(p. D3) Since 1900, average life expectancy around the globe has more than doubled, thanks to better public health, sanitation and food supplies. But a new study of long-lived Italians indicates that we have yet to reach the upper bound of human longevity.
“If there’s a fixed biological limit, we are not close to it,” said Elisabetta Barbi, a demographer at the University of Rome. Dr. Barbi and her colleagues published their research Thursday [sic] in the journal Science.
. . .
Dr. Barbi and her colleagues combed through Italy’s records to find every citizen who had reached the age of 105 between 2009 and 2015. To validate their ages, the researchers tracked down their birth certificates.
The team ended up with a database of 3,836 elderly Italians. The researchers tracked down death certificates for those who died in the study period and determined the rate at which various age groups were dying.
It’s long been known that the death rate starts out somewhat high in infancy and falls during the early years of life. It climbs again among people in their thirties, finally skyrocketing among those in their seventies and eighties.
. . .
Among extremely old Italians, they discovered, the death rate stops rising — the curve abruptly flattens into a plateau.
The researchers also found that people who were born in later years have a slightly lower mortality rate when they reach 105.
“The plateau is sinking over time,” said Kenneth W. Wachter, a demographer at the University of California, Berkeley, who co-authored the new study. “Improvements in mortality extend even to these extreme ages.”
“We’re not approaching any maximum life span for humans yet,” he added.
For the full story, see:
Zimmer, Carl. “What Is the Limit of Our Life Span?” The New York Times (Tuesday, July 3, 2018): D3.
(Note: ellipses added.)
(Note: the online version of the story has the date June 28, 2018, and has the title “How Long Can We Live? The Limit Hasn’t Been Reached, Study Finds.” The NYT article says the Science article was published on “Thursday,” but the citation for it that I found says it was published on Fri., June 29, 2018.)
The Science article mentioned above, is:
Barbi, Elisabetta, Francesco Lagona, Marco Marsili, James W. Vaupel, and Kenneth W. Wachter. “The Plateau of Human Mortality: Demography of Longevity Pioneers.” Science 360, no. 6396 (June 29, 2018): 1459-61.