(p. C4) In the 1960s, some experts feared an exponentially accelerating population explosion, and in 1969, the State Department envisaged 7.5 billion people by the year 2000. In 1994, the United Nations’ medium estimate expected the seven-billion milestone to arrive around 2009. Compared with most population forecasts made in the past half century, the world keeps undershooting.
The growth rate of world population has halved since the ’60s and is now expected to hit zero around 2070, with population around 10 billion, though some news outlets prefer to focus on the U.N.’s “high” estimate that it “could” reach 15 billion. The truth is, nobody can know, but if it’s below 10 billion in 2100, we will have only increased in numbers by 1.5 times in the 21st century, compared with a fourfold increase in the 20th.
For the full commentary, see:
MATT RIDLEY. “MIND & MATTER; Who’s Afraid of Seven Billion People?” The Wall Street Journal (Sat., October 29, 2011): C4.