I am a longevity optimist. If regulatory constraints are loosened, I believe entrepreneurs will bring us quicker progress.
(p. A12) S. Jay Olshansky, who studies the upper bounds of human longevity at the University of Illinois Chicago, believes people shouldn’t expect to live to 100.
. . .
Kaare Christensen, co-author of a paper predicting most newborns born in the 2000s would live to 100 if medical progress continued, said it is too soon to know who is right. Future advances could make up for stalled life expectancy gains.
“The setback could be temporary,” he said.
Christensen, who runs studies on very old people at the Danish Aging Research Center in Denmark, said people in their 90s have better cognitive function and healthier teeth over their lifetimes than counterparts of the same age born just 10 years earlier.
“I would say prepare for your 90s instead,” Christensen said.
Old-age debate
Olshansky’s foray into the limits of lifespan began in 1990 when he published a paper in Science stating that life expectancy wouldn’t rise dramatically even if diseases including cancer and heart disease are eliminated. He has been fighting about it ever since.
James Vaupel, a demographer, pushed back. In a 2021 paper, Vaupel pointed to statistics showing that since around 1840 life expectancy at birth has increased almost 2.5 years per decade in some countries.
Vaupel and Olshansky published dueling papers over the decades until Vaupel’s death at age 76 in 2022.
Steven Austad, a professor of biology at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, was asked at a 2001 scientific meeting when he thought the first person to live to 150 would be born. “I think that person is already alive,” Austad replied. Austad said he based his answer on optimism that scientists will figure out how to change the biology of aging.
When Olshansky heard about the exchange, he bet Austad that wasn’t true. In 150 years, he argued, there still wouldn’t be a person alive at 150. The men wagered $150 each, which they put in a fund to pay out in 150 years, with the winner’s heirs to reap the profit. A decade ago, they each added another $150 to the account.
Austad said he agreed with Olshansky that most newborns born now won’t live to 100. But he thinks his optimism that someone will live to 150 is justified. He pointed to a study showing the compound rapamycin extended the lifespan of mice, even if they start getting it later in life. Some longevity enthusiasts are taking rapamycin themselves. Studies on other potentially antiaging compounds are under way.
“If any turn out to work,” Austad said, “they will win my bet for me.”
For the full story see:
(Note: ellipsis added.)
(Note: the online version of the story has the date July 11, 2024, and has the title “Think You Will Live to 100? These Scientists Think You’re Wrong.”)
The paper co-authored by Christensen and mentioned above, is:
The 2021 paper co-authored by Vaupel and mentioned above, is: