Scientific Research. New York: St. Martin’s Press, 1996.

Ozempic Profits Poured into Massive Supercomputer Meant to Power AI for Future Drug Development

I think AI is currently being oversold. But I am very ignorant and could be wrong, so I favor a diversity of privately-funded bets on what will work to bring us future breakthrough innovations.

(p. B2) Two of the world’s most important companies are now in a partnership born from the success of their most revolutionary products. The supercomputer was built with technology from Nvidia—and money from the Novo Nordisk Foundation. The charitable organization has become supremely wealthy as the largest shareholder in Novo Nordisk, which means this project was made possible by the breakthrough drugs that have sent the Danish company’s stock price soaring.

To put it another way, it’s the first AI supercomputer funded by Ozempic.

It was named Gefion after the goddess of Norse mythology who turned her sons into oxen so they could plow the land that would become Denmark’s largest island.

. . .

Whatever you call it, Gefion is a beast. It is bigger than a basketball court. It weighs more than 30 tons. It took six months to manufacture and install. It also required an investment of $100 million.

. . .

When it’s fully operational, the AI supercomputer will be available to entrepreneurs, academics and scientists inside companies like Novo Nordisk, which stands to benefit from its help with drug discovery, protein design and digital biology.

For the full commentary see:

Ben Cohen. “It’s a Giant New Supercomputer That Might Transform an Entire Country.” The Wall Street Journal (Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024): B2.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date November 1, 2024, and has the title “Science of Success; The Giant Supercomputer Built to Transform an Entire Country—and Paid For by Ozempic.”)