Government – Page 127 – artdiamondblog.com

Tears Flow for Delta Queen “All Because of a Stupid Law”

Source: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.

(p. A16) CINCINNATI — For more than a year now, fans of the Delta Queen, America’s last original paddle-wheeled, steam-driven, overnight passenger boat, have done everything they could to keep it plying the country’s rivers.

They have written letters, signed petitions and enlisted stars like the actor Hal Holbrook (who has played Mark Twain) to support their cause. They even tried to shame Congress into granting another exemption from a federal law that would normally ban the Delta Queen from operating because it is largely made of wood.
But as it pulled away from her dock here into the Ohio River on Tuesday night, tears flowed among passengers, crew members and some of the hundreds of onlookers.
That was because, to date, no exemption has been granted and the current exemption expires at the end of October. As a result, the 10-day cruise to Memphis could well be the Delta Queen’s last commercial voyage.
. . .
“We’re just here to say goodbye,” said Dick Schroeder, 72, a lifelong Cincinnati resident who came to watch this potential last departure with his wife, Mary, and daughter, Patricia Fanning.
“I just don’t know why it has to go, all because of a stupid law,” Mr. Schroeder said.

For the full story, see:
SEAN D. HAMILL. ” Paddle-Wheeler’s Fans Seek a Reprieve.” The New York Times (Weds., October 22, 2008): A16.
(Note: ellipsis added.)

“We Will Stay a Laissez-Faire Economy”

“Andrus Ansip, leader of Estonia, an ex-Soviet Republic.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.

An earlier entry suggested that Estonian Prime Minister Andrus Ansip’s support for Steve Forbes’ flat tax, had helped Estonia achieve a high rate of growth.
Apparently there is some sentiment in Estonia to stay the course:

(p. B6) TALLINN, Estonia — For nearly two decades, Estonia embraced capitalism with such gusto that it seemed to be channeling the laissez-faire philosophy of Milton Friedman. From its policies meant to attract foreign investors to its flat tax and freewheeling business culture, it stood out as the former Soviet republic most adept at turning post-Communist chaos into a thriving market economy.
Now Estonians, and some of their Baltic neighbors, are slogging through their first serious economic downturn since liberation from the Soviet grip in the early 1990s.
. . .
Whatever happens, government officials say there will be no betrayal of Friedman’s philosophy. “We will stay a laissez-faire economy,” said Juhan Parts, Estonia’s minister of the economy.
. . .
“I’m an optimist,” said Marje Josing, director of the Estonian Institute for Economic Research. “Fifteen years ago things looked bad, but they managed. A little real-life pressure won’t hurt.”
Indeed, so far the downturn has done little to discourage Estonia’s ambitious entrepreneurs. If anything, it has made them look more avidly elsewhere for growth.
“Estonia may be a small country,” Tarmo Prikk, chief executive of Thulema, an office furniture maker, said with a laugh. “But my ego is bigger.”

For the full story, see:
CARTER DOUGHERTY. “Estonia’s Let-It-Be Economy Is Rattled by Worldwide Distress.” The New York Times (Fri., October 10, 2008): B6.
(Note: ellipses added.)

Obama’s Tax Policies Would Be “a Significant Step Towards” Another “Great Depression”

Lee Ohanian is the co-author of a much-cited article in the highly-ranked Journal of Political Economy on the economics of the Great Depression. Below is a paragraph from his recent analysis of our current situation:

(p. A17) I am particularly concerned about bad policies because significantly higher taxes have been proposed by Barack Obama. His plan would raise the marginal tax rate on the most productive workers more than 10 percentage points — an increase that would bring us near Western European levels. His plan would also raise capital income taxes, taxing capital gains and dividends at 20%, compared to a 15% rate under Sen. John McCain’s plan. A five percentage-point difference might strike you as small, but it is not. I have calculated that a five percentage-point difference in overall capital income taxation over the long haul is equal to a difference in the nation’s capital stock of about 18%. This means a 6% difference in GDP and a 6% difference in the average wage rate. This means that real GDP and the average wage would fall, gradually but persistently declining about 6% after 25 years. That’s not quite a Great Depression, but a significant step towards one.

For the full commentary, see:
LEE E. OHANIAN. “Good Policies Can Save the Economy; Why we need lower tax rates and more skilled immigrants.” The Wall Street Journal (Weds., OCTOBER 8, 2008): A17.

The academic article co-authored by Ohanian is:
Cole, Harold L., and Lee E. Ohanian. “New Deal Policies and the Persistence of the Great Depression: A General Equilibrium Analysis.” Journal of Political Economy 112, no. 4 (August 2004): 779-816.

Obama Plans Big Increases in Many Taxes

Source of table: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.

(p. A13) When it comes to taxes, the difference between Barack Obama and John McCain is arguably as wide as it’s been in a presidential race since Ronald Reagan and Walter Mondale battled in 1984. Sen. Obama is proposing to raise taxes more than any recent candidate, while Sen. McCain wants to cut them substantially.
. . .
In sum, Mr. Obama is proposing to use the tax code to substantially redistribute income — raising tax rates on a minority of taxpayers to finance tax credits and direct income supplements to millions of others. How much revenue his higher rates would raise depends on how much less those high-earners would work, or how much they would change their practices to shelter their income from those higher rates.
By contrast, Mr. McCain is proposing some kind of tax reduction for most Americans who pay taxes. He says he would finance those cuts by reducing the rate of growth in federal spending.

For the full commentary, see:
Brian M. Carney. “The Election Choice: Taxes.” The Wall Street Journal (Sat., OCTOBER 25, 2008): A13.
(Note: ellipsis added.)

Law Professor Says Palin Was Ridiculed for Being Right on VP Duties

University of Tennessee law professor Glenn Harlan Reynolds agrees with Sarah Palin’s views on the constitutional role of the Vice President:

(p. A23) The presidential campaign has taken a detour into a dispute over the constitutional status of the vice presidency. It all started when Sarah Palin asserted in her debate with Joe Biden that the vice president should play an important role in the legislative branch.
Ms. Palin has been roundly mocked for her claim. But she was probably right.
. . .
The Constitution and the best interests of the country suggest that the best place for the vice president is in the Senate.

For the full commentary, see:
GLENN HARLAN REYNOLDS. “Where Does the Vice President Belong? Palin Was Right. The Office is Legislative.” The New York Times (Mon., October 27, 2008): A23.
(Note: ellipsis added.)

Fewer Jobs Under Obama’s High-Cost Health Plan

“Dave Ratner, owner of four pet stores in Western Massachusetts, is worried about being able to pay into a state health benefits plan.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the NYT article quoted and cited below.

(p. A16) AGAWAM, Mass. — Dave Ratner, owner of Dave’s Soda and Pet City, is pretty sure he is about to get “whacked” by the new state law that requires employers to contribute to health care benefits for their workers or pay a $295-per-employee penalty. In order to avoid thousands of dollars in fines, Mr. Ratner is considering not adding part-time workers at his four pet supply stores in Western Massachusetts.

But the penalty in Massachusetts is picayune compared with what some health experts believe Senator Barack Obama, the Democratic presidential nominee, might impose as part of his plan to provide affordable coverage for the uninsured. Though Mr. Obama has not released details, economists believe he might require large and medium companies to contribute as much as 6 percent of their payrolls.
That, Mr. Ratner said, would be catastrophic to a low-margin business like his, which has 90 employees, 29 of them full-time workers who are offered health benefits.
“To all of a sudden whack 6 to 7 percent of payroll costs, forget it,” he said. “If they do that, prices go up and employment goes down because nobody can absorb that.”

For the full story, see:

KEVIN SACK. “Businesses Wary of Details in Obama Health Plan.” The New York Times (Mon., October 27, 2008): A16.

Democratic Housing Secretary Cisneros Aided Irresponsible House Buying

“Henry G. Cisneros, secretary of housing and urban development, speaking to President Bill Clinton on Dec. 19, 1994, in Washington.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the 2006 NYT article cited below.

(p. 1) SAN ANTONIO — A grandson of Mexican immigrants and a former mayor of this town, Henry G. Cisneros has spent years trying to make the dream of homeownership come true for low-income families.

As the Clinton administration’s top housing official in the mid-1990s, Mr. Cisneros loosened mortgage restrictions so first-time buyers could qualify for loans they could never get before.
Then, capitalizing on a housing expansion he helped unleash, he joined the boards of a major builder, KB Home, and the largest mortgage lender in the nation, Countrywide Financial — two companies that rode the housing boom, drawing criticism along the way for abusive business practices.
And Mr. Cisneros became a developer himself. The Lago Vista development here in his hometown once stood as a testament to his life’s work.
Joining with KB, he built 428 homes for low-income buyers in what was a neglected, industrial neighborhood. He often made the trip from downtown to ask residents if they were happy.
“People bought here because of Cisneros,” says Celia Morales, a Lago Vista resident. “There was a feeling of, ‘He’s got our back.’ ”
But Mr. Cisneros rarely comes around anymore. Lago Vista, like many communities born in the housing boom, is now under stress. Scores of homes have been foreclosed, including one in five over the last six years on the community’s longest street, Sunbend Falls, according to property records.
While Mr. Cisneros says he remains proud of his work, he has misgivings over what his passion has wrought. He insists that the worst problems developed only after “bad actors” hijacked his good intentions but acknowledges that “people came to homeownership who should not have been homeowners.”

For the full story, see:
DAVID STREITFELD and GRETCHEN MORGENSON. “The Reckoning; Man in the Middle; Building Flawed American Dreams; Helping Low-Income Families Buy Homes and Watching the Failures.” The New York Times, Section 1 (Sun., October 19, 2008): 1 & 23.

“THE DEVELOPER Henry Cisneros in his office in San Antonio with Sylvia Arce-Garcia, an executive assistant. He is the head of CityView, a developer.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the 2008 NYT article cited above.

“Ill-Conceived Regulation Poisoned the System”

Source of formula title and of formula: online version of the WSJ commentary quoted and cited below.

(p. A17) Here’s how ill-conceived regulation poisoned the system. Until recently, bank CEOs and regulators slept well at night thanks to a financial model developed in the 1990s called “value at risk” or VaR. It assesses historical variances and covariances among different securities, informing financial institutions of the risks they’re taking. By assessing risk factors across all securities, VaR can compare historical levels of risk for given portfolios, usually up to a 99% probability that banks would not lose more than a certain amount of money. In normal times, banks compare the VaR worst case with their capital to make sure their reserves can cover losses.

But VaR can’t account for extreme unprecedented events — the collapse of Barings in 1995 due to a rogue trader in Singapore, or today’s government-mandated bad mortgages bundled into securities that are hard to value and unwind. The “1% likely” happened. And because the 1% literally didn’t compute, there was no estimate of the stunning losses that have occurred.
Yale mathematician Benoit Mandelbrot pointed out the shortcomings of the VaR model in his “The (Mis)behavior of Markets,” published in 2004. He noted that bell curves work for, say, disparities in the height of people. In markets, instead of flat tails of rare events at either end of the bell curve, there are “fat tails” of huge upsides and huge downsides. Markets are more complex than the neat shape of bell curves.
Last year’s bestselling nonfiction book had a similar theme. In “The Black Swan,” former trader Nassim Nicholas Taleb pointed out that extreme outcomes are actually common, warning that financial engineers — “scientists,” as he calls them — ignore these unlikely outcomes at their peril. But today’s credit panic was not entirely unpredictable. Mr. Taleb was prescient in writing, “The government-sponsored institution Fannie Mae, when I look at their risks, seems to be sitting on a barrel of dynamite, vulnerable to the slightest hiccup. But not to worry: Their large staffs of scientists deemed these events ‘unlikely.'”

For the full commentary, see:
L. GORDON CROVITZ. “The 1% Panic.” The Wall Street Journal (Mon., OCTOBER 13, 2008): A17.
(Note: the online version of the article had the following added subtitle: “Our financial models were only meant to work 99% of the time.”)

For the Taleb book mentioned in the commentary, see:
Taleb, Nassim Nicholas. The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable. New York: Random House, 2007.

For an insightful review of the Taleb book, see:
Diamond, Arthur M., Jr. “Review of the Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable.” Journal of Scientific Exploration 22, no. 3 (2008): 419-22.

Dem’s Acorn Group Registers Mickey Mouse to Vote for Obama

“Suspicious voter registration applications in recent months include this one for Mickey Mouse, of Orlando, Fla.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.

(p. A13) WASHINGTON — Thousands of suspicious voter registrations collected by the housing-advocacy group known as Acorn have become a rallying point for Republicans, who claim left-leaning activists may be trying to rig votes in the 2008 elections.

Many of the potentially faulty registrations were flagged to election officials as a result of the group’s own internal controls.
Democrats say the Republicans are attempting to whip up fear as a way of discouraging some newly registered voters from going to the polls. If past elections are an indication, such claims also may serve as a way to set up potential legal challenges should close election results produce disputed counts and recounts.
Faulty registrations in recent months include those in the names of Mickey Mouse in Florida, Batman in New Mexico and Dallas Cowboys football players in Nevada. State and federal authorities have opened investigations in about a dozen states; as many as 16,000 registrations in Pennsylvania are under suspicion. The Michigan attorney general’s office Tuesday said it arrested and filed felony charges against a former Acorn canvasser for allegedly forging six voter applications.

For the full story, see:
EVAN PEREZ. “Probes Focus on Advocacy Group’s Voter Registration.” The Wall Street Journal (Weds., OCTOBER 15, 2008): A13.

Lawyer for Obama’s Acorn Group Is Concerned About Group’s Embezzlement and Possible Violations of Federal Laws

(p. A15) An internal report by a lawyer for the community organizing group Acorn raises questions about whether the web of relationships among its 174 affiliates may have led to violations of federal laws.

The group, formally known as the Association of Community Organizations for Reform Now, has been in the news over accusations that it is involved in voter registration fraud, charges it says are overblown and politically motivated.
Republicans have tried to make an issue of Senator Barack Obama’s ties to the group, which he represented in a lawsuit in 1995. The Obama campaign has denied any connection with Acorn’s voter registration drives.
The June 18 report, written by Elizabeth Kingsley, a Washington lawyer, spells out her concerns about potentially improper use of charitable dollars for political purposes; money transfers among the affiliates; and potential conflicts created by employees working for multiple affiliates, among other things.
It also offers a different account of the embezzlement of almost $1 million by the brother of Acorn’s founder, Wade Rathke, than the one the organization gave in July, when word of the theft became public.
“A full analysis of potential liability will require consultation with a knowledgeable white-collar criminal attorney,” Ms. Kingsley wrote of the embezzlement, which occurred in 2000 but was not disclosed until this summer.

For the full story, see:
STEPHANIE STROM. “Acorn Report Raises Issues of Legality.” The New York Times (Weds., October 22, 2008): A15.

Growing the Nanny State: California Senate Bans Helium Balloons

“Don Caldwell, who made an effigy of California state Sen. Jack Scott in protest of his proposed balloon ban, with his wife, Laura.” Source of caption and photo: online version of the WSJ article quoted and cited below.

(p. A1) California state Sen. Jack Scott says he didn’t intend to “be a party pooper.” It’s just that helium-filled foil balloons — like those found at hospital gift shops and office parties — are dangerous. They float into electric lines and cause power outages, more than 800 in California last year, utilities say.

He drafted a bill to ban foil balloons; it sailed through the state Senate and now awaits a vote in the Assembly.
He didn’t expect the issue to blow up the way it did.
Last month, at a pro-balloon rally in a Pasadena park, protesters cheered as a group of children pounced on an effigy of Mr. Scott — made entirely of balloons.
“There’s a leg, get that leg!” shouted John Kobylt, a radio talk-show host who broadcast the protest live. “Look what’s left of him!” he said, holding up a sagging cluster of punctured latex. “That’s what happens when you ban our balloons.”
Wedding planners, party organizers and balloon artists all rallied to the cause. The industry body, the Balloon Council, set up a Web site — www.savetheballoons.com — that urges people to contact their state representatives. Members began a grass-roots campaign to garner support.
“My first reaction to this was, ‘You’ve got to be kidding. Is this a joke?'” recalled Barry Broad, the lobbyist they hired to spearhead the pro-balloon effort. “Balloons (p. A16) and ice-cream cones are associated with the lighthearted parts of life, and now suddenly they have this evil-twin side?”

For the full story, see:
AMY KAUFMAN. “California Targets New Menace: Helium-Filled Foil Balloons; State Senate Sees Danger and Cracks Down, But Party Planners Fight Back; the $100 Fine.” The Wall Street Journal (Tues., July 15, 2008): A1 & A16.