Economics – Page 209 – artdiamondblog.com

Jeff Bezos’ Goal: “Earth’s Biggest Selection”

Jeff Bezos. Source of photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.

(p. 18) You’re a longtime science buff who studied electrical engineering and computer science at Princeton. Why did you want to be a bookseller in the first place?
You have to go back in time to 1994, and there’s something very unusual about the book category. There are more items in the book category than there are items in any other product category. One of the things it was obvious you could do with an online store is have a much more complete selection.

Initially, Amazon sold books exclusively, but it has since expanded into a retail omnivore that sells basketballs and vacuum cleaners and hamster food and everything under the sun. What is your goal, exactly?
We want to have earth’s biggest selection. Earth’s biggest river, earth’s biggest selection.

For the full interview, see:
DEBORAH SOLOMON. “QUESTIONS FOR Jeffrey P. Bezos; Book Learning.” The New York Times, Magazine Section (Sun., December 6, 2009): 18.

(Note: bold in original, to indicate questions by Deborah Solomon.)
(Note: the online version of the interview is dated December 2, 2009.)

Looking at Gender Gap, Claudia Goldin Sees: “Lots of Evidence of People Making Rational Choices”

(p. A2) Cornell University economists Francine D. Blau and Lawrence M. Kahn found that after adjusting for factors such as education, experience, occupation and industry, the remaining, “unexplained” gender gap in 1998 was nine percentage points. Women also are likely to interrupt their careers, often to start a family, and such breaks can derail promotions and raises.

“When you first see the numbers, you would say there is a glass ceiling,” says Harvard University economist Claudia Goldin. “And yet when you scrutinize the data, you find lots of evidence of people making rational choices.”

For the full commentary, see:
CARL BIALIK. “THE NUMBERS GUY; Not All Differences in Earnings Are Created Equal.” The Wall Street Journal (Sat., APRIL 10, 2010): A2.

Post-War Freedom, Not FDR’s New Deal or War, Ended Great Depression

(p. A17) Roosevelt died before the war ended and before he could implement his New Deal revival. His successor, Harry Truman, in a 16,000 word message on Sept. 6, 1945, urged Congress to enact FDR’s ideas as the best way to achieve full employment after the war.

Congress–both chambers with Democratic majorities–responded by just saying “no.” No to the whole New Deal revival: no federal program for health care, no full-employment act, only limited federal housing, and no increase in minimum wage or Social Security benefits.
Instead, Congress reduced taxes. Income tax rates were cut across the board. FDR’s top marginal rate, 94% on all income over $200,000, was cut to 86.45%. The lowest rate was cut to 19% from 23%, and with a change in the amount of income exempt from taxation an estimated 12 million Americans were eliminated from the tax rolls entirely.
. . .
Congress substituted the tonic of freedom for FDR’s New Deal revival and the American economy recovered well. Unemployment, which had been in double digits throughout the 1930s, was only 3.9% in 1946 and, except for a couple of short recessions, remained in that range for the next decade.
The Great Depression was over, no thanks to FDR. Yet the myth of his New Deal lives on. With the current effort by President Obama to emulate some of FDR’s programs to get us out of the recent deep recession, this myth should be laid to rest.

For the full commentary, see:
BURTON FOLSOM JR. AND ANITA FOLSOM. “Did FDR End the Depression?
The economy took off after the postwar Congress cut taxes.” The Wall Street Journal (Mon., APRIL 12, 2010): A17.
(Note: ellipsis added.)

“Disrespectful to Take Money from One Man’s Pocket and Put It in Another’s”

“A March fair to raise private funding for community centers, held at Westside Community Center, was sparsely attended.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.

(p. A1) COLORADO SPRINGS, Colo.–Like many American cities, this one is strapped for cash. Tax collections here have fallen so far that the city has turned off one-third of its 24,512 street lights.

But unlike many cities, this one is full of people who are eager for more government cutbacks.
The town council has been bombarded with emails telling it to close community centers. Letters to the local newspaper call for shrinking the police department and putting the city-owned utility up for sale. A commission is studying whether to sell the municipal hospital. Another, made up of local businessmen, will opine on whether to slash the salaries and benefits of city employees.
“Let’s start cutting stupid programs that cost taxpayers a pot of money,” says Tim Austin, a 48-year-old former home builder now looking for a new line of work. “It’s so bullying and disrespectful to take money from one man’s pocket and put it in another’s.”

For the full story, see:

LESLIE EATON. “Strapped City Cuts and Cuts and Cuts.” The Wall Street Journal (Tues., APRIL 13, 2010): A1 & A16.

Districts with More Government Pork Have Less Private Hiring

(p. A19) You can’t read models, but you do talk to entrepreneurs in Racine and Yakima. Higher deficits will make them more insecure and more risk-averse, not less. They’re afraid of a fiscal crisis. They’re afraid of future tax increases. They don’t believe government-stimulated growth is real and lasting. Maybe they are wrong to feel this way, but they do. And they are the ones who invest and hire, not the theorists.

The Demand Siders are brilliant, but they write as if changing fiscal policy were as easy as adjusting the knob on your stove. In fact, it’s very hard to get money out the door and impossible to do it quickly. It’s hard to find worthwhile programs to pour money into. Once programs exist, it’s nearly impossible to kill them. Spending now creates debt forever and ever.
Moreover, public spending seems to have odd knock-off effects. Professors Lauren Cohen, Joshua Coval and Christopher Malloy of Harvard surveyed 42 years of government spending increases in certain Congressional districts. They found that federal spending increases dampened corporate hiring and investment in those districts.

For the full commentary, see:

DAVID BROOKS. “A Little Economic Realism.” The New York Times (Tues., July 6, 2010): A19.
(Note: the online version of the article is dated July 5, 2010.)

The research referenced is:
Cohen, Lauren, Joshua D. Coval, and Christopher J. Malloy. “Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?” NBER Working Paper No.15839, March 2010.

Cro-Magnon Provides Baseline to Measure Our Progress

Source of book image:
http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51BS%2BtGJZ8L.jpg

Biologically modern humans have inhabited the world for at least 50,000 years, and maybe for 100,000 years or more.
Only in the last 200 years, and especially the last 100 years, has humanity made substantial progress in the quality and quantity of life.
Usually the most recent 200 years are compared with the previous few thousand, because conditions in the previous few thousand years are much better known than those in the tens of thousands of years further in the past.
But comparisons further back are of interest, and Brian Fagan’s book Cro-Magnon is a source of some information that allows us to do so to some extent.
In the next few weeks, I will occasionally be quoting a few passages from Fagan that I believe are suggestive.

The reference for the Fagan book is:
Fagan, Brian. Cro-Magnon: How the Ice Age Gave Birth to the First Modern Humans. New York: Bloomsbury Press, 2010.

Lux et Veritas

Source of photo: http://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/Features/EarthPerspectives/

What is the extended island-country on the right side of the photo above?
OK, if you got that one, here’s a harder question: What is the smaller island-country to the left of the extended island-country?
Stumped? Well it’s a trick question. The island-country to the left is South Korea.
But, you say, South Korea is no island.
You are right. (But then ponder why it looks like an island.)

Credits:
I first saw a version of the above photo, and heard a version of the above interpretation, in a wonderful presentation by Tony Woodlief at the MBM University at Wichita in July 2010.
The photo is a satellite composite from NASA.
“Lux et Veritas” is the motto of Yale University and is Latin for “Light and Truth.” (Three years of high school Latin pay off again—thank you Miss Noble and Miss Rohrer!)

“Pork Actually Pushes Private Investment Out of a State”

Some West Virginia miners may have faced unemployment due to technological progress. But what they needed to improve their situation was economic growth from private enterprise, rather than Senator Robert Byrd’s federal pork.

(p. A11) . . . mining companies developed more efficient techniques for extracting coal and natural gas, which eliminated the need for many blue collar jobs. Laid-off workers lacked the skills to attract other types of businesses and college students couldn’t find jobs after graduation, so they left. Such dramatic changes would be serious obstacles for any politician.

. . .
By contrast, Byrd’s solution was to steer federal largess to his state.
. . .
Take Route 50. Thirty years ago, the federal government extended the route from two lanes to four with the hopes of spurring development. But hit the open road today and you’ll notice it’s just that–open. “You won’t see another car for two hours,” says Russell Sobel, a professor of economics at West Virginia University. “You can’t just build roads and expect that things will happen. People who want to transport goods and services need to be there.”
. . .
“We’ve created this culture of dependency,” warns Mr. Sobel, “Our human capital is not good at competing in the marketplace; it’s good at securing federal grants.”
Federal funding is a shaky foundation for an economy because no one can replace Big Daddy. In their recently released paper “Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?” Harvard professors Lauren Cohen, Joshua Coval and Christopher Malloy found that states that lose chairmanships on important congressional committees lose 20% to 30% in earmarks.
Even worse, they found that pork actually pushes private investment out of a state. When the federal government intrudes, it raises demand for the state’s workers and real estate, jacking up prices. Often, companies can’t compete, so they flee.

For the full commentary, see:
BRIAN BOLDUC. “CROSS COUNTRY; Robert Byrd’s Highways to Nowhere; Government pork hasn’t made West Virginia prosperous.” The Wall Street Journal (Sat., JULY 10, 2010): A11.
(Note: ellipses added.)

The research referenced is:
Cohen, Lauren, Joshua D. Coval, and Christopher J. Malloy. “Do Powerful Politicians Cause Corporate Downsizing?” NBER Working Paper No.15839, March 2010.

Feds’ Sugar Quotas Lead to More Demand for Obesity-Causing Corn Syrup

Source of graph: online version of the Omaha World-Herald article quoted and cited below.

The federal government puts quotas on the amount of sugar that can be imported from abroad, with the result that U.S. consumers pay higher prices for sugar. One result, as taught in economics micro principles courses, is that demand increases for sugar substitutes, such as corn syrup.
Evidence is accumulating (see below) that corn syrup is worse for our health than sugar.
Michelle Obama is leading a drive to reduce obesity. If she is serious, she can begin by asking her husband to ask his congress to remove import quotas on sugar.

(p. 2A) Well-publicized research also has suggested that high fructose corn syrup poses an even greater threat of obesity and other health problems than regular table sugar.
. . .
Researchers at Princeton University made headlines earlier this year when they released the results of a study that found rats drinking a high fructose corn syrup beverage for six months showed abnormal weight gain and other factors indicating obesity. The study concluded that overconsumption of the sweetener “could very well be a major factor in the ‘obesity epidemic,’ which correlates with the upsurge in the use of HFCS.”
A related study found that rats drinking the high fructose corn syrup solution gained more weight than rats drinking a basic sucrose solution.
“The conclusion from that is that high fructose corn syrup and sucrose are not the same after all,” said Bart Hoebel, the professor who worked on the study.

For the full story, see:

Ross Boettcher and Joseph Morton. “Is Corn Syrup Slump Healthy? ConAgra, Farmers Divided.” Omaha World-Herald (Wednesday, July 26, 2010): 1A-2A.
(Note: ellipsis added.)
(Note: the online version of the article is dated July 26, 2010 and has the title “Consumers sour on sugars.)

Employment Further Below Trend than Any Time in Half Century

Source of graph: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.

(p. A15) The number of nonfarm private jobs has been growing steadily since the 1950s. That number reached a peak at the end of 2007. Between 1958 and 2007, the number of U.S. jobs grew to 115.4 million from 43.5 million–about 2% per year on average. The steady upward trend reflects the long-run growth of the economy and increased participation in the labor force.

The nearby chart compares employment and that trend. It shows the percentage difference between employment and the trend line generated from monthly employment figures over the past 50 years (July 1960 through June 2010).
What we see is astounding. For almost 25 years–between 1984 and late 2008–the level of employment never fell to more than 3% below the trend line. Over that period, total employment grew by more than 36 million.
Employment fell briefly to about 6% below the trend during two previous recessions: in 1975 and again in 1982-1983. During those periods, the unemployment-rate peaks were 9% (in 1974) and 10.8% (in 1982). The unemployment rate in 2009 peaked at 10.1%.
By 2010, however, employment had fallen to about 10% below the trend, far below any previous level in the last half-century.

For the full commentary, see:
PAUL GODEK. “Jobless Numbers Are Worse Than You Think; The situation is much more dire now than it was during the 1980s.” The Wall Street Journal (Fri., JULY 23, 2010): A15.

“Portland Sucks” Pokes Fun at Angry, Elitest Localism

“Mr. Bechard came to blows when he encountered the organizer of a national culinary contest held in Portland, over the winning pig from Iowa. He objected to the pig’s origin because the flier he received from the event advertised local farms and local chefs.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.

(p. A9) In its song “Portland Sucks,” the local band White Fang pokes profanely at everything from the city’s joblessness to its self-obsession and sometimes counterintuitive rigidity, from “angry vegans” to outspoken disciples of do-it-yourself (“DIY”) culture (p. A12) — localism in the extreme.

“Being elitist about it is kind of counterproductive,” said Erik Gage, 21, the band’s lead singer, . . .
. . .
For Mr. Bechard, it came down to this: never should a pig from Kansas or Iowa have even been entered in the contest; it only made it worse that the Iowa pig won. After all, there are Red Wattle heritage pigs raised right here in Oregon. The chefs who competed work in Oregon, and most promote locally produced food.
“I get there and I get the flier and I’m immediately sickened because I’m seeing ‘local,’ ‘sustainable,’ ‘local farms,’ ‘local chefs,’ ‘local wine,’ ” Mr. Bechard recalled, “and then two of the pigs are from Kansas and Iowa? I’m looking at my friend and he said, ‘Eric, just let it go.’ ”
Many hours and drinks and insults later, witnesses told police Mr. Bechard was the aggressor when he encountered Brady Lowe, the event’s Atlanta-based organizer, outside a bar. Words were hurled and fists flew. The police came, firing Tasers and pepper spray.
Mr. Lowe, who said his leg was fractured in the fight, said Mr. Bechard “missed the big picture” . . .
“To grow you need to bring in ideas from the outside or you’re just living in a closed community,” he added.

For the full story, see:
WILLIAM YARDLEY. “Portland Journal; The Pride and Prejudice of ‘Local’.” The New York Times (Fri., July 9, 2010): A9.
(Note: the online version of the article is dated July 8, 2010.)
(Note: ellipses added.)

“In its song, “Portland Sucks”, the local band White Fang pokes profanely at everything from “angry vegans” to outspoken disciples of do-it-yourself culture–localism in the extreme. “Being elitist about it is kind of counterproductive,” said Erik Gage, right, the band’s lead singer. “You can argue about it, but I think one of the most important things about localism is getting along with the locals.”” Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited above.