For Nov. 5 Vote Diamond Ponders Deregulation of Entrepreneurs, Survival of Israel, Defense of Freedom of Speech

Art Diamond on 9/26/24 with red Nebraska sign.

I requested a red Nebraska sign that was delivered yesterday. Our Omaha district is sometimes called “the blue dot” because it sometimes votes against the rest of red Nebraska. To decide what to do on Nov. 5, I mostly ask three questions. Who will most reduce regulations so that entrepreneurs can create the goods and services that allow us to flourish? Who will stand firm for the survival of the freedom sanctuary that is Israel? And especially, who will stand firm for the nonpoliticized rule of law and for freedom of speech?

Is Longevity Constrained by Nature or by Government Regulations?

I am a longevity optimist. If regulatory constraints are loosened, I believe entrepreneurs will bring us quicker progress.

(p. A12) S. Jay Olshansky, who studies the upper bounds of human longevity at the University of Illinois Chicago, believes people shouldn’t expect to live to 100.

. . .

Kaare Christensen, co-author of a paper predicting most newborns born in the 2000s would live to 100 if medical progress continued, said it is too soon to know who is right. Future advances could make up for stalled life expectancy gains.

“The setback could be temporary,” he said.

Christensen, who runs studies on very old people at the Danish Aging Research Center in Denmark, said people in their 90s have better cognitive function and healthier teeth over their lifetimes than counterparts of the same age born just 10 years earlier.

“I would say prepare for your 90s instead,” Christensen said.

Old-age debate

Olshansky’s foray into the limits of lifespan began in 1990 when he published a paper in Science stating that life expectancy wouldn’t rise dramatically even if diseases including cancer and heart disease are eliminated. He has been fighting about it ever since.

James Vaupel, a demographer, pushed back. In a 2021 paper, Vaupel pointed to statistics showing that since around 1840 life expectancy at birth has increased almost 2.5 years per decade in some countries.

Vaupel and Olshansky published dueling papers over the decades until Vaupel’s death at age 76 in 2022.

Steven Austad, a professor of biology at the University of Alabama at Birmingham, was asked at a 2001 scientific meeting when he thought the first person to live to 150 would be born. “I think that person is already alive,” Austad replied. Austad said he based his answer on optimism that scientists will figure out how to change the biology of aging.

When Olshansky heard about the exchange, he bet Austad that wasn’t true. In 150 years, he argued, there still wouldn’t be a person alive at 150. The men wagered $150 each, which they put in a fund to pay out in 150 years, with the winner’s heirs to reap the profit. A decade ago, they each added another $150 to the account.

Austad said he agreed with Olshansky that most newborns born now won’t live to 100. But he thinks his optimism that someone will live to 150 is justified. He pointed to a study showing the compound rapamycin extended the lifespan of mice, even if they start getting it later in life. Some longevity enthusiasts are taking rapamycin themselves. Studies on other potentially antiaging compounds are under way.

“If any turn out to work,” Austad said, “they will win my bet for me.”

For the full story see:

Amy Dockser Marcus. “Live Until 100? Our Chances Are Slim.” The Wall Street Journal (Wednesday, July 17, 2024): A12.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date July 11, 2024, and has the title “Think You Will Live to 100? These Scientists Think You’re Wrong.”)

The paper co-authored by Christensen and mentioned above, is:

Christensen, Kaare, Gabriele Doblhammer, Roland Rau, and James W. Vaupel. “Ageing Populations: The Challenges Ahead.” Lancet 374, no. 9696 (Oct. 3, 2009): 1196-208.

The 2021 paper co-authored by Vaupel and mentioned above, is:

Vaupel, James W., Francisco Villavicencio, and Marie-Pier Bergeron-Boucher. “Demographic Perspectives on the Rise of Longevity.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118, no. 9 (2021): e2019536118.

United Nations “Innovation Matters” Podcast Posts Second Part of Episode on Diamond’s Openness to Creative Destruction

Innovation history and policies continue to be the themes of this second part of my conversation with Lars Anders Joensson on the United Nations’s Innovation Matters podcast. The discussion of “Innovation Matters: Innovative Dynamism” is mostly related to the process of innovative dynamism as discussed in my book Openness to Creative Destruction. Anders was especially energized in this second part of the conversation. (Recorded Weds., Aug. 3, 2022; posted Thurs., Sept. 19, 2024.) [Links to first part of podcast conversation.]

Part 2 is available on: SoundCloud, Spotify, Apple Music, Amazon Music.

Volcanoes Release Enough Carbon Dioxide to Raise the Temperature by 60 Degrees

So an Oxford geologist finds that “volcanoes release vast amounts of carbon dioxide” and that release is mostly a good thing since without it the Earth “would chill by nearly 60 degrees.” Environmentalists are stressing that the temperature of the Earth may go up by a few degrees. Imagine how the environmentalists would stress if the volcanoes stopped releasing carbon dioxide and the temperature started going down by 60 degrees. That would indeed be something to stress about.

(p. 8) Tamsin Mather, a geologist at the University of Oxford, has no such difficulty. She has spent her career visiting volcanoes to understand how they work, and she has come to see Earth not as a peaceful world encased in a stable crust, but a globe of barely contained geological storms.

“Adventures in Volcanoland” is organized around trips Mather has taken throughout her career, starting with Vesuvius, which she first visited as a child on a family vacation. Next comes the Nicaraguan volcano Masaya, which she studied as a graduate student, and then volcanoes on other continents.

. . .

In her own research, Mather has specialized in measuring the gases that volcanoes emit. Even when they’re not erupting, volcanoes release vast amounts of carbon dioxide. Without that heat-trapping gas, an icehouse effect would replace the greenhouse effect, and the planet’s temperature would chill by nearly 60 degrees.

For the most part, Earth is able to keep its climate stable. While volcanoes warm the planet, chemical reactions draw off carbon dioxide from the air, ultimately delivering it deep underground.

This planetary thermostat is not enough to keep volcanoes from periodically unleashing hell, though. Vast eruptions may be responsible for most of the mass extinctions in life’s history.

For the full review see:

Carl Zimmer. “Lava Lamp.” The New York Times Book Review (Sunday, August 11, 2024): 8.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the review has the date June 19, 2024, and has the title “The Eternal Pull of the Fascinating, Deadly Volcano.”)

The book under review is:

Mather, Tamsin. Adventures in Mather, Tamsin. Adventures in Volcanoland: What Volcanoes Tell Us About the World and Ourselves. New York: Hanover Square Press, 2024.

Diet Low in Fat and Sugar May Have Helped Morera Become Oldest Person in World

But at least it appears that she was able to keep drinking coffee. She also apparently embraced new technology and stayed intellectually sharp (maybe the coffee helped ;).

(p. A1) Maria Branyas Morera, an American-born Spanish woman believed to be the oldest person in the world, died on Monday [Aug. 19, 2024] in Olot, Spain. She was 117.

Her family wrote in a post on her X account that she had died in her sleep. She had been living in a nursing home.

“A few days ago she told us: ‘One day I will leave here. I will not try coffee again, nor eat yogurt, nor pet my dog,’” her family wrote in Catalan in the post. “‘I will also leave my memories, my reflections, and I will cease to exist in this body. One day I don’t know, but it’s very close, this long journey will be over.’”

. . .

Having been born before the emergence of the telephone, Ms. Branyas came to embrace the digital revolution, fashioning herself on social media as “Super Àvia Catalana,” or “Super Catalan Grandma.” She posted bite-size pieces of life advice, observations and jokes to thousands of followers.

In her biography on X, she wrote, “I’m old, very old, but not an idiot.”

. . .

Like many supercentenarians, Ms. Branyas became the subject of scientific fascination. Dr. Esteller, the researcher who studied her genetics and lifestyle, found that her genes were protective against DNA damage, and that she had low levels of fat and sugar in her blood — all of which he said was helpful for living a long life. His research also found that her cells aged much slower than she did, meaning that she had a lower “biological age” than her actual age.

The Catalan diet, which is similar to the Mediterranean diet and includes a lot of olive oil, has also been linked to longer survival, he said. He added that Ms. Branyas liked to eat yogurt.

“What do you expect from life?” a doctor once asked Ms. Branyas while retrieving blood samples for study, according to El País.

Ms. Branyas, unmoved, answered simply: “Death.”

For the full obituary see:

Ali Watkins. “Maria Branyas Morera, 117; Was Oldest Person in the World.” The New York Times (Friday, August 23, 2024): B11.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the obituary was updated Aug. 22, 2024, and has the title “Maria Branyas Morera, World’s Oldest Person, Dies at 117.”)

Before Co-founding “Colossal” Private For-Profit Firm, George Church “Was Planning on Slogging Along at a Slow Pace” in Academia

Harvard Professor George Church chooses to pursue his bold dream of bringing wooly mammoths back to life through a private firm rather than through a nonprofit organization or an educational institution. Is that because nimble innovation is less constrained in a private for-profit firm?

(p. D3) A team of scientists and entrepreneurs announced on Monday that they have started a new company to genetically resurrect the woolly mammoth.

The company, named Colossal, aims to place thousands of these magnificent beasts back on the Siberian tundra, thousands of years after they went extinct.

“This is a major milestone for us,” said George Church, a biologist at Harvard Medical School, who for eight years has been leading a small team of moonlighting researchers developing the tools for reviving mammoths. “It’s going to make all the difference in the world.”

. . .

The idea behind Colossal first emerged into public view in 2013, when Dr. Church sketched it out in a talk at the National Geographic Society.

. . .

Russian ecologists have imported bison and other living species to a preserve in Siberia they’ve dubbed Pleistocene Park, in the hopes of turning the tundra back to grassland. Dr. Church argued that resurrected woolly mammoths would be able to do this more efficiently. The restored grassland would keep the soil from melting and eroding, he argued, and might even lock away heat-trapping carbon dioxide.

Dr. Church’s proposal attracted a lot of attention from the press but little funding beyond $100,000 from PayPal co-founder Peter Thiel.

. . .

“Frankly, I was planning on slogging along at a slow pace,” Dr. Church said. But in 2019, he was contacted by Ben Lamm, the founder of the Texas-based artificial intelligence company Hypergiant, who was intrigued by press reports of the de-extinction idea.

Mr. Lamm visited Dr. Church’s lab, and the two hit it off. “After about a day of being in the lab and spending a lot of time with George, we were pretty passionate on pursuing this,” Mr. Lamm said.

Mr. Lamm began setting up Colossal to support Dr. Church’s work, all the way from tinkering with DNA to eventually placing “a functional mammoth,” as Dr. Hysolli calls it, in the wild.

The company’s initial funding comes from investors ranging from Climate Capital Collective, an investment group that backs efforts to lower carbon emissions, to the Winklevoss twins, known for their battles over Facebook and investments in Bitcoin.

. . .

Heather Browning, a philosopher at the London School of Economics, said that whatever benefits mammoths might have to the tundra will need to be weighed against the possible suffering that they might experience in being brought into existence by scientists.

“You don’t have a mother for a species that — if they are anything like elephants — has extraordinarily strong mother-infant bonds that last for a very long time,” she said. “Once there is a little mammoth or two on the ground, who is making sure that they’re being looked after?”

And Colossal’s investors may have questions of their own: How will these mammoths make any money? Mr. Lamm predicted that the company would be able to spin off new forms of genetic engineering and reproductive technology.

“We are hopeful and confident that there will be technologies that come out of it that we can build individual business units out of,” Mr. Lamm said.

For the full story see:

Carl Zimmer. “MATTER; A Company Aims to Restock the Woolly Mammoth.” The New York Times (Tuesday, September 14, 2021 [sic]): D3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story was updated Sept. 30 [sic], 2021 [sic], and has the title “MATTER; A New Company With a Wild Mission: Bring Back the Woolly Mammoth.”)

Not All Indians Were Peaceful Saints

The scalp of William Thompson. Source of photo: Omaha Public Library.

As I child I played cowboys and Indians. We used to fire the fake rifles at the frontier fort on Tom Sawyer Island in Disneyland. Today you cannot do that since it is politically correct to believe that before the arrival of universally evil Europeans all Indians were peace-loving environmentalists. The belief is false. But The Walt Disney Company in California has bought the falsehood, closing the Disneyland frontier fort so that children can no longer pretend to defend civilization. (In Florida, where civilization yet survives, The Walt Disney Company still allows children to play in the Magic Kingdom version of the frontier fort.)

(p. E1) I’m leading off with my nomination for the most bizarre item ever exhibited in Omaha. It’s been around for more than 150 years, and it’s a shame if you haven’t seen it–that is, as long as you’re not too squeamish It used to belong to William Thompson, an Englishman who was employed by Union Pacific on the new transcontinental railroad.

In 1867, while working at Plum Creek Station, near Lexington, Nebraska, Thompson was scalped by a band of the Northern Cheyenne. He was left for dead, but when he recovered consciousness, he found his scalp not far away. Remarkably, he put it in a bucker of salt water and headed to Omaha on a rescue train. On arrival he asked Dr. Richard Moore to reattach it. That wasn’t possible, so he kept it as a souvenir. Later he gave the preserved scalp to Moore, who donated it to the Omaha Public Library in 1900. Since then, it has been exhibited from time to time at both the old Union Pacific Museum and the main library. OPL took it off public exhibit in 1977, but it made a surprise appearance in 2012 for the library’s 140th anniversary celebration. I am grateful to library specialist Lynn Sullivan for a private showing last year of the desiccated scalp, complete with a nice shock of sandy-orange hair.

For the full story see:

Marks, Bob. “Weird, Wild and Wonderful Exhibits Here.” Omaha World-Herald (Sunday, March 21, 2024): E1-E2.

Successes of Thiel’s Entrepreneurial Anti-College Fellowships Undermine Veneration of Higher Ed

Gary Becker won the Nobel Prize in part for his work as a founder of the study of the economics of human capital. One common finding of the field is that investment in higher education has a high rate of return. So Becker was puzzled when his own grandson pondered skipping college in order to directly become a technology entrepreneur.

I speculate that information technology will make it increasingly easy for autodidacts to learn on their own what they need to know, whenever they need to know it. I further speculate that formal education, especially formal higher education, will wither into irrelevance, just as the Post Office has withered in the face of email and Amazon.

(p. B4) Peter Thiel is trying harder than ever to get young people to skip college.

Since 2010, Thiel, an early Facebook investor and a founder of PayPal Holdings, has offered to pay students $100,000 to drop out of school to start companies or nonprofits.

. . .

Some big successes include Vitalik Buterin, co-founder of Ethereum, the blockchain network; Laura Deming, a key figure in venture investing in aging and longevity; Austin Russell, who runs self-driving technologies company Luminar Technologies; and Paul Gu, co-founder of consumer lending company Upstart.

When he began his fellowship, Thiel, a vocal libertarian who was an active supporter of Donald Trump in 2016, was disenchanted with leading colleges and convinced they weren’t best suited for many young people.

His aim, at least in part, was to undermine the popular view that college was necessary for all students, and that top universities should be accorded prestige and veneration.

Since then, public opinion has shifted toward his perspective. More Americans are rethinking the value of a college education. At the same time, America’s elite universities have come under fire for their handling of a surge in antisemitism and for maintaining what critics call a double standard regarding free speech.

For the full story see:

Gregory Zuckerman. “Thiel’s Offer to Skip College Draws Many.” The Wall Street Journal (Monday, Feb. 26, 2024): B4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date February 24, 2024, and has the title “Peter Thiel’s $100,000 Offer to Skip College Is More Popular Than Ever.”)

Becker is best known for:

Becker, Gary S. Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis; with Special Reference to Education. 3rd ed. New York: Columbia University Press, 1993.

$6 Billion of Taxpayer Money Wasted in 2021 for Bogus Hospital “Facility” Fees Where No Hospital Facility Was Used

The complexity, opaqueness, arbitrariness, and conflicts of interest of government healthcare, as exemplified by Medicare, make it rife for several kinds of inefficiency and fraud. The passages quoted below, document one kind.

(p. B4) Hospitals are adding billions of dollars in facility fees to medical bills for routine care in outpatient centers they own. Once an annoyance, the fees are now pervasive, and in some places they are becoming nearly impossible to avoid, data compiled for The Wall Street Journal show. The fees are spreading as hospitals press on with acquisitions, snapping up medical groups and tacking on the additional charges.

The fees raise prices by hundreds of dollars for widely used and standard medical care, including colonoscopies, mammograms and heart screening.

The added cost isn’t justified, physicians and economists say. Medicare advisers said last year the federal insurer likely overpaid for a sample of services by about $6 billion because of the fees in 2021.

. . .

The fees show up on patients’ bills after hospitals snap up clinics and doctors. Hospitals can designate the newly acquired clinics as an extension of their operations, forcing patients to pay the fees to cover costs for the entire hospital.

Fees have grown more pervasive as hospitals have gone on an acquisition tear in recent years, chasing after patients who have more options to get medical care somewhere else. Many hospital systems now get at least half their revenue from patients who aren’t admitted. By one estimate, more than half of doctors work for hospitals.

For the full story see:

Melanie Evans. “Patients Rack Up Hidden Hospital Fees.” The Wall Street Journal (Tuesday, March 26, 2024): B4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date March 25, 2024, and has the title “Hospitals Are Adding Billions in ‘Facility’ Fees for Routine Care.”)

Federal Government Creates Perverse Incentives for Medical Insurers to Harvest Diagnoses for Untreated Maladies in the So-Called Medical “Advantage” Program

Notice that the federal government has set up the incentives of the Medicare Advantage program so that insurers will receive benefits, but no costs, for diagnosing patients with certain conditions, that the patients have not asked them to treat. The nurse home visits aimed at harvesting diagnoses do not benefit patients, but instead waste patients’ time and taxpayers’ money. Is UnitedHealth Group the most despicable organization for shamelessly exploiting the perverse incentives, or is the federal government the most despicable organization for creating the perverse incentives?

(p. A3) Millions of times each year, insurers send nurses into the homes of Medicare recipients to look them over, run tests and ask dozens of questions.

The nurses aren’t there to treat anyone. They are gathering new diagnoses that entitle private Medicare Advantage insurers to collect extra money from the federal government.

A Wall Street Journal investigation of insurer home visits found the companies pushed nurses to run screening tests and add unusual diagnoses, turning the roughly hourlong stops in patients’ homes into an extra $1,818 per visit, on average, from 2019 to 2021. Those payments added up to about $15 billion during that period, according (p. A9) to a Journal analysis of Medicare data.

Nurse practitioner Shelley Manke, who used to work for the HouseCalls unit of UnitedHealth Group, was part of that small army making home visits. She made a half-dozen or so visits a day, she said in a recent interview.

Part of her routine, she said, was to warm up the big toes of her patients and use a portable testing device to measure how well blood was flowing to their extremities. The insurers were checking for cases of peripheral artery disease, a narrowing of blood vessels. Each new case entitled them to collect an extra $2,500 or so a year at that time.

But Manke didn’t trust the device. She had tried it on herself and had gotten an array of results. When she and other nurses raised concerns with managers, she said, they were told the company believed that data supported the tests and that they needed to keep using the device.

“It made me cringe,” said Manke, who stopped working for HouseCalls in 2022. “I didn’t think the diagnosis should come from us, period, because I didn’t feel we had an adequate test.”

. . .

Last month, the Journal reported that insurers received nearly $50 billion in payments from 2019 to 2021 due to diagnoses they added themselves for conditions that no doctor or hospital treated. Many of the insurer-driven diagnoses were outright wrong or highly questionable, the Journal found.

. . .

In the Medicare Advantage system—conceived as a lower-cost alternative to traditional Medicare—private insurers get paid a lump sum to provide health benefits to about half of the 67 million seniors and disabled people in the federal program. The payments go up when people have certain diseases, giving insurers an incentive to diagnose those conditions.

To find out how insurers use home visits to add diagnoses, the Journal interviewed nurses, patients, home-visit managers and industry executives and reviewed hundreds of pages of internal documents from home-visit companies. They described a system that used nurses, software and audits to generate diagnoses.

“They do the job with a purpose, and it pays off for the Medicare Advantage plans,” said Francois de Brantes, a former executive at Signify Health, a company that does home visits for insurers. “Identifying the diagnoses, that’s the job.”

. . .

Secondary hyperaldosteronism, a condition in which levels of the hormone aldosterone rise, is rarely diagnosed in traditional Medicare patients. HouseCalls documents show that its software would suggest the diagnosis if a patient had a history of heart failure or cirrhosis, and either took certain drugs, such as diuretics, or had swelling due to fluid retention. Nurses weren’t required to confirm the diagnosis with a lab test.

“In a million years, I wouldn’t have come up with a diagnosis of secondary hyperaldosteronism,” said Bell, the former HouseCalls nurse.

UnitedHealth diagnosed it 246,000 times after home visits, leading to $450 million in payments over the three years of the Journal’s analysis. All other Medicare insurers combined collected $42 million from making that diagnosis after home visits.

For the full story see:

Anna Wilde Mathews, Christopher Weaver, Tom McGinty and Mark Maremont. “Nurse Visits Made Insurers $15 Billion.” The Wall Street Journal (Tuesday, Aug. 6, 2024): A1 & A9.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date August 4, 2024, and has the title “The One-Hour Nurse Visits That Let Insurers Collect $15 Billion From Medicare.”)

Start-Ups Succeed When They Give Up Work-Life Balance in Order to “Work Like Hell”

(p. B4) Eric Schmidt, ex-CEO and executive chairman at Google, walked back remarks in which he said his former company was losing the artificial intelligence race because of its remote-work policies.

. . .

“Google decided that work-life balance and going home early and working from home was more important than winning,” Schmidt said at Stanford. “The reason startups work is because the people work like hell.”

For the full story see:

Joseph De Avila. “Ex-CEO Criticizes Google, Retracts It.” The Wall Street Journal (Thursday, Aug. 15, 2024): B4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story was updated Aug. 14, 2024, and has the title “Eric Schmidt Walks Back Claim Google Is Behind on AI Because of Remote Work.”)