Trump Is a Change Agent Because He Can Take the Ill Will of the Stagnationists

In an earlier blog entry I pondered Charlie Munger’s sage analysis that agents of change must often be willing to take the “ill will” aimed at them from the stagnationists who benefit from stasis. The stagnationists may be corrupt, or incompetent, or simply lack the imagination or the energy to do something in a better way.

Agents of change are scarce because most of us care a lot about what other people think of us. We experience psychic stress if we are systematically stigmatized, or even just ignored. Donald Trump may be capable of making major changes because, through temperament or resolve, he has found a way to shut out the psychic stress; a way to take the ill will.

Kessler’s commentary, quoted below, was published early in the pandemic, on Feb. 10, 2020. At that point Kessler believed that Trump’s success with the economy would get Trump re-elected. But as the months of 2020 rolled on, the pandemic increasingly hurt Trump’s prospects; hence the source of the pandemic still matters a lot, and whether the vaccine was intentionally delayed a few weeks, to release it just after the election, also still matters a lot.

A key question is whether Trump still has the core “agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and originalist judges” that Kessler believed was the Trump core agenda in 2016.

I hope yes, but fear no. In 2025 are tariffs and industrial policy part of the “distraction” (aka “MacGuffin”) Kessler posits, or are they part of Trump’s core agenda?

(p. A15) Is he a disease or a cure? Like him or hate him, there’s tons of spilled ink trying to assess President Trump’s governing style. To me, the key to understanding Trumpism is remembering why he was elected.

What do I mean? Voters chose Donald Trump as an antidote to the growing inflammation caused by the (OK, deep breath . . .) prosperity-crushing, speech-inhibiting, nanny state-building, carbon-obsessing, patriarchy-bashing, implicit bias-accusing, tokey-wokey, globalist, swamp-creature governing class—all perfectly embodied by the Democrats’ 2016 nominee. On taking office, Mr. Trump proceeded to hire smart people and create a massive diversion (tweets, border walls, tariffs) as a smokescreen to let them implement an agenda of tax cuts, deregulation and originalist judges.

Those reforms have left the market free to do its magic and got the economy grooving like it’s 1999. The daily Trump hurricane—like the commotion over the Chiefs from Kansas—makes the media focus on the all-powerful wizard while ignoring the policy makers behind the curtain.

Alfred Hitchcock called this kind of distraction a “MacGuffin”—something that moves the plot along and provides motivation for the characters, but is itself unimportant, insignificant or irrelevant. It can be a kind of sleight of hand, a distraction, and Mr. Trump uses his own public persona as a MacGuffin in precisely that way. The mobs decked in “Resist” jewelry fall for it every time.

For example, Sen. Bernie Sanders used his remarks during the Senate impeachment trial to point out that the media had documented some 16,200 alleged lies by President Trump. The MacGuffin worked! Mr. Sanders and his peers are focused on the president’s words, while most voters see the real plot unfolding in America—millions of jobs and rising wages.

The president’s success comes from his ability to shrug off critics.  . . .  Rather than cower at the criticism he faces from the mobs, he probably smirks and thinks to himself, “Yeah, I don’t believe in that” and tweets away.

That’s the only reaction that can withstand today’s far left, which has become increasingly self-righteous.

For the full commentary see:

Andy Kessler. “President Donald J. MacGuffin.” The Wall Street Journal (Monday, February 10, 2020 [sic]): A17.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date February 9, 2020 [sic], and has the same title as the print version.)

Gans Showed That Urban Working-Class Enclaves, and Modern Suburban Housing Developments, Can Contain Vibrant Communities

In my Openness book I argue that, especially in America and Europe, life has generally gotten better in the last couple of hundred years.

Some critics argue, to the contrary, that modern suburban housing developments are boring, conformist locations lacking a sense of community and cultural vibrancy. They then use this argument to advocate that government urban planners adopt regulatory and subsidy policies to “infill the urban core,” i.e., force suburbanites to live downtown.

Herbert J. Gans, quoted below, refuted the critics.

(p. B11) Herbert J. Gans, an eminent sociologist who studied the communities and cultural bastions of America up close and shattered popular myths about urban and suburban life, poverty, ethnic groups and the news media, died on Monday [April 21, 2025] at his home in Manhattan. He was 97.

. . .

His findings were often surprising. For his first book, “The Urban Villagers: Groups and Class in the Life of Italian-Americans” (1962), he immersed himself in the life of Boston’s working-class West End. The area was later bulldozed for “slum clearance,” and he lamented the destruction of a vibrant community. A half-century later, the book still stood as a classic statement against indiscriminate urban renewal.

Similarly, Dr. Gans challenged conventional wisdom about postwar suburbia in “The Levittowners” (1967). For more than two years, he lived in Levittown, N.J., later renamed Willingboro, and concluded that the residents had strong social, economic and political commitments, and that notions of suburbanites as conformist, anxious, bored, cultureless, insecure social climbers were wrong.

For the full obituary, see:

Robert D. McFadden. “Herbert J. Gans, 97, Who Explored American Society Up Close, Dies.” The New York Times (Thursday, April 24, 2025): B11.

(Note: ellipsis, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the obituary was updated April 23, 2025, and has the title “Herbert J. Gans, 97, Dies; Upended Myths of Urban and Suburban Life.”)

Gans’s books mentioned in the passages quoted above, are:

Gans, ‎Herbert J. The Levittowners: Ways of Life and Politics in a New Suburban Community. New York: Columbia University Press, 1967.

Gans, ‎Herbert J. The Urban Villagers: Groups and Class in the Life of Italian-Americans. Glencoe, IL: The Free Press of Glencoe, 1962.

My book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. Openness to Creative Destruction: Sustaining Innovative Dynamism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

Stop Subsidizing Corn Growing to Reduce Corn Syrup Consumption and Make America Healthy Again

In a recent blog entry I discussed how consumption of corn syrup may increase obesity and how government subsidies to corn growing and quotas on the import of sugar, lead to increased consumption of corn syrup. In the entry below, I document brief comments by Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. on corn syrup.

(p. A15) In my speech endorsing Donald Trump, I said we need to love our kids more than we hate each other. That means coming together to address common problems, and few are more urgent than the chronic-disease crisis. Americans are becoming sicker, beset by illnesses that our medical system isn’t addressing effectively.

. . .

Mr. Trump has made reforming broken institutions a cornerstone of his political life. He has become the voice of countless Americans who have been let down by our elites. He could unite the country by making it his priority to make America healthy again. Here are some specific policy ideas:

. . .

• Reform crop subsidies. They make corn, soybeans and wheat artificially cheap, so those crops end up in many processed forms. Soybean oil in the 1990s became a major source of American calories, and high-fructose corn syrup is everywhere.

For the full commentary see:

Robert F. Kennedy Jr. “Trump Can Make America Healthy Again.” The Wall Street Journal (Friday, Sept. 6, 2024): A15.

(Note: ellipses added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date September 5, 2024, and has the same title as the print version.)

The Classical Liberal Economist’s Current Job: Minimize the Harm from Tariffs, Maximize the Benefits from Deregulation and Downsizing Government

I used to run into Richard Burkhauser at economics meetings occasionally and always enjoyed talking with him and hearing about his research. I believe Richard’s activity in the first Trump administration makes sense: if tariffs are going to be imposed, do them in a way that minimizes the damage to the economy. Although not mentioned in the article quoted below, I am sure Richard also did what he could to further the part of Trump’s agenda that was positive for he economy: reducing regulations so entrepreneurs can innovate and create jobs, and downsizing the government so taxpayers can keep more of their earnings.

(p. 1) Partway through a panel discussion at a recent economics conference in San Francisco, Jason Furman, a former adviser to President Barack Obama, turned to Kimberly Clausing, a former member of the Biden administration and the author of a book extolling the virtues of free trade.

“Everyone in this room agrees with your book,” Mr. Furman said. “No one outside of this room agrees with your book.”

The academics and policy wonks gathered in the hotel conference room laughed, but the comment captured something real: After decades of helping to shape policy on weighty matters like taxes and health insurance, economists find that their influence is at a low ebb.

. . .

(p. 6) Mr. Trump, in his first term, had few economists in top roles, and perhaps the most prominent exception — Peter Navarro, a Harvard-trained economist who was an adviser on trade policy — held skeptical views on trade, particularly with China, that put him far outside the economic mainstream. (In a 2016 survey of academic economists, not a single respondent said putting tariffs on China to encourage domestic production would be a good idea.)

Economists who held more mainstream views had limited influence. Richard Burkhauser, a Cornell University professor who served on Mr. Trump’s Council of Economic Advisers, said he and his colleagues quickly understood that there was little point in trying to talk Mr. Trump out of imposing tariffs.

“The most forlorn economists at the C.E.A. specialized in trade,” he said. If they had tried to fight tariffs, he said, “that would have been the last meeting we were at.”

Instead, Mr. Burkhauser said, economists focused on a different question: If the administration was going to impose tariffs, how could it do them in the least painful way possible?

For the full story see:

Ben Casselman. “Economists See Influence Wane in Policy Circles.” The New York Times, SundayBusiness Section (Sun., January 12, 2025): 1 & 6.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the story has the date Jan. 10, 2024, and has the title “Economists Are in the Wilderness. Can They Find a Way Back to Influence?”)

Plenty in Science Still “Just Doesn’t Make Any Sense”

In my Openness book, I argue against those who see a future of inevitable stagnation. One argument for inevitable stagnation says that entrepreneurs build their innovations on science and we have run out of new knowledge to learn in science.

But whenever we keep our eyes open and observe more closely, or in new areas, we see what we cannot yet explain. The passages quoted below give another example. So we still have a lot to learn in science.

(Of course I also point out in the book that much entrepreneurial innovation is not tied to current advances in science–and is done by entrepreneurs who do not know, or who do not hold in high esteem, the current conclusions of mainstream scientists.)

(p. A14) On Dec. 24 [2024], NASA’s Parker Solar Probe swooped closer than it ever had before to the sun, just a few million miles above its blazing hot surface.

The team behind the mission waited nervously, trusting that the probe would survive the encounter. Then, a few minutes shy of midnight on Thursday [Dec. 2?, 2024], Parker phoned home.

. . .

. . ., there was some fear that the probe might not survive this time. Parker’s heat shield is designed so that the front of the vehicle can withstand facing the blistering heat of the sun’s outer atmosphere, which reaches millions of degrees, while the back, which contains the probe’s sensitive instruments, sits at a comfortable 85 degrees Fahrenheit.

“Literally one side is at a temperature that is unfathomable,” Joseph Westlake, the director of heliophysics at NASA, said. “And the back of it is a hot, sunny day.”

. . .

Parker’s data will . . . help scientists understand how the sun’s outer atmosphere, known as the corona, can be hundreds of times hotter than the solar surface below it.

“It’s like if you were standing next to a bonfire and you took a couple of steps back, and all of a sudden it got hotter,” Dr. Westlake said. “It just doesn’t make any sense.”

For the full story see:

Katrina Miller. “After Silence, Solar Probe Signals Earth of Survival.” The New York Times (Sat., December 28, 2024): A14.

(Note: ellipses, bracketed year, and bracketed date, added.)

(Note: the online version of the story was updated Dec. 30, 2024, and has the title “After Days of Silence, NASA’s Parker Solar Probe Phones Home.”)

My book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. Openness to Creative Destruction: Sustaining Innovative Dynamism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

Medieval English Gentry Did Not Routinely Dine on Meat

In my Openness book, I argue that the distant past was not a lost Golden Age that we should pine for.

Based on novels and TV costume dramas, we suppose the rich gentry in medieval England routinely dined on meat. But bioarcheologists have analyzed the bones of over 2,000 persons for whom social class can be inferred, based on what was buried with the bones. The conclusion was that meat was an occasional luxury for both poor and rich.

This provides one more bit of evidence that, compared with the present, the past was not a Golden Age even for the rich.

Source:

Maria Cramer. “Mutton? Kings of Yore Probably Ate More Greens.” The New York Times, First Section (Sun., May 1, 2022 [sic]): 13.

(Note: the online version of the article was updated May 2, 2022 [sic], and has the title “Anglo-Saxon Kings Made Sure to Eat Their Vegetables, Study Shows.”)

The published academic paper summarized by Maria Cramer in The New York Times is:

Leggett, Sam, and Tom Lambert. “Food and Power in Early Medieval England: A Lack of (Isotopic) Enrichment.” Anglo-Saxon England 49 (2022): 155-96.

My book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. Openness to Creative Destruction: Sustaining Innovative Dynamism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

Not Every Fluoride Worry Is Anti-Science Misinformation

Emily Oster is an economist who believes that ordinary citizens are not uniformly stupid and ill-informed. Maybe they even have rights. So she suggests the public health authorities stop condescending and shouting commands and start offering the public nuanced information about varying levels of certainty and risk.

(p. 4) Robert F. Kennedy Jr. said this month that the new Trump administration would recommend removing fluoride from public water supplies. The suggestion that fluoride was unsafe was immediately criticized by many public health experts as anti-science misinformation.

But there’s a real danger to painting everyone with concerns about fluoride as a conspiracy theorist. It’s not that we should remove fluoride from tap water (we shouldn’t), but fluoride is a complex topic, and glossing over that complexity — as public health experts and agencies often do — leaves people understandably skeptical.

Public health agencies typically tell people what to do and what not to do, but they don’t regularly explain why — or why people might hear something different from others. They also often fail to prioritize. In the end, advice for a range of topics is delivered with the same level of confidence and, seemingly, the same level of urgency. The problem is that when people find one piece of guidance is overstated, they may begin to distrust everything.

. . .

Deservedly or not, public health authorities lost a lot of trust, especially during the pandemic, and they have struggled to get it back. This has left an opening for others. The reaction from public health officials often seems to be to yell the same thing, only more loudly. This isn’t working.

For the full commentary see:

Emily Oster. “How to Talk About Fluoride, Vaccines and Raw Milk.” The New York Times, SundayOpinion Section (Sun., November 17, 2024): 4.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Nov. 13, 2024, and has the title “There’s a Better Way to Talk About Fluoride, Vaccines and Raw Milk.”)

Medical Entrepreneur Fired for Nimbly Pivoting to Get Job Done

Back in early 2021, the Moderna vaccine was not yet widely available. Protocols mandated who could get the scarce shots, prioritizing health care workers, senior citizens, and those with severe diseases. Each vial contained enough for 10 doses, but the doses had to be given with six hours, before the vaccine spoiled. On Dec. 29 Dr. Hasan Gokal, a Pakistani immigrant, worked at the county’s first vaccination event, set up for health care workers. Near the end of the scheduled event a health care worker showed up and a nurse punctured a new vial to give the worker the shot.

Now, what to do with the remaining nine doses? He got on the phone and drove around seeking and finding several senior citizens who wanted the vaccine. Exhausted with a half-hour until the vaccine expired, he gave the final dose to his wife, who had pulmonary sarcoidosis, which was indicated in the protocols as a qualification for the vaccine.

Dr. Gokal’s supervisor and the director of human resources then fired Dr. Gokal:

The officials maintained that he had violated protocol and should have returned the remaining doses to the office or thrown them away, the doctor recalled. He also said that one of the officials startled him by questioning the lack of “equity” among those he had vaccinated.

“Are you suggesting that there were too many Indian names in that group?” Dr. Gokal said he asked.

Exactly, he said he was told. (Barry 2021, p. A5)

A couple of weeks later, the county district attorney charged Dr. Gokal with theft of doses of the vaccine.

Dr. Gokal acted as a medical entrepreneur. His job was to save lives by administering the vaccine. He nimbly pivoted in a difficult situation. For that he was punished–fired and charged with a crime.

The growing promulgation and enforcement of protocols limit physicians from acting as mission-oriented entrepreneurs. They are limited in their use of judgement based on their own experiences, they are limited in innovating, and sometimes they are even limited in using all of a scarce vaccine. These limits may be part of the reason that so many physicians today experience frustration and burn-out.

[As of the time of the writing of the NYT article cited below, Dr. Gokal remained fired from his job, and still was in legal jeopardy.]

My source for the facts of Dr. Gokal’s case, is the NYT article:

Dan Barry. “Racing the Clock, a Doctor Gave Out the Vaccine.” The New York Times (Thurs., February 11, 2021 [sic]): A1 & A5.

(Note: the online version of the NYT article was updated June 23, 2023 [sic], and has the title “The Vaccine Had to Be Used. He Used It. He Was Fired.”)

NBER Study Asserts That High-Risk Medicare Beneficiaries Are Clueless

I have looked at the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) paper mentioned below, and suspect (and hope) that its key findings are wrong. I do not believe that people are always rational and well-informed. But I do believe that people have incentives to be rational and well-informed, especially on crucial issues related to their health.

The NBER paper says that given a modest increase in the price of a crucial drug (e.g., a statin), high-risk patients (e.g., with severe arteriosclerosis) will often stop taking the crucial drug, being “unaware of these risks.” I suspect that the policy conclusion that many will draw from the NBER paper is: don’t raise Medicare drug prices.

If the authors are right that high-risk Medicare beneficiaries are clueless, an alternative policy conclusion is: give the beneficiaries a clue.

(p. 7) The high cost of drugs can force some seniors to make difficult choices between paying for medications or other household expenses.

A . . . study by the National Bureau of Economic Research found that when Medicare beneficiaries’ out-of-pocket drug costs jump, there is a significant drop in the number of patients who fill prescriptions and an increase in mortality.

For the full commentary see:

Mark Miller. “Steps for Coping With Medicare’s Rising Costs.” The New York Times, SundayBusiness Section (Sun., December 26, 2021 [sic]): 7.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Dec. 22, 2021 [sic], and has the title “How to Cope With Medicare’s Rising Costs.”)

A revised version of the National Bureau of Economic Research paper mentioned above is:

Chandra, Amitabh, Evan Flack, and Ziad Obermeyer. “The Health Costs of Cost-Sharing.” National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #28439, Feb. 2024.

Gig Work Enables Free Agent Entrepreneurship

In my Openness book, I distinguish between free agent entrepreneurs and innovative entrepreneurs. Free agent entrepreneurs are there own boss, doing what has been done before. Innovative entrepreneurs are their own boss, doing what is new. Of course the distinction is not sharp–a continuum.

Recent research, summarized in the WSJ, suggests that gig work can ease entry into free agent entrepreneurship. Gig work is flexible–the gig worker has time when they need it, to work on their entrepreneurial venture. Gig work also can generate capital and give experience in self-management.

A higher percent of gig workers become entrepreneurs than similar employed workers, and they do so, on average, at a slightly younger age.

Those who want to regulate gig work, and thereby make it less common, should remember how gig work benefits aspiring entrepreneus.

The WSJ article mentioned above is:

Lisa Ward. “Gig Workers Show More Enterprise, Study Finds.” The Wall Street Journal (Thurs., May 8, 2025): A11.

(Note: the online version of the WSJ article has the date May 5, 2025, and has the title “Want to Start a Business? Maybe Begin by Being a Gig Worker.”)

The academic working paper summarized in the WSJ article is:

Denes, Matthew R., Spyridon Lagaras, and Margarita Tsoutsoura. “Entrepreneurship and the Gig Economy: Evidence from U.S. Tax Returns.” In National Bureau of Economic Research Working Paper #33347, Jan. 2025.

My book mentioned in my initial comments is:

Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. Openness to Creative Destruction: Sustaining Innovative Dynamism. New York: Oxford University Press, 2019.

If Switzerland Is “Capitalist to Its Core,” Where Are Its Breakthrough Innovations?

If Switzerland is the premier capitalist country in the world, as Ruchir Sharma argues in the puzzling passages quoted below, what breakthrough innovations has it nurtured in the last half century? I can think of none. (Swatch may have been successful, but was it a breakthrough?) If I am right, what is Switzerland missing?

(p. 5) Capitalist to its core, Switzerland imposes lighter taxes on individuals, consumers and corporations than the Scandinavian countries do. In 2018 its top income tax rate was the lowest in Western Europe at 36 percent, well below the Scandinavian average of 52 percent. Government spending amounts to a third of gross domestic product, compared with half in Scandinavia. And Switzerland is more open to trade, with a share of global exports around double that of any Scandinavian economy.

Streamlined government and open borders have helped make this landlocked, mountainous country an unlikely incubator of globally competitive companies. To build wealth, a country needs to make rich things, and an M.I.T. ranking of nations by the complexity of the products they export places Switzerland second behind Japan, well ahead of the Scandinavian countries, whose average rank is 15.

. . .

Die-hard admirers of Scandinavian socialism overlook the change of heart in countries such as Sweden, where heavy government spending led to the financial crises of the 1990s. Sweden responded by cutting the top income tax rate from nearly 90 percent to as low as 50 percent. Public spending fell from near 70 percent of G.D.P. to 50 percent. Growth revived, as the largest Scandinavian economy started to look more like Switzerland, streamlining government and leaving business more room to grow.

For the full commentary see:

Ruchir Sharma. “The Happy, Healthy Capitalists of Switzerland.” The New York Times, SundayReview Section (Sun., November 3, 2019 [sic]): 5.

(Note: ellipsis added.)

(Note: the online version of the commentary has the date Nov. 2, 2019 [sic], and has the same title as the print version.)