When U.S. Firms Do the Hard Discovery of Disease Mechanisms, Chinese Firms Cash in With Quick Development of “Fast Followers”

The most binding constraint in drug development is identifying a mechanism by which the disease works, and targeting a weak point through which the mechanism can be slowed or shut down. Since this is the hardest, scarcest part of drug development, firms that achieve it should be rewarded. If they are, then we would find more resources going into searches for mechanisms of disease, and ultimately achieve more effective therapies and even cures. But Chinese firms are increasingly alert to U.S. firms’ advances in mechanism discovery. “After Novo Nordisk published landmark results in February 2021 showing strong results for its weight-loss drug semaglutide, at least 16 Chinese programs targeting the same mechanism filed for clinical-trial approval or dosed patients in China within 18 months, according to the biopharma market-intelligence firm Sleuth, and at least 62 such Chinese programs have launched through June 2026” (Martinez 2026, p. A10).

When Chinese pharma firms learn of the discovery of a new mechanism they are quickly developing, and running trials on, “fast follower” drugs that make use of the same mechanism, but affect the mechanism with a slightly different chemical entity. They can run the trials more quickly, partly because their government and scientific institutions tolerate, and even encourage, them to cut corners in a variety of ways (Ritchie 2020, p. 70). They can then gain fast approval of their fast follower drugs, receiving a larger part of the rewards from the therapy than the firms that achieved the hardest part by discovering and proving the mechanism.

As long as this system continues, it creates a perverse incentive for firms to be fast followers, rather than discoverers of fundamental mechanisms. It also creates a perverse incentive for firms discovering new mechanisms to practice secrecy rather than transparency.

Small mission-oriented startups are the most likely source of the discovery of new mechanisms. But they are also the most resource-constrained, and the least able to conduct large trials. Secrecy will make it harder for them to raise funds, making it harder for them to survive, let alone thrive. The situation for the small firms is all the worse because the FDA requires large Phase 3 double-blind randomized clinical trials, which are especially hard for small firms to fund and execute.

My musings above were informed and stimulated partly by the article:

Xavier Martinez. “U.S. Biotechs Step Up Secrecy To Beat Chinese Drug Copycats.” The Wall Street Journal (Fri., July 10, 2026): A1 & A5.

(Note: the online version of this article has the date July 9, 2026, and has the title “U.S. Biotechs Are Keeping More Secrets to Beat Copycats in China.”)

The book I reference above on Chinese RCTs is:

Ritchie, Stuart. 2020. Science Fictions: How Fraud, Bias, Negligence, and Hype Undermine the Search for Truth. Metropolitan Books.

The Burdens of Prior Approval Still Bedevil Our Over-Regulated Semi-Socialist Healthcare System

In June 2025 many healthcare insurance companies promised to reduce the burden of requirements for prior authorization for treatments. Prior authorization delays treatment, increases uncertainty, and burdens patients and healthcare providers with substantial costs in time and effort to fill out paperwork. As of May 2026, surveys of doctors, administrators, and patients still found prior authorization requirements to be a burden, many not detecting a noticeable change.

This is consistent with what Dr. Ben Goldacre has observed about big pharma firms. When patients or policy makers complain about some practices, such as lack of transparency in reporting clinical trials that fail to support a new drug, the firms promise to take action, and policy makers move on to other issues, thinking that the complaint has been resolved. But often the firms do not deliver on their promises, which amount to “fake fixes” (Goldacre 2013, pp. 47, 54, 299, 333, and 343). Letting our guard down based on the “false reassurance” (Goldacre 2013, pp. 47 and 54) of their promises, no one holds them responsible.

What is true of big pharma firms may also be true of healthcare insurance firms.

The problem is not that the firms are led by evil people, but that perverse incentives lead good people to do bad things. The perverse incentives are an unintended consequence of a baroque system built largely with good intentions.

For the article documenting the continuing burden of prior authorization rules, see:

Reed Abelson. “Insurance Still Stalling Approvals.” The New York Times (Mon., May 18, 2026): B1 & B3.

(Note: the online version of the article has the same date as the print version, and has the title “Medical Care Delays for Approval Persist, Despite Insurers’ Promises.”)

Goldacre’s book, that I praise above, is:

Goldacre, Ben. 2013. Bad Pharma: How Drug Companies Mislead Doctors and Harm Patients. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.

Regulatory Healthcare Price Caps Create Perverse Incentives With Unintended Consequences

Lorens Helmchen and Tony LaSasso’s op-ed in The New York Times argues that when regulators enforce price caps on medical treatments, they create perverse incentives for healthcare providers. For fragile patients with complicated maladies, the cost of treatment may exceed the price cap the regulators allow the healthcare provider to charge. In that case the healthcare provider has a perverse incentive either to deny the patient care, or to give the patient a lower, ineffective, level of care.

I argue elsewhere that there are better ways to reduce the too-high costs of healthcare, e.g., increase competition by repealing certificate of need requirements before opening new healthcare facilities, reduce practice restrictions on nurse practitioners, and eliminate the mandated Phase 3 RCTs required for FDA drug approval.

The Helmchen and LaSasso op-ed is:

Lorens Helmchen and Tony LoSasso. “Capping the Cost of Health Care Is a Mistake.” The New York Times (Tues., July 20, 2026): A23.

(Note: the online version of the op-ed has the date July 20, 2026, and has the title “This Is Not the Answer to Soaring Health Care Costs.”)

National Academy of Sciences Paper Warns Scientific “Fraud Is Growing Exponentially”

In previous blog entries I have cited evidence that top medical scientists have committed fraud in the areas of Alzheimer’s and cancer research. The research discussed in the passages quoted below reports a related but broader problem. In these accounts the fraud consisted mainly of doctored data and images, but did not mainly consist also of wholly fabricated text, which apparently is what new evidence reveals is being increasingly cranked out by paper mills.

The journals accepting these papers are presumably mainly the lower level, and less-cited, journals, and so this fraud arguably may be less damaging to the ongoing progress of science than the more sophisticated fraud carried out by top scientists and published in top journals. This argument assumes that scientists build on work published in the top journals. A problem with this argument is that many times, truly pathbreaking innovations are at first rejected by “top” journals and are only accepted by “lower” level journals. (For instance Hans Krebs’s paper on what is now known as the “Krebs cycle,” that must be memorized by all aspiring doctors, was rejected by the prestigious Nature and published by the much less prestigious Enzymologia (Lane 2022, p. 55).)

The newly revealed fraud reduces even further the credibility of those on the left who order ordinary citizens to “follow the science” rather than follow their own eyes and their own judgement.

(BTW, Dr. Elisabeth Bik who is quoted in a couple of passages quoted below, is also a prominent source in Charles Piller’s Doctored, that documented widespread high-level fraud in the Alzheimer’s research community.)

(p. D1) For years, whistle-blowers have warned that fake results are sneaking into the scientific literature at an increasing pace. A new statistical analysis backs up the concern.

A team of researchers found evidence of shady organizations churning out fake or low-quality studies on an industrial scale. And their output is rising fast, threatening the integrity of many fields.

“If these trends are not stopped, science is going to be destroyed,” said Luís A. Nunes Amaral, a data scientist at Northwestern University and an author of the study, which was published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences on Monday [Aug. 4, 2025].

. . .

“Science relies on trusting what others did, so you do not have to repeat everything,” Dr. Amaral said.

By the 2010s, journal editors and watchdog organizations were warning that this trust was under threat. They flagged a growing number of papers with fabricated data and doctored images. In the years that followed, the factors driving this increase grew more intense.

As more graduate students were trained in labs, the competition for a limited number of research jobs sharpened. High-profile papers became essential for success, not just for landing a job, but also for getting promotions and grants.

Academic publishers have responded to the demand by opening thousands of new scientific journals every year. “All of the incentives are for publishers to publish more and more,” said Dr. Ivan Oransky, the executive director of the Center for Scientific Integrity.

. . .

(p. D3) Elisabeth Bik, a California-based expert on scientific fraud who was not involved in the study, said that it confirmed her early suspicions. “It’s fantastic to see all the work we’ve done now solidified into a much higher-level analysis,” she said.

Dr. Amaral and his colleagues warn that fraud is growing exponentially. In their new study, they calculated that the number of suspicious new papers appearing each year was doubling every 1.5 years. That’s far faster than the increase of scientific papers overall, which is doubling every 15 years.

. . .

In an executive order in May on “gold-standard science,” President Trump drew attention to the problem of scientific fraud. “The falsification of data by leading researchers has led to high-profile retractions of federally funded research,” the order stated.

. . .

Dr. Bik proposed that scientific publishers dedicate more of their profits to monitoring manuscripts for fraud, similar to how credit card companies check for suspicious purchases.

. . .

Dr. Oransky said that the way scientists are rewarded for their work would have to change as well. “To paraphrase James Carville, it’s the incentives, stupid,” he said. “We need to stop making it profitable to game the system.”

For the full story see:

Carl Zimmer. “Fake Papers Found to Be Churned Out At Fast Pace.” The New York Times (Tues., August 5, 2025): D1 & D3.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date and year, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date Aug. 4, 2025, and has the title “Fraudulent Scientific Papers Are Rapidly Increasing, Study Finds.” Where there was a minor difference in the wording between the online and print versions, the passages quoted above follow the online version.)

The academic paper documenting the substantial increase in scientific fraud is:

Richardson, Reese A. K., Spencer S. Hong, Jennifer A. Byrne, Thomas Stoeger, and Luís A. Nunes Amaral. “The Entities Enabling Scientific Fraud at Scale Are Large, Resilient, and Growing Rapidly.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 122, no. 32 (2025): e2420092122.

Nick Lane’s book, cited in my introductory comments, is:

Lane, Nick. Transformer: The Deep Chemistry of Life and Death. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2022.

Brigham and Epstein Have the Guts to Nudge the Overton Window

The Overton Window is the range of “officially acceptable” or “politically correct” policy views. The left has been successful at shifting the window in their direction, for instance, in cancelling those who question any aspect of the global warming ideology for being outside polite discourse. In the face of cancel culture it takes courage to challenge the current Overton Window. Brigham and Epstein (see below) have that courage. Their views should be considered.

(p. B12) Exxon Mobil, Occidental Petroleum and other oil giants are expected to receive billions of dollars of incentives to collect and bury carbon emissions. Texas oil billionaire Ben “Bud” Brigham and pro-fossil-fuels activist Alex Epstein want to turn off the tap.

Brigham, a serial entrepreneur and libertarian from Austin, is urging President Trump and the Republicans who are considering slashing a host of energy incentives to go further and nix tax credits for carbon capture.

. . .

Brigham says he doubts carbon capture can be profitable without public funding and that it is a distraction from firms’ core mission of finding oil and gas. He says that the subsidies distort markets and encourage cronyism.

A geophysicist by training, Brigham made his fortune building and selling two oil companies for a total of about $7 billion. He is an Ayn Rand fan who has produced two movies based on the philosopher’s work. He was also a major backer of what is now the Civitas Institute, a conservative center that launched in 2022 at the University of Texas at Austin.

Brigham first met Epstein, another Rand fan, about a decade ago. The two men bonded over a common belief in the importance of free markets and fossil fuels. Epstein is the author of “The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels,” a book saying that the imperative to fuel societies flourishing with oil and gas outweighs climate-change risks. It has given Republicans ammunition to counter the left’s climate push, oil lobbyists say.

For the full story, see:

Benoît Morenne. “Oil Tycoon, Philosopher Fight Carbon-Capture Goals.” The Wall Street Journal (Tues., July 1, 2025): B12.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 28, 2025, and has the title “The Oil Tycoon and the Philosopher Threatening Big Oil’s Bet on Carbon Capture.”)

Epstein’s book, mentioned above, is:

Epstein, Alex. The Moral Case for Fossil Fuels. New York: Portfolio, 2014.

We Need Market-Tested Innovation to Cure the Sadly Chaotic, Inefficient, Dishonest, and Unfair Organ Transplant System

The government contracts with, and ‘supervises,’ a network of nonprofits in a sadly chaotic, inefficient, dishonest, and unfair system to allocate scarce transplant organs. The government has set up perverse incentives, with unintended consequences, by telling the nonprofits that they will be evaluated on the basis of not wasting organs; those evaluated badly will not have their contracts renewed. So they have an incentive to get the organs out the door quickly, even if they do not go to patients higher on the waiting list. Hospitals know they will be evaluated on the basis of how many transplanted patients survive at least a year. So they have an incentive to reject below average organs, and, when they get above average organs, to ignore the waiting list, in order to transplant them into the most healthy patients.

The result is that the sickest and those who have waited the longest are frequently skipped over, instead of receiving the organ when it is their turn.

Why don’t we try something bold–allow for-profit entrepreneurs to engage in medical institutional innovation? For instance, if we allow it, one medical entrepreneurs might purchase from willing donors the right to allocate their organs if and when they become available. Another medical entrepreneur might set up an institution appealing to donors who do not want to be paid, but do want a guarantee that their organs will go to the poor at no charge.

In retailing Walmart and Amazon have different models, but both made major logistical innovations. We need a Walmart and an Amazon of organ transplantation. We need market-tested innovation (as Deirdre McCloskey might say).

Allowing some donors to be paid will reduce the scarcity of organs, which is the most basic constraint on this issue. Innovative medical entrepreneurs may find other ways to loosen this most basic constraint, such as mechanical organs, regrowing human organs from stem cells, and growing transplantable organs in pigs.

(p. A1) For decades, fairness has been the guiding principle of the American organ transplant system. Its bedrock, a national registry, operates under strict federal rules meant to ensure that donated organs are offered to the patients who need them most, in careful order of priority.

But today, officials regularly ignore the rankings, leapfrogging over hundreds or even thousands of people when they give out kidneys, livers, lungs and hearts. These organs often go to recipients who are not as sick, have not been waiting nearly as long and, in some cases, are not on the list at all, a New York Times investigation found.

Last year, officials skipped patients on the (p. A10) waiting lists for nearly 20 percent of transplants from deceased donors, six times as often as a few years earlier. It is a profound shift in the transplant system, whose promise of equality has become increasingly warped by expediency and favoritism.

Under government pressure to place more organs, the nonprofit organizations that manage donations are routinely prioritizing ease over fairness. They use shortcuts to steer organs to selected hospitals, which jockey to get better access than their competitors.

. . .

The Times analyzed more than 500,000 transplants performed since 2004 and found that procurement organizations regularly ignore waiting lists even when distributing higher-quality organs. Last year, 37 percent of the kidneys allocated outside the normal process were scored as above-average. Other organs are not scored in the same way, but donor age is often used as a proxy for quality, and data shows there is little difference in the age of organs allocated normally compared with those that are not.

And while many people in the transplant community believe ignoring lists is reducing organ wastage, there is no evidence that is true, according to an unreleased report by a group of doctors and researchers asked by the transplant system last year to study the practice.

. . .

In 2020, procurement organizations felt under attack. Congress was criticizing them for letting too many organs go to waste. Regulators moved to give each organization a grade and, starting in 2026, fire the lowest performers.

They scrambled to respond. They assigned more staff to hospitals to identify donors, grew more aggressive with families and recovered more organs from older or sicker donors.

Those steps increased donations and transplants, dozens of employees said. Both hit record highs last year, when there were 41,115 transplants.

At the same time, the organizations increasingly used a shortcut known as an open offer. Open offers are remarkably efficient — officials choose a hospital and allow it to put the organ into any patient.

. . .

Some procurement organizations sidestep the list because they believe it helps them place more organs. But it can also help their bottom lines.

In 2021, the South Carolina procurement organization phased out its allocation team and handed the task to workers who were already managing donors, testing organs and helping with surgeries. As a workaround, three former employees said, executives created a spreadsheet with preferred doctors’ phone numbers.

If the employees were too busy to do allocation, they said, they were told to give open offers to those doctors.

“They’d tell me to get rid of the organs quickly, so I could be done,” said Aron Knorr, one of the former workers, who said the directive made him uncomfortable.

. . .

Dr. Alghidak Salama, who led South Florida’s organization until August [2024], said open offers were financially beneficial: When organizations distribute organs, they are paid a set fee by receiving hospitals, regardless of what costs they incur. Speeding up allocation (p. A11) saves money on staffing.

. . .

When hospitals get open offers, they often give organs to patients who are healthier than others needing transplants, The Times found. For example, 80 percent of all donated hearts in recent years went to patients sick enough to be hospitalized, records show. But when lists were skipped, it was less than 40 percent.

Healthier patients are likelier to help transplant centers perform well on one of their most important benchmarks: the percentage of patients who survive a year after surgery. The government monitors that rate, as do insurers, which can decline to pay low-performing hospitals.

. . .

Federal regulators have known since 2022 that more people were being skipped, according to meeting notes obtained by The Times. But until last week, they had done little to address it.

The U.S. Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services monitors hospitals and procurement organizations. The Health Resources and Services Administration tracks the system overall. But for years, they deferred to UNOS.

Records show that when the system’s oversight committee reviews instances of bypassed patients, it closes more than 99.5 percent of cases without action, usually concluding that the organ was at risk of going to waste. In the last five years, the committee has never gone further than sending “notices of noncompliance,” the mildest action it can take.

“The oversight is almost nonexistent, and that’s been true basically forever,” said Dr. Seth Karp, a Vanderbilt University surgeon who served on the committee, which he noted is largely made up of transplant doctors and procurement officials policing themselves.

For the full story see:

Brian M. Rosenthal, Mark Hansen and Jeremy White. “Organ Transplant System ‘in Chaos’ As Waiting Lists Are Ignored.” The New York Times (Monday, March 10, 2025): A1 & A10-A11.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed year, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date Feb. 26, 2025, and has the same title as the print version.)

Fraudulently Doctored Images and “Suspect Data” in Many Leading Cancer Research Papers

Charles Piller in his Doctored paints a damning picture of doctored images and suspect data rampant in the leading scientific literature on Alzheimer’s disease. Not only were leading scientists guilty of fraud, but the key institutions of scientific research (journals, universities, and government grant-making agencies) failing their oversight duty, and when outsiders stepped in to provide oversight, delayed and minimized their responses. Practicing and turning a blind eye to fraud matters, since Alzheimer’s patients are depending on this research. And researchers who do not commit fraud suffer because they appear to have worse research records than those compiled by the fraudsters. So the honest get worse academic appointments and fewer grants.

After reading Doctored I was depressed, but I at least hoped that this pathology was limited to this one (albeit an important one) area of medical research. But in the article quoted below, evidence is presented that there is substantial similar doctored images and suspect data in the field of cancer research.

A side issue in the quoted article is worth highlighting. In the absence of credible oversight from the institutions tasked with oversight, oversight is being done by competent volunteers, with the aid of A.I. These volunteers do not receive compensation for their work, and in fact probably pay a price for it, since they alienate powerful scientists and scientific institutions. But if science is a search for truth, and truth matters for cures, they are doing a service to us all, and especially to those who suffer from major diseases such as Alsheimer’s and cancer.

On the connection with the Doctored book, it is worth noting that the article quotes Dr. Matthew Schrag, who is the most important source in Doctored. The article also quoted Elisabeth Bik, who does not have an MD like Schrag but has a PhD in microbiology, and who is another important source in Doctored.

(p. A1) The stomach cancer study was shot through with suspicious data. Identical constellations of cells were said to depict separate experiments on wholly different biological lineages. Photos of tumor-stricken mice, used to show that a drug reduced cancer growth, had been featured in two previous papers describing other treatments.

Problems with the study were severe enough that its publisher, after finding that the paper violated ethics guidelines, formally withdrew it within a few months of its publication in 2021. The study was then wiped from the internet, leaving behind a barren web page that said nothing about the reasons for its removal.

As it turned out, the flawed study was part of a pattern. Since 2008, two of its authors — Dr. Sam S. Yoon, chief of a cancer surgery division at Columbia University’s medical center, and a more junior cancer biologist — have collaborated with a rotating cast of researchers on a combined 26 articles that a British scientific sleuth has publicly flagged for containing suspect data. A medical journal retracted one of them this month after inquiries from The New York Times.

Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center, where Dr. Yoon worked when much of the research was done, is now investigating the studies. Columbia’s medical center declined to comment on specific allegations, saying only that it reviews “any concerns about scientific integrity brought to our attention.”

Dr. Yoon, who has said his research could lead to better cancer treatments, did not answer repeated questions. Attempts to speak to the other researcher, Changhwan Yoon, an associate research scientist at Columbia, were also unsuccessful.

The allegations were aired in recent months in online comments on a science forum and in a blog post by Sholto David, an independent molecular biologist. He has ferreted out problems in a raft of high-profile cancer research, including dozens of papers at a Harvard cancer center that were subsequently referred for retractions or corrections.

From his flat in Wales, Dr. David pores over published images of cells, tumors and mice in his spare (p. A17) time and then reports slip-ups, trying to close the gap between people’s regard for academic research and the sometimes shoddier realities of the profession.

. . .

Armed with A.I.-powered detection tools, scientists and bloggers have recently exposed a growing body of such questionable research, like the faulty papers at Harvard’s Dana-Farber Cancer Institute and studies by Stanford’s president that led to his resignation last year.

But those high-profile cases were merely the tip of the iceberg, experts said. A deeper pool of unreliable research has gone unaddressed for years, shielded in part by powerful scientific publishers driven to put out huge volumes of studies while avoiding the reputational damage of retracting them publicly.

The quiet removal of the 2021 stomach cancer study from Dr. Yoon’s lab, a copy of which was reviewed by The Times, illustrates how that system of scientific publishing has helped enable faulty research, experts said. In some cases, critical medical fields have remained seeded with erroneous studies.

“The journals do the bare minimum,” said Elisabeth Bik, a microbiologist and image expert who described Dr. Yoon’s papers as showing a worrisome pattern of copied or doctored data. “There’s no oversight.”

. . .

Dr. Yoon, a stomach cancer specialist and a proponent of robotic surgery, kept climbing the academic ranks, bringing his junior researcher along with him. In September 2021, around the time the study was published, he joined Columbia, which celebrated his prolific research output in a news release. His work was financed in part by half a million dollars in federal research money that year, adding to a career haul of nearly $5 million in federal funds.

. . .

The researchers’ suspicious publications stretch back 16 years. Over time, relatively minor image copies in papers by Dr. Yoon gave way to more serious discrepancies in studies he collaborated on with Changhwan Yoon, Dr. David said. The pair, who are not related, began publishing articles together around 2013.

But neither their employers nor their publishers seemed to start investigating their work until this past fall, when Dr. David published his initial findings on For Better Science, a blog, and notified Memorial Sloan Kettering, Columbia and the journals. Memorial Sloan Kettering said it began its investigation then.

. . .

A proliferation of medical journals, they said, has helped fuel demand for ever more research articles. But those same journals, many of them operated by multibillion-dollar publishing companies, often respond slowly or do nothing at all once one of those articles is shown to contain copied data. Journals retract papers at a fraction of the rate at which they publish ones with problems.

. . .

“There are examples in this set that raise pretty serious red flags for the possibility of misconduct,” said Dr. Matthew Schrag, a Vanderbilt University neurologist who commented as part of his outside work on research integrity.

. . .

Experts said the handling of the article was symptomatic of a tendency on the part of scientific publishers to obscure reports of lapses.

“This is typical, sweeping-things-under-the-rug kind of nonsense,” said Dr. Ivan Oransky, co-founder of Retraction Watch, which keeps a database of 47,000-plus retracted papers. “This is not good for the scientific record, to put it mildly.”

For the full story, see:

Benjamin Mueller. “Cancer Doctor Is in Spotlight Over Bad Data.” The New York Times. (Fri., February 16, 2024): A1 & A17.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version has the date Feb. 15, 2024 [sic], and has the title “A Columbia Surgeon’s Study Was Pulled. He Kept Publishing Flawed Data.”)

Piller’s book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Piller, Charles. Doctored: Fraud, Arrogance, and Tragedy in the Quest to Cure Alzheimer’s. New York: Atria/One Signal Publishers, 2025.

Rampant Fraud in ‘Skin’ Bandages Paid by Medicare

A “quirk” in the Medicare law allows ‘skin’ bandage firms to charge, and have Medicare pay them, exorbitant prices. Are such quirks accidents or intentional? Medicare rules are so voluminous and obscure that few have an incentive to look carefully at the details. But the firms selling ‘skin’ bandages had an incentive. Entrepreneurs within these firms saw an opportunity and seized it. But they are what William Baumol called “destructive entrepreneurs.” Their energy and talent works against the general good.

Since patients are not paying, they have little incentive to reveal the fraud. So the taxpayers are robbed. In a system where the patients are the payers they would have an incentive to reveal fraud, and to seek alternatives to over-priced medical therapies.

But what of the poor, you ask? Susan Feigenbaum proposed an insurance system where patients would receive lump sum payments for different ailments. Then poor patients could be payers, and have the incentives of payer.

(p. 1) Seniors across the country are wearing very expensive bandages.

Made of dried bits of placenta, the paper-thin patches cover stubborn wounds and can cost thousands of dollars per square inch.

Some research has found that such “skin substitutes” help certain wounds heal. But in the past few years, dozens of unstudied and costly products have flooded the market.

Bandage companies set ever-rising prices for new brands of the products, taking advantage of a loophole in Medicare rules, The New York Times found. Some doctors then buy the coverings at large discounts but charge Medicare the full sticker price, pocketing the difference.

Partly because of these financial incentives, many patients receive the bandages who do not need them. The result, experts said, is one of the largest examples of Medicare waste in history.

Private insurers rarely pay for skin substitutes, arguing that they are unproven and unnecessary. But Medicare, the government insurance program for seniors, routinely covers them. Spending on skin substitutes exceeded $10 billion in 2024, more than double the figure in 2023, according to an analysis of Medicare data done for The Times by Early Read, a firm that evaluates costs for large health companies.

Medicare now spends more on the bandages than on ambulance rides, anesthesia or CT scans, the analysis found.

. . .

(p. 19) . . . experts in health care costs said the spike had been driven . . . by sellers and doctors taking advantage of Medicare’s pricing rules. The government will reimburse any price that a company sets for brand-new skin substitutes, even if it is far above the market average. The higher the price, the larger the doctors’ cut.

And the bigger the bandage, the more they can charge. For one patient in Nevada, Medicare spent $14 million on skin substitutes over the course of a year, according to billing records reviewed by The Times. The wound of a patient in Washington State persisted after Medicare paid $6 million for the coverings. A man in Texas got $1.3 million of bandages despite having no wound at all. Health executives trying to ferret out suspicious spending identified these patients and shared their stories with The Times.

As the Trump administration — and particularly the new Department of Government Efficiency run by Elon Musk — aims to shrink the federal purse, profligate Medicare spending is a ripe target, experts said.

Companies have billed Medicare for hundreds of thousands of urinary catheters that doctors never ordered. Other schemes have peddled urine tests and knee braces. In 2023, a federal watchdog agency flagged skin substitute spending as wasteful for both taxpayers and Medicare enrollees, who ultimately pay the costs with higher premiums.

“It’s the patients, it’s the taxpayers — unfortunately everyone is footing a part of the bill for this outsized spend,” said Dana Rye, an executive with Duly Health and Care, a Chicago-based medical group where payments for skin substitutes have risen 1,400 percent since 2022.

. . .

Five years ago, the most expensive skin substitute cost $1,042 per square inch, while some were as cheap as $45. Today, the three most expensive products on the market each cost more than $21,000. (Samaritan Biologics, a company in Memphis that sells the three products, did not answer questions about why they cost so much.)

Companies can set such high prices because of a quirk in Medicare pricing rules, industry experts said. For the first six months of a new bandage product’s life, Medicare will set the reimbursement rate at whatever price a company chooses. After that, the agency adjusts the reimbursement to reflect the actual price paid by doctors after any discounts.

To circumvent the reimbursement drop, some companies simply roll out new products.

In April 2023, Medicare began reimbursing $6,497 for every square inch of a bandage called Zenith, sold by Legacy Medical Consultants, a company in Fort Worth, Texas. Six months later, Zenith’s reimbursement fell to $2,746.

That month, October 2023, Medicare began reimbursing $6,490 for a new Legacy product, a “dual layer” bandage called Impax.

Marketing materials for the two products use identical photographs and similar language. The company describes both products as providing “optimal wound covering and protection during the treatment of wounds.”

Since 2022, spending on Zenith and Impax has exceeded $2.6 billion, according to Early Read’s analysis.

. . .

A cottage industry of doctors and nurses make house calls to treat wounds. Some skin substitute companies pitch themselves to wound care doctors by offering a cut of the rising bandage prices.

Dr. Caroline Fife, a wound care doctor from Texas who often writes about industry excesses, shared on her blog last year an email she received from an undisclosed skin substitute company. The company boasted that other doctors had developed “a healthy revenue stream” from its bandages and that a patch smaller than a credit card “would generate a little over $20,000 for your practice.”

Some companies offer doctors a “bulk discount” of up to 45 percent, according to doctor interviews and contracts reviewed by The Times. But doctors then collect a Medicare reimbursement for the full price of the product.

For the full story, see:

Sarah Kliff and Katie Thomas. “‘Skin’ Bandages Cost Medicare, And Doctors Get a Cut of Billions.” The New York Times, First Section. (Sun., April 13, 2025): 1 & 19.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version was updated April 14, 2025, and has the title “Medicare Bleeds Billions on Pricey Bandages, and Doctors Get a Cut.”)

The article by William Baumol praised in my initial comments is:

Baumol, William J. “Entrepreneurship: Productive, Unproductive, and Destructive.” The Journal of Political Economy 98, no. 5, Part 1 (Oct. 1990): 893-921.

The article by Susan Feigenbaum praised in my initial comments is:

Feigenbaum, Susan. “Body Shop’ Economics: What’s Good for Our Cars May Be Good for Our Health.” Regulation 15, no. 4 (Fall 1992): 25-31.

Private Sector Succeeds Where Public Sector Fails at Operating a Successful Passenger Train

The New York Times recently ran a surprising (for them) article highlighting the success of the privately owned Brightline passenger railroad on the east coast of Florida. The Times contrasts the private success of Brightline with the public failures of Amtrak and California’s mostly undone proposed bullet train. Amtrak ran an operating deficit of over $700 million in 2024. The long-planned, barely-begun, pared-back California bullet train is now estimated to require over $100 billion to reach completion.

Maybe Brightline succeeds because the private sector allows entrepreneurs to use what Deirdre McCloskey calls trade-tested innovation to pursue their projects.

The private sector allows innovative dynamism.

The New York Times article is:

Michael Kimmelman. “What’s So Hard About Building High-Speed Trains?” The New York Times (Sat., April 19, 2025): B4-B5.

(Note: the online version of the article was updated April 18, 2025, and has the title “What’s So Hard About Building Trains?”)

McCloskey discusses trade-tested innovation in:

McCloskey, Deirdre N. Bourgeois Equality: How Ideas, Not Capital, Transformed the World. Chicago: University of Chicago Press: Chicago, 2016.

I discuss innovative dynamism in:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. Openness to Creative Destruction: Sustaining Innovative Dynamism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

Feds Set Up Medicare “Advantage” So Insurance Firms Earn Higher Profit When They Deny Prior Authorization of Medically Beneficial Services

Medicare “Advantage” insurers earn higher profits when they refuse to pay for medical services, whether the services benefit patient health or not.
This is what is known as a perverse incentive. The firms often respond to such an incentive, especially when the services are expensive.

The federal designers of Medicare “Advantage” plans thought the plans would both save taxpayers money and provide more services to patients. Instead they have done the opposite. To taxpayers and patients, such a plan is a disadvantage. Only to insurance firms is such a plan an advantage, handed to them members of congress, some of whom receive benefits from lobbyists and some of whom are well-intentioned, but ignorant of the plans’ perverse incentives and unanticipated consequences.

[In the first paragraph below it is perhaps misleading to say that the federal funds per patient are “fixed.” It is true that they do not vary based on actual medical services the patient receives (as is the case with traditional Medicare). So in that sense they are “fixed.” But they do vary based on the diagnostic codes assigned to each patient. So in that sense they are not “fixed.” Congress set the plans up so that insurance firms can make more profits either by assigning more diagnostic codes to patients, or by providing patients with fewer services.]

(p. D3) Medicare Advantage plans are capitated, meaning they receive a fixed amount of public dollars per patient each month and can keep more of those dollars if prior authorization reduces expensive services. “Plans are making financial decisions rather than medical decisions,” Mr. Lipschutz said. (Medicare Advantage has never saved money for the Medicare program.)

Such criticisms have circulated for years, bolstered by two reports from the Office of Inspector General in the Department of Health and Human Services. In 2018, a report found “widespread and persistent” problems related to denials of prior authorization and payments to providers. It noted that Advantage plans overturned 75 percent of those denials when patients or providers appealed.

In 2022, a second inspector general’s report revealed that 13 percent of denied prior authorization requests met Medicare coverage rules and probably would have been approved by traditional Medicare.

By that point, a KFF analysis found, the proportion of prior authorization denials overturned on appeal had reached 82 percent, raising the possibility that many “should not have been denied in the first place,” Dr. Biniek said.

. . .

Responding to the inspector general reports, and to a rising tide of complaints, the federal Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services has established two new rules to protect consumers and streamline prior authorization.

. . .

“Medicare Advantage makes us jump through so many hoops,” said Dr. Sandeep Singh, chief medical officer of the Good Shepherd Rehabilitation Network in Allentown, Pa. “It’s created such stress in the health care system.” A few years ago, his organization had one “insurance verification specialist” whose job was to handle prior authorization requests and appeals; now, it employs three.

. . .

Will Medicare’s new rules make a difference? So far at Good Shepherd, “we continue to see the same level of resistance” from Advantage plans, Dr. Singh said.

Mr. Lipschutz, of the Center for Medicare Advocacy, said, “It’s clear the intention is there, but the jury’s still out on whether this is working.”

“It comes down to enforcement,” he said.

For the full commentary, see:

Paula Span. “Some Insurers Erect Roadblocks.” The New York Times (Tuesday, May 28, 2024): D3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date May 25, 2024, and has the title “When ‘Prior Authorization’ Becomes a Medical Roadblock.”)

The 2018 report mentioned above is:

Levinson, Daniel R. “Medicare Advantage Appeal Outcomes and Audit Findings Raise Concerns About Service and Payment Denials.” Office of Inspector General, 2018.

The 2022 report mentioned above is:

Grimm, Christi A. “Some Medicare Advantage Organization Denials of Prior Authorization Requests Raise Concerns About Beneficiary Access to Medically Necessary Care.” Office of Inspector General, 2022.

Disintermediate Healthcare

Many of the problems of our broken healthcare system could be fixed if insurers and healthcare providers were competing directly and transparently for the dollars of patients. But there are middlemen between patients and providers–mostly employers and governments. The goals and knowledge of the payers overlap, but are not the same. The payers may prioritize lowering their costs and may not care as much, or even know, the full costs to the patients.

The patients have a much better knowledge of the value of the healthcare or insurance that they are receiving, but they are very constrained in their ability to switch to insurers or healthcare providers who provide better services, or do so more efficiently. For many workers healthcare and health insurance are bundled with their work. They can leave their work, but other components of the bundle matter.

And nothing is transparent.

The fancy word for cutting out the middleman is “disintermediation.”

(p. 1) Weeks after undergoing heart surgery, Gail Lawson found herself back in an operating room. Her incision wasn’t healing, and an infection was spreading.

At a hospital in Ridgewood, N.J., Dr. Sidney Rabinowitz performed a complex, hourslong procedure to repair tissue and close the wound.

. . .

But the doctor was not in her insurance plan’s network of providers, leaving his bill open to negotiation by her insurer. Once back on her feet, Ms. Lawson received a letter from the insurer, UnitedHealthcare, advising that Dr. Rabinowitz would be paid $5,449.27 — a small fraction of what he had billed the insurance company. That left Ms. Lawson with a bill of more than $100,000.

“I’m thinking to myself, ‘But this is why I had insurance,’” said Ms. Lawson, who is fighting UnitedHealthcare over the balance. “They take out, what, $300 or $400 a month? Well, why aren’t you people paying these bills?”

The answer is a little-known data analytics firm called MultiPlan. It works with UnitedHealthcare, Cigna, Aetna and other big insurers to decide how much so-called out-of-network medical providers should be paid. It promises to help contain medical costs using fair and independent analysis.

But a New York Times investigation, based on interviews and confidential documents, shows that MultiPlan and the insurance companies have a large and mostly hidden financial incentive to cut those reimbursements as much as possible, even if it means saddling patients with large bills. The formula for MultiPlan and the insurance companies is simple: The smaller the reimbursement, the larger their fee.

Here’s how it works: The most common way Americans get health coverage is through employers that “self-fund,” meaning they pay for their workers’ medical care with their own money. The employers contract with insurance companies to administer the plans and process claims. Most medical visits are with providers in a plan’s network, with rates set in advance.

But when employees see a provider outside the network, as Ms. Lawson did, many insurance companies consult with MultiPlan, which typically recommends that the employer pay less than the provider billed. The difference between the bill and the sum actually paid amounts to a savings for the employer. But, The Times found, it means big money for MultiPlan and the insurer, since both companies often charge the employer a percentage of the savings as a processing fee.

In recent years, the nation’s largest insurer by revenue, UnitedHealthcare, has reaped an annual windfall of about $1 billion in fees from out-of-network savings programs, including its work with MultiPlan, according to testimony by two of its executives.

. . .

(p. 18) In some instances, the fees paid to an insurance company and MultiPlan for processing a claim far exceeded the amount paid to providers who treated the patient. Court records show, for example, that Cigna took in nearly $4.47 million from employers for processing claims from eight addiction treatment centers in California, while the centers received $2.56 million. MultiPlan pocketed $1.22 million.

. . .

In examining MultiPlan’s dominant role in this secretive world, The Times reviewed more than 50,000 pages of confidential corporate records, legal filings, claims information and other documents. The Times also interviewed more than 100 patients, doctors, billing specialists, advisers to employer health plans and former MultiPlan employees.

. . .

Mary Reinbold Jerome had been diagnosed with ovarian cancer at age 62 and received treatment at Memorial Sloan Kettering. Because the hospital was outside her plan’s network, she was billed tens of thousands of dollars.

. . .

She stood beside Andrew M. Cuomo, then the attorney general, as he announced his office’s blistering conclusions: A payment system riddled with conflicts of interest had been shortchanging patients, and at its core was a data company called Ingenix. Insurers used the company, a UnitedHealth subsidiary, to unfairly lower their payments and shift costs to patients, the probe found.

. . .

But amid the triumph, a key detail in the attorney general’s agreements with insurers largely escaped notice: The companies were required to use the nonprofit database for only five years.

When that term expired in 2014, MultiPlan was well positioned to capitalize.

For decades, the company, founded in 1980, offered a traditional approach to managing out-of-network claims by negotiating rates with doctors. Insurers got discounts and assurances that patients would not have to make up the difference.

But after MultiPlan’s founder sold it to private equity investors in 2006, the company pursued a more aggressive approach. It embraced pricing tools that used algorithms to recommend lower payments, and no longer protected patients from having to pay the difference, documents show.

Meanwhile, private equity ramped up investments in physician groups and hospitals and, in some instances, began billing for extraordinary sums. Once insurers were no longer obligated to use the nonprofit database, FAIR Health, they began looking for ways to combat that billing and other charges they considered egregious.

. . .

Internal documents show that UnitedHealthcare began a campaign to persuade employers to switch from FAIR Health. In a 2019 email, a UnitedHealthcare senior vice president emphasized creating a “sense of urgency” and helping companies still using FAIR Health “understand they don’t want to be on that program anymore.”

UnitedHealthcare had a big incentive to encourage this change. When it processed claims from employer plans using FAIR Health, the insurer collected no additional fee, according to legal testimony. But when it used MultiPlan, documents show, it typically charged employers 30 to 35 percent of the difference between the billed amount and the portion paid.

MultiPlan, too, charged a percentage of the savings, meaning it could make more by recommending lower payments. (FAIR Health charged a flat fee.)

. . .

(p. 19) Some providers said they had begun requiring payment upfront or stopped accepting patients with certain insurance plans because appealing for higher payments can be time-consuming, infuriating and futile. Others have tried to sue insurers or MultiPlan. Dr. Rabinowitz, who repaired Ms. Lawson’s incision, hopes to collect the remaining balance from UnitedHealthcare in an ongoing case.

Surprise bills for some types of care are no longer an issue, insurers said, thanks to the law that went into effect in 2022. Brittany Perritt didn’t realize the anesthesiologists at her 3-year-old’s brain tumor treatments in 2020 were out-of-network until the claims went to MultiPlan. If that care occurred today, she likely would be spared the calls from debt collectors, because she didn’t go out of network by choice.

But MultiPlan assured investors shortly before the law’s passage that it was likely to have “limited impact” on the company. In fact, MultiPlan said, 90 percent of its revenue involved out-of-network claims that wouldn’t be affected.

. . .

Even when patients figured out where to direct complaints — the Employee Benefits Security Administration — they described the process as draining and mostly fruitless.

. . .

Insurers can set negotiation parameters for MultiPlan, including not negotiating at all, records and interviews show. Multiple providers and billing specialists said that in recent years they had increasingly been told their claims weren’t eligible for negotiation.

“It wasn’t this bad before,” said Tiffany Letosky, who oversees a small practice specializing in surgeries for endometriosis and gynecologic cancers.

Former MultiPlan negotiators said their bonuses had been linked to their success at reducing payments, incentivizing a hard-line approach.

Ms. Young, the former negotiator critical of the process, said she had occasionally called a provider from a cellphone — knowing that her work line was recorded — and advised against accepting her own offer.

Another former negotiator said the pressure to get bigger discounts had made her physically ill. “It was just a game,” she said. “It’s sad.”

For the full story see:

Chris Hamby. “Patients Hit With Big Bills While Insurers Reap Fees.” The New York Times, First Section (Sunday, April 7, 2024): 1 & 18-19.

(Note: the online version of the story was updated April 9, 2024, and has the title “Insurers Reap Hidden Fees by Slashing Payments. You May Get the Bill.”)