(p. A4) As more baby boomers leave the job market, the participation rate should continue to decline–a group of economists at the Federal Reserve projected in 2006 that it would fall to 62.5% by 2015. While that suggests the economy won’t need to create as many jobs to bring down the unemployment rate, said Barclays Capital economist Dean Maki, the downside is that it won’t have as large a work force to power it along and pay for the needs of an aging population.
“If you have a greater fraction of the population not working, that will make it harder to pay for costs that will be ballooning,” he said.
For the full story, see:
JUSTIN LAHART. “Aging Population Eases Jobless Rate.” The Wall Street Journal (Sat., November 5, 2011): A4.
Inexplicable smaller denominator ….
You judge…
Saturation Macroeconomics: Gobbledy-Gook or the Real Deal?
Time for a new mathematical model, a new paradigm, for macroeconomics?
Is there a patterned science representing the time dependent evolution of macroeconomics?
The last paragraph of the Economic Fractalist main page http://www.economicfractalist.com/ ….
The ideal growth fractal time sequence is X, 2.5X, 2X and 1.5-1.6X. The first two cycles include a saturation transitional point and decay process in the terminal portion of the cycles. A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle. After the nonlinear gap drop, the third cycle begins. This means that the second cycle can last anywhere in length from 2x to 2.5x. The third cycle 2X is primarily a growth cycle with a lower saturation point and decay process followed by a higher saturation point. The last 1.5-1.6X cycle is primarily a decay cycle interrupted with a mid area growth period. Near ideal fractal cycles can be seen in the trading valuations of many commodities and individual stocks. Most of the cycles are caricatures of the ideal and conform to Gompertz mathematical type saturation and decay curves.
For the Wilshire, the US composite equity index March 09 to October 2011 was a 4 phased Lammert growth and decay fractal series..
x/2.5x/2x/1.5x :: 5/13/10/7 months. That’s an empirical real system observation – available to all – of the time dependent workings of the macroeconomic system.
2005 was the description, the hypothesis – March 2009 to October 2011 was the empirical asset valuation evolution…
The flash crash on 6 May 2010 ….. does that not meet second fractal criteria?
“A sudden nonlinear drop in the last 0.5x time period of the 2.5X is the hallmark of a second cycle and characterizes this most recognizable cycle.”
Maybe this is all occurring by chance alone …. Likely…. Very very very likely ….not.