Kahneman’s “Adversarial Collaboration” Might Bring Us More Joy and Better Science

(p. A19) Professor Kahneman, who died . . . at the age of 90, is best known for his pathbreaking explorations of human judgment and decision making and of how people deviate from perfect rationality. He should also be remembered for a living and working philosophy that has never been more relevant: his enthusiasm for collaborating with his intellectual adversaries. This enthusiasm was deeply personal. He experienced real joy working with others to discover the truth, even if he learned that he was wrong (something that often delighted him).

. . .

Professor Kahneman saw . . . “angry science,” which he described as a “nasty world of critiques, replies and rejoinders” and “as a contest, where the aim is to embarrass.” As Professor Kahneman put it, those who live in that nasty world offer “a summary caricature of the target position, refute the weakest argument in that caricature and declare the total destruction of the adversary’s position.” In his account, angry science is “a demeaning experience.”

. . .

Professor Kahneman meant both to encourage better science and to strengthen the better angels of our nature.

For the full commentary see:

Cass R. Sunstein. “The Value of Collaborating With Adversaries.” The New York Times (Wednesday, April 3, 2024): A19.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date April 1, 2024, and has the title “The Nobel Winner Who Liked to Collaborate With His Adversaries.”)

Since Wood Tools Are Rarely Preserved, “Preservation Bias Distorts Our View of Antiquity”

(p. D3) In 1836, Christian Jürgensen Thomsen, a Danish antiquarian, brought the first semblance of order to prehistory, suggesting that the early hominids of Europe had gone through three stages of technological development that were reflected in the production of tools. The basic chronology — Stone Age to Bronze Age to Iron Age — now underpins the archaeology of most of the Old World (and cartoons like “The Flintstones” and “The Croods”).

Thomsen could well have substituted Wood Age for Stone Age, according to Thomas Terberger, an archaeologist and head of research at the Department of Cultural Heritage of Lower Saxony, in Germany.

“We can probably assume that wooden tools have been around just as long as stone ones, that is, two and a half or three million years,“ he said. “But since wood deteriorates and rarely survives, preservation bias distorts our view of antiquity.” Primitive stone implements have traditionally characterized the Lower Paleolithic period, which lasted from about 2.7 million years ago to 200,000 years ago. Of the thousands of archaeological sites that can be traced to the era, wood has been recovered from fewer than 10.

Dr. Terberger was team leader of a study published last month in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences that provided the first comprehensive report on the wooden objects excavated from 1994 to 2008 in the peat of an open-pit coal mine near Schöningen, in northern Germany. The rich haul included two dozen complete or fragmented spears (each about as tall as an N.B.A. center) and double-pointed throwing sticks (half the length of a pool cue) but no hominid bones. The objects date from the end of a warm interglacial period 300,000 years ago, about when early Neanderthals were supplanting Homo heidelbergensis, their immediate predecessors in Europe. The projectiles unearthed at the Schöningen site, known as Spear Horizon, are considered the oldest preserved hunting weapons.

For the full story see:

Franz Lidz. “In the Stone Age, Wood Was Pivotal, a Study Says.” The New York Times (Tuesday, May 7, 2024): D3.

(Note: the online version of the story was updated May 6, 2024, and has the title “Was the Stone Age Actually the Wood Age?”)

Terberger’s co-authored academic paper mentioned above is:

Leder, Dirk, Jens Lehmann, Annemieke Milks, Tim Koddenberg, Michael Sietz, Matthias Vogel, Utz Böhner, and Thomas Terberger. “The Wooden Artifacts from Schöningen’s Spear Horizon and Their Place in Human Evolution.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 121, no. 15 (2024): e2320484121.

Some Variants of One Mitochondrial Gene Double Your Odds of Living to 100

(p. D3) . . . what made the great blooming of biodiversity possible? Dr. Lane, building on ideas developed with the evolutionary biologist William Martin, traces its origins to a freak accident billions of years ago, when one microbe took up residence inside another. This event was not a branching of the evolutionary tree but a fusion with, he argues, profound consequences.

The new tenant provided energy for its host, paying chemical rent in exchange for safe dwelling. With this additional income, the host cell could afford investments in more complex biological amenities. The pairing thrived, replicated and evolved.

Today we call these inner microbes mitochondria; nearly every cell in our body has thousands of these energy factories. Dr. Lane and Dr. Martin have argued that because of mitochondria, complex cells have nearly 200,000 times as much energy per gene, setting the stage for larger genomes and unfettered evolution.

. . .

With age, mitochondrial mutations accumulate. Elsewhere, Dr. Lane has pointed to research showing that variants in a single mitochondrial gene halved the prospect of being hospitalized for age-related disease in patients who have them, and doubled the prospect of living to 100. This finding, Dr. Lane believes, could lead to medical advances if we understood how to protect mitochondrial DNA.

“How can we hope to understand disease,” he asks, “if we have no idea why cells work the way they do?”

. . .

Whether research will bear him out remains to be seen, but Dr. Lane’s many predictions, however incredible they seem, are testable and could keep scientists busy for years. As Sherlock Holmes remarked, “When you have eliminated the impossible, then whatever remains, however improbable, must be the truth.”

For the full review see:

Tim Requarth. “Rethinking the Textbook on Life.” The New York Times (Tuesday, July 21, 2015 [sic]): D3.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the review was updated July 20, 2015 [sic], and has the title “Book Review: Taking on ‘The Vital Question’ About Life.”)

The book under review is:

Lane, Nick. The Vital Question: Energy, Evolution, and the Origins of Complex Life. New York: W. W. Norton & Company, 2015.

Seeds of Plant Mostly Used for Pain Relief in Roman Era, Found Stashed in Buried Bone in “Far-Flung” Province

A couple of thousand years ago some humans had figured out how to use a medicinal plant for effective pain relief. And they did so without having conducted randomized double-blind clinical trials. And no agency of the government blocked them from easing their pain.

(p. D2) . . ., Mr. van Haasteren was cleaning the mud from yet another bone when something unexpected happened: Hundreds of black specks the size of poppy seeds came pouring out from one end.

The specks turned out to be seeds of black henbane, a potently poisonous member of the nightshade family that can be medicinal or hallucinogenic depending on the dosage.  . . .

This “very special” discovery provides the first definitive evidence that Indigenous people living in such a far-flung Roman province had knowledge of black henbane’s powerful properties, said Maaike Groot, an archaeozoologist at the Free University of Berlin and a co-author of a paper published in the journal Antiquity last month describing the finding.

The plant was mostly used during Roman times as an ointment for pain relief, although some sources also reference smoking its seeds or adding its leaves to wine.

For the full story see:

Rachel Nuwer. “Psychedelic Stash: Ancient Seeds Courtesy of a Doctor, or a Doctor Feel Good.” The New York Times (Tuesday, April 9, 2024): D2.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date March 21, 2024, and has the title “Long Before Amsterdam’s Coffee Shops, There Were Hallucinogenic Seeds.”)

The academic paper co-authored by Groot and mentioned above is:

Groot, Maaike, Martijn van Haasteren, and Laura I. Kooistra. “Evidence of the Intentional Use of Black Henbane (Hyoscyamus niger) in the Roman Netherlands.” Antiquity 98, no. 398 (2024): 470-85.

Babies’ Curiosity Leads Them to Prefer Persons Who Inform

(p. C2) . . . Katarina Begus of Birkbeck, University of London and her colleagues . . . started out exploring the origins of curiosity. When grown-ups think that they are about to learn something new, their brains exhibit a pattern of activity called a theta wave. The researchers fitted out 45 11-month-old babies with little caps covered with electrodes to record brain activity. The researchers wanted to see if the babies would also produce theta waves when they thought that they might learn something new.

The babies saw two very similar-looking people interact with a familiar toy like a rubber duck. One experimenter pointed at the toy and said, “That’s a duck.” The other just pointed at the object and instead of naming it made a noise: She said “oooh” in an uninformative way.

Then the babies saw one of the experimenters pick up an unfamiliar gadget. You would expect that the person who told you the name of the duck could also tell you about this new thing. And, sure enough, when the babies saw the informative experimenter, their brains produced theta waves, as if they expected to learn something. On the other hand, you might expect that the experimenter who didn’t tell you anything about the duck would also be unlikely to help you learn more about the new object. Indeed, the babies didn’t produce theta waves when they saw this uninformative person.

. . .

Babies leap at the chance to learn something new—and can figure out who is likely to teach them. The babies did prefer the person in their own group, but that may have reflected curiosity, not bias. They thought that someone who spoke the same language could tell them the most about the world around them.

For the full commentary see:

Alison Gopnik. “Mind & Matter; Babies Show a Clear Bias—To Learn New Things.” The Wall Street Journal (Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 [sic]): C2.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary was updated Oct. 26, 2016 [sic], and has the same title as the print version.)

Begus’s co-authored academic paper is:

Begus, Katarina, Teodora Gliga, and Victoria Southgate. “Infants’ Preferences for Native Speakers Are Associated with an Expectation of Information.” Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 113, no. 44 (2016): 12397-402.

Pious Climate “Scare Tactics” Lead to Despondency and Bad Policy

(p. A15) Whatever happened to polar bears? They used to be all climate campaigners could talk about, but now they’re essentially absent from headlines. Over the past 20 years, climate activists have elevated various stories of climate catastrophe, then quietly dropped them without apology when the opposing evidence becomes overwhelming. The only constant is the scare tactics.

. . .

After years of misrepresentation, it finally became impossible to ignore the mountain of evidence showing that the global polar-bear population has increased substantially.

. . .

For the past three years the Great Barrier Reef has had more coral cover than at any point since records began in 1986, with 2024 setting a new record.

. . .

Today, killer heat waves are the new climate horror story. In July President Biden claimed “extreme heat is the No. 1 weather-related killer in the United States.”

He is wrong by a factor of 25. While extreme heat kills nearly 6,000 Americans each year, cold kills 152,000, of which 12,000 die from extreme cold. Even including deaths from moderate heat, the toll comes to less than 10,000. Despite rising temperatures, age-standardized extreme-heat deaths have actually declined in the U.S. by almost 10% a decade and globally by even more, largely because the world is growing more prosperous. That allows more people to afford air-conditioners and other technology that protects them from the heat.

. . .

Scare tactics leave everyone—especially young people—distressed and despondent. Fear leads to poor policy choices that further frustrate the public. And the ever-changing narrative of disasters erodes public trust.

Telling half-truths while piously pretending to “follow the science” benefits activists with their fundraising, generates clicks for media outlets, and helps climate-concerned politicians rally their bases. But it leaves all of us poorly informed and worse off.

For the full commentary see:

Bjorn Lomborg. “Polar Bears, Dead Coral and Other Climate Fictions.” The Wall Street Journal (Thursday, Aug. 1, 2024): A15.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date July 31, 2024, and has the same title as the print version.)

“Large Citizen Science Projects” Use Data Mining to Explore Risk Factors for Canine Cancers

(p. 2) Every dog has its day, and July 14, 2004, belonged to a boxer named Tasha. On that date, the National Institutes of Health announced that the barrel-chested, generously jowled canine had become the first dog to have her complete genome sequenced. “And everything has kind of exploded since then,” said Elaine Ostrander, a canine genomics expert at the National Human Genome Research Institute, who was part of the research team.

. . .

In the 2000s, scientists identified the genetic underpinnings of a variety of canine traits, including curly coats and bobbed tails. They pinpointed mutations that could explain why white boxers were prone to deafness. And they found that corgis, basset hounds and dachshunds owed their stubby legs to a genetic aberration in a family of genes that also regulates bone development in humans.

These early studies “highlighted both the potential that we could learn from dogs, but also that we were going to need bigger sample sizes to do it really well,” said Elinor Karlsson, a geneticist at UMass Chan Medical School and the Broad Institute. And so, researchers began creating large citizen science projects, seeking DNA samples and data from dogs across the United States.

Pet owners rose to the challenge. The Golden Retriever Lifetime Study, which began recruiting in 2012, has been following more than 3,000 dogs in an effort to identify genetic and environmental risk factors for cancer, which is especially common in the breed. Since 2019, the Dog Aging Project, a long-term study of health and longevity, has enrolled nearly 50,000 dogs.

Dr. Karlsson’s own project, Darwin’s Dogs, is at 44,000 canines and counting. (Some 4,000 have had their genomes sequenced.) Researchers are mining the data for clues about bone cancer, compulsive behavior and other traits.

For the full story see:

Emily Anthes. “Scientists’ New Best Friends.” The New York Times, Pets Special Section (Sunday, June 30, 2024): 2.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the same date as the print version, and has the title “How Science Went to the Dogs (and Cats).”)

Climate-Change-Induced Flooding Blamed for Hurting Tiny Flowers, Instead Helped Them “Flourish”

(p. A10) The whimsical image fit when the state of Vermont announced last month that a plant thought to be locally extinct — false mermaid-weed — had been found through a chain of events that seemed stolen from a fairy tale.

It began with a sharp-eyed turtle biologist for the state, Molly Parren. She had been out surveying the habitat of wood turtles in rural Addison County on May 7 [2024] when she spotted some wild meadow garlic, which is extremely rare, beside a stream. Ms. Parren snapped a photo and sent it to her colleague, Grace Glynn, Vermont’s state botanist.

But when Ms. Glynn opened the photo, another plant, visible in the foreground, seized her attention. She knew at once what it was: Floerkea proserpinacoides, or false mermaid-weed, an herb that had not been documented in Vermont for more than a century, and one that Ms. Glynn had sought in vain for years.

. . .

The day after the false mermaid-weed was spotted, Ms. Glynn rushed to the rural site to confirm its presence in person. She found a dense carpet — “so many plants, it was hard to imagine how they had been overlooked,” she said.

And yet her disbelief was familiar. “It happens a lot, people saying, ‘We couldn’t have missed that,’” she said. “But we do, and we’re humbled over and over — I love that.”

Far from an anomaly, rediscoveries of plants thought to be extinct are a relatively regular feature of field botany.

. . .

Tricky as it is to find elusive species, it is harder to pinpoint why they thrive or dwindle, and how such shifts might be related to a changing climate. Flooding is cited as one possible factor in the disappearance of false mermaid-weed from Vermont. And yet flooding in the state last summer may have helped it flourish by the stream where it was found, Ms. Glynn said, by depositing sediment and creating a more hospitable habitat.

For the full story see:

Jenna Russell. “By a Stream in Vermont, Rediscovering a Plant Last Seen a Century Ago.” The New York Times (Friday, June 14, 2024): A10.

(Note: ellipses, and bracketed year, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 11, 2024, and has the title “By a Stream in Vermont, a Glimpse of a Plant Last Seen a Century Ago.”)

Pigeons Can Learn to Accurately Spot Cancerous Breast Cells

(p. C4) . . . researchers at the University of California, Davis, the University of Iowa and Emory University have demonstrated that pigeons are surprisingly good at detecting cancer as well. Using grain as a reward, the scientists managed to train hungry pigeons to reliably spot malignancies in images of human breast cells.

The birds achieved roughly 85% accuracy, which is probably better than beginning medical students, the scientists said, although it doesn’t approach the prowess of seasoned pathologists. On the other hand, the birds’ training only involved 24 slides at four times magnification (and they graduated debt-free). What’s more, when Edward A. Wasserman and his colleagues exploited the “wisdom of flocks” by combining the “votes” of four pigeons on each slide, the birds’ accuracy shot up to an astonishing 99%.

When confronted with mammograms, by contrast, the pigeons were flummoxed. After awhile, they seemed to learn to detect cancer on these images, but when shown new ones, they couldn’t do any better than chance, which implies that they had simply memorized the right calls on the initial images during repeated viewings. By contrast, birds that learned to pick out cancer from tissue samples could carry over their skills to new images.

Why so good with images of actual tissue yet so bad with mammograms? The former consist of breast cells seen under a microscope, while the latter are murkier images of overlapping elements (such as blood vessels) within the breast. Like physicians, pigeons find it easier to make the diagnosis by looking at cells, which is why biopsies are taken.

For the full commentary see:

Daniel Akst. “R&D; Pigeons That Spot Breast Cancer.” The Wall Street Journal (Saturday, Dec. 12, 2015 [sic]): C4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Dec. 11, 2015 [sic], and has the title “R&D; The Pigeons That Can Spot Breast Cancer.”)

The research summarized in the passages quoted above, was published in the academic article:

Levenson, Richard M., Elizabeth A. Krupinski, Victor M. Navarro, and Edward A. Wasserman. “Pigeons (Columba Livia) as Trainable Observers of Pathology and Radiology Breast Cancer Images.” PLOS ONE 10, no. 11 (2015): e0141357.

The Effect of Global Warming on Tropical Islands “Is Not an Exact Science”: Many Islands Are Stable or Even Growing

Environmentalists warned for decades that the biggest threat from global warming is to the survival of small low-lying islands. But as the late great physicist Freeman Dyson observed, the earth is more resilient than we know. In the three-full-page article quoted below, The New York Times (yes, The New York Times) reports that the small low-lying islands are mostly doing just fine.

(p. A6) On a wisp of land in the Indian Ocean, two hops by plane and one bumpy speedboat ride from the nearest continent, the sublime blue waves lapping at the bone-white sand are just about all that breaks the stillness of a hot, windless afternoon.

The very existence of low-slung tropical islands seems improbable, a glitch. A nearly seamless meeting of land and sea, peeking up like an illusion above the violent oceanic expanse, they are among the most marginal environments humans have ever called home.

And indeed, when the world began paying attention to global warming decades ago, these islands, which form atop coral reefs in clusters called atolls, were quickly identified as some of the first places climate change might ravage in their entirety. As the ice caps melted and the seas crept higher, these accidents of geologic history were bound to be corrected and the tiny islands returned to watery oblivion, probably in this century.

Then, not very long ago, researchers began sifting through aerial images and found something startling. They looked at a couple dozen islands first, then several hundred, and by now close to 1,000. They found that over the past few decades, the islands’ edges had wobbled this way and that, eroding here, building there. By and large, though, their area hadn’t shrunk. In some cases, it was the opposite: They grew. The seas rose, and the islands expanded with them.

. . .

(p. A7) It was Darwin who first theorized that atolls were burial sites for dead volcanoes, that these modest, almost shy, formations had astonishing pasts. Only later did scientists discover a key piece of their more recent history: Swings in sea level, they realized, had drowned and exposed the islands several times through the ages. Which didn’t bode particularly well for them today, now that global warming was causing the oceans’ rise to speed up.

To understand what had happened to the atolls since this acceleration began, two researchers, Arthur Webb and Paul Kench, decided to look down at them from above. The scientists collected aerial photos of 27 Pacific islands from the middle of the 20th century. Then, they compared them to recent satellite images. “I’m not sure we really knew what we would find,” Dr. Kench recalled.

Their findings caused an uproar.

The seas had risen an inch or so each decade, yet the waves had kept piling sediment on the islands’ shores, enough to mean that most of them hadn’t changed much in size. Their position on the reef might have shifted. Their shape might be different. Whatever was going on, it clearly wasn’t as simple as oceans rise, islands wash away.

Dr. Webb and Dr. Kench’s study, which came out in 2010, inspired other scientists to hunt for more old photos and conduct further analysis. The patterns they’ve uncovered in recent years are remarkably consistent across the 1,000 or so islands they’ve studied: Some shrank, others grew. Many, however, were stable. These studies have also added to the intrigue by revealing another pattern: Islands in ocean regions where sea level rise is fastest generally haven’t eroded more than those elsewhere.

And yet, to really grasp the forces at work, and to anticipate what they might do to the islands next, scientists also need to study atolls up close. Which is why Dr. Kench came back this spring to the Maldives.

On a blob of jungly land just a few miles north of the Equator, Dr. Kench walked past a section of beach that the currents had eaten away. Several palm trees lay toppled, half-buried in the sand.

“People obsess on that end of the island,” he said. Then he pointed up ahead. “This side has got bigger.”

SCIENCE AS ‘DETECTIVE WORK’

The day before, another island in the same atoll was abuzz with activity. One group of scientists and graduate students measured currents using makeshift buoys. Another group fiddled with a tower-mounted sensor that mapped the waves running up the beach. A third team dove down to the seafloor, where they installed instruments within the intricate coral canyons that, from above, gave the reef its streaky, ethereal look.

One doctoral researcher, Aitana Gea Neuhaus, scooped up a spadeful of sand and beheld the miniature universe it contained: puzzle-piece fragments of coral and calcareous algae in a mad variety of shapes and textures; crushed shells of bivalves, crustaceans and single-celled foraminifera; the sugar-white sand particles that parrotfish churn out of their digestive tracts.

. . .

One morning, Dr. Kench and a few other researchers hacked away a clearing in the jungle and bored a hole in the ground. Down went a six-foot steel pipe.

They were trying to glimpse the island’s deep past, to reconstruct its major chapters, layer by ancient layer. And they had some idea of how far below ground to look, thanks to seismic measurements that Tim Scott, an ocean scientist at Plymouth, had taken. Still, he warned the group: “It’s not an exact science.”

Dr. Scott sledgehammered the pipe down. “This is the moment of truth,” Dr. Kench said.

They levered out the pipe and hoisted it above a tarp. Out came a messy line of sediment and gravel and coral bits. Everyone leaned in close. No group of people in human history had ever seemed more interested in some chunks of damp sand.

Dr. Scott tried to puzzle out why the fine and rough material were jumbled together, not crisply layered as they’d hoped. Gerd Masselink, a coastal scientist at Plymouth, grinned. “Well, you know, it’s not an exact science,” he said.

. . .

On its own, coral bleaching isn’t necessarily bad for islands. When corals go white and frail, they can become infested (p. A8) by even more of the cyanobacteria that parrotfish love to munch on. The parrotfish flourish; they produce more sand.

. . .

It’s . . . less-populated islands where scientists say people can still learn to coexist with expanding and contracting shores, to adapt to nature’s give-and-take.

The issue is whether people can wait. Whether their needs for modern services, for better lives, will lead them to demand sea walls and breakwaters and land reclamation, the very things that could diminish the islands’ natural resilience. Or whether they will simply leave.

For the full story see:

Raymond Zhong, Jason Gulley and Jonathan Corum. “The Vanishing Islands That Failed to Vanish.” The New York Times (Saturday, June 29, 2024): A6-A8.

(Note: ellipses added; capitalized heading in original.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 26, 2024, and has the same title as the print version.)

The Joy of the Smell Test

If actionable knowledge can come for several sources, but we forbid action based on some of those sources, we will limit our effective action. In the case of health, unnecessary suffering and death will result. In previous entries I highlighted cases where dogs’ advanced ability to smell can diagnose and warn of human maladies more accurately, quicker, and cheaper than other methods. Dog-detectable maladies include Covid, epileptic seizures, and cancer. But the medical establishment underuses this source of knowledge because it is not viewed as scientifically respectable. (And perhaps also because those who practice scientifically respectable ways of knowing, benefit from limiting competition?) The passages quoted below sketch the story of a “hyperosmic” nurse who can smell a distinct odor that identifies those who have and who will have Parkinson’s. Note that follow-up research on this outside-the-box diagnostic method was not funded by governments or universities but by a private foundation founded and funded by Parkinson’s patients and their families and friends. Having a terrible disease sometimes leads to despair, sometimes to a sense of urgency.

(p. 30) As a boy, Les Milne carried an air of triumph about him, and an air of sorrow.  . . .  “We were very, very much in love,” Joy, now a flaxen-haired 72-year-old grandmother, told me recently. In a somewhat less conventional way, she also adored the way Les smelled, and this aroma of salt and musk, accented with a suggestion of leather from the carbolic soap he used at the pool, formed for her a lasting sense of who he was. “It was just him,” Joy said, a steadfast marker of his identity, no less distinctive than his face, his voice, his particular quality of mind.

Joy’s had always been an unusually sensitive nose, the inheritance, she believes, of her maternal line. Her grandmother was a “hyperosmic,” and she encouraged Joy, as a child, to make the most of her abilities, quizzing her on different varieties of rose, teaching her to distinguish the scent of the petals from the scent of the leaves from the scent of the pistils and stamens. Still, her grandmother did not think odor of any kind to be a polite topic of conversation, and however rich and enjoyable and dense with information the olfactory world might be, she urged her granddaughter to keep her experience of it to herself.

. . .

Les spent long hours in the surgical theater, which in Macclesfield had little in the way of ventilation, and Joy typically found that he came home smelling of anesthetics, antiseptics and blood. But he returned one August evening in 1982, shortly after his 32nd birthday, smelling of something new and distinctly unsavory, of some thick must. From then on, the odor never ceased, though neither Les nor almost anyone but his wife could detect it.  . . .

Les had lately begun to change in other ways, however, and soon the smell came to seem almost trivial. It was as if his personality had shifted. Les had rather suddenly become detached, ill-tempered, apathetic. He ceased helping out with many household chores; he snapped at his boys.

. . .

When he began referring to “the other person,” a shadow off to his side, she suspected a brain tumor. Eventually she prevailed upon him to see his doctor, who referred him to a neurologist in Manchester.

Parkinson’s disease is typically classed as a movement disorder, and its most familiar symptoms — tremor, rigidity, a slowing known as bradykinesia — are indeed motoric. But the disease’s autonomic, psychological and cognitive symptoms are no less terrible and commonly begin during the so-called prodrome, years before any changes in movement.

. . .

(p. 31) Feeling desperate, Joy eventually persuaded Les to go with her to a meeting of local Parkinson’s patients and their caregivers.

The room was half full by the time they arrived. Near the coat stand, Joy squeezed behind a man just as he was taking off his jacket and suddenly felt a twitch in her neck, as if some fight-or-flight instinct had been activated, and she raised her nostrils instinctively to the air. She often had this reaction to strong, unexpected scents. In this case, bizarrely, it was the disagreeable odor that had hung about her husband for the past 25 years. The man smelled just like him, Joy realized. So too did all the other patients. The implications struck her immediately.

For nearly all the recorded history of medicine and until only quite recently, smell was a central preoccupation. The “miasma” theory of disease, predominant until the end of the 19th century, held that illnesses of all kinds were spread by noxious odors. By a similar token, particular scents were understood to be curative or prophylactic. More than anything, however, odor was a tool of diagnosis.

The ancients of Greece and China confirmed tuberculosis by tossing a patient’s sputum onto hot coals and smelling the fumes. Typhoid fever has long been known to smell of baking bread; yellow fever smells of raw meat. The metabolic disorder phenylketonuria was discovered by way of the musty smell it leaves in urine, while fish-odor syndrome, or trimethylaminuria, is named for its scent.

. . .

(p. 33) Most diseases can be identified by methods more precise and ostensibly scientific than aroma, however, and we tend to treat odor in general as a sort of taboo. “A venerable intellectual tradition has associated olfaction with the primitive and the childish,” writes Mark Jenner, a professor of history at the University of York. Modern doctors are trained to diagnose by inspection, palpation, percussion and auscultation; “inhalation” is not on the list, and social norms would discourage it if it were.

During her time as a nurse, Joy had done it anyway, reflexively, and learned to detect the acetone breath that signaled an impending diabetic episode, the wet brown cardboard aroma of tuberculosis — “not wet white cardboard, because wet white cardboard smells completely different,” she explained — or the rancidness of leukemia. The notion that Parkinson’s might have a distinctive scent of its own had not occurred to her then, but when it did occur to her years later, it was hardly exotic.

She and Les worried that the normosmics of the world, unfamiliar with medical smells and disinclined to talk about odor in general, might not take her discovery very seriously. They searched for an open-minded scientist and after several weeks settled on Kunath, the Parkinson’s researcher at the University of Edinburgh. In 2012, Joy attended a public talk he gave. During the question-and-answer session, she stood to ask, “Do people with Parkinson’s smell different?” Kunath recalls. “I said, ‘Do you mean, Do people with Parkinson’s lose their sense of smell?’” (Smell loss is in fact a common early symptom of the disease.) “And she said: ‘No, no, no. I mean, Do they smell different?’ And I was just like, ‘Uh, no.’” Joy went home. Kunath returned to his usual work.

Six months later, however, at the urging of a colleague who had once been impressed by cancer-sniffing dogs, Kunath found Joy’s name and called her. She told him the story of Les’s new smell. “I think if she’d told me that, as he got Parkinson’s, he had a change in smell, or if it came afterwards, I probably wouldn’t have followed up any more,” Kunath told me. “But it’s this idea that it was years before.”

He called Perdita Barran, an analytical chemist, to ask what she made of Joy’s claims. Barran suspected Joy was simply smelling the usual odor of the elderly and infirm and misattributing it to Parkinson’s. “I knew, because we all know, that old people are more smelly than young people,” says Barran, who is now a professor of mass spectrometry at the University of Manchester. Still, Barran was personally acquainted with the oddities of olfaction. Following a bike accident, she had for several years experienced various bizarre distortions to her own sense of smell. The idea that Joy might be capable of experiencing odors that no one else could did not strike her as entirely outlandish.

She and Kunath ran a small pilot study in Edinburgh. Through Parkinson’s UK, they recruited 12 participants: six local Parkinson’s patients and six healthy controls. Each participant was asked to wear a freshly laundered T-shirt for 24 hours. The worn shirts were then cut in half down the center, and each half was placed in its own sealed plastic bag. Kunath oversaw the testing. Joy smelled the T-shirt halves at random and rated the intensity of their Parkinsonian odor. “She would find a positive one, and would say, ‘There — it’s right there. Can you not smell it?’” Kunath recalled. Neither he nor the graduate student assisting him could smell a thing.

Kunath unblinded the results at the end of the day. “We were on a little bit of a high,” he recalled. Not only had Joy correctly identified each sample belonging to a Parkinson’s patient, but she was also able, by smell, to match each sample half to its partner. Barran’s skepticism evaporated. Still, Joy’s record was not perfect. She had incorrectly identified one of the controls as a Parkinson’s patient. The researchers wondered if the sample had been contaminated, or if Joy’s nose had simply gotten tired. By Barran’s recollection, Kunath’s response was: “It’s fine! It’s one false positive!” Barran herself was slightly more cautious: Joy had mislabeled both halves of the man’s T-shirt.

Of more immediate interest, though, was the question of what was causing the smell in the first place. The odor seemed to be concentrated not in the armpits, as the researchers had anticipated, but at the neckline. It took them several weeks to realize that it perhaps came from sebum, the lipid-rich substance secreted by the skin. Sebum is among the least studied biological substances. “It is actually another waste disposal for our system,” Barran says. “But no one had ever thought that this was a bodily fluid we could use to find out about disease.”

Barran set out to analyze the sebum of Parkinson’s patients, hoping to identify the particular molecules responsible for the smell Joy detected: a chemical signature of the disease, one that could be detected by machine and could thus form the basis of a universal diagnostic test, a test that ultimately would not depend on Joy’s or anyone else’s nose. No one seemed to be interested in funding the work, though. There were no established protocols for working with sebum, and grant reviewers were unimpressed by the tiny pilot study. They also appeared to find the notion of studying a grandmother’s unusual olfactory abilities to be faintly ridiculous. The response was effectively, “Oh, this isn’t science — science is about measuring things in the blood,” Barran says.

Barran turned to other projects. After nearly a year, however, at a Parkinson’s event in Edinburgh, a familiar-looking man approached Kunath. He had served as one of the healthy controls in the pilot study. “You’re going to have to put me in the other category,” he said, according to Kunath. The man had recently been diagnosed with Parkinson’s. Kunath was stunned. Joy’s “misidentification” had not been an error, but rather an act of clairvoyance. She had diagnosed the man before medicine could do so.

Funding for a full study of Joy, the smell and its chemical components now came through. “We saw something in the news, and we thought, Wow, we’ve got to act on that!” says Samantha Hutten, the director of translational research at the Michael J. Fox Foundation. “The N.I.H. is not going to fund that. Who’s going to fund it if not us?”

. . .

(p. 51) Joy has enjoyed her fame, but the smell work also radicalized her, in its way, and she has a reputation for being a bit intransigent in her advocacy. The initial scientific skepticism toward her was of a piece, she thought, with what she already held to be the medical corps’s hopeless wrongheadedness about Parkinson’s disease. For Joy, as for many caregivers, the psychological aspects of the illness were by far the most difficult to manage, much less accept, and these happened to be precisely the symptoms neurologists seemed least interested in acknowledging, let alone addressing.  . . .

To Joy’s mind, still more proof of this medical obstinacy came from the discovery that she was not alone in her ability to smell Parkinson’s disease. When the research first began to attract attention in the media, Barran and Kunath received messages from around the world from people reporting that they, too, had noticed a change in the smell of their loved ones with Parkinson’s.
  . . .  But for the smell taboo, Joy thought, someone somewhere might have taken these people seriously, and the importance of the odor might have been realized decades sooner.

For the full story see:

Scott Sayare. “The Smell Test.” The New York Times Magazine (Sunday, June 16, 2024): 28-33, 51 & 53.

(Note: ellipses added; bold in original.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 3, 2024, and has the title “The Woman Who Could Smell Parkinson’s.”)