Added Evidence for Weidenbaum’s ‘Birth Dearth’

 

BirthDearthBK.gif Source of book image:  http://www.aei.org/books/bookID.497,filter.all/book_detail.asp

 

Ben Wattenberg had already been predicting a world population decline for years, when he published The Birth Dearth in 1987.  Back then, scepticism was widespread.  Governments and philanthropists spent billions promoting birth control to restrain population growth.  Many were still convinced of the wisdom of Isaac Ehrlich, darling of the environmentalist enemies of economic growth, who had predicted disaster in his Population Bomb.

(Note that the plausibility of many environmentalist disaster scenerios is based on the assumption of continuous population growth.) 

The current decline in birth rates is not a total puzzle.  Nobel-prize winner Gary Becker long-ago claimed that quality of children is what economists call a ‘normal’ good, which means that families invest more in quality as their incomes rise.  As families invest more in quality, they invest less in quantity.

Whatever the reasons, the evidence continues to accumulate that Wattenberg was right:

 

After a long decline, birthrates in European countries have reached a historic low, as potential parents increasingly opt for few or no children.  European women, better educated and integrated into the labor market than ever before, say there is no time for motherhood and that children are too expensive anyway.

The result is a continent of lopsided societies where the number of elderly increasingly exceeds the number of young — a demographic pattern that is straining pension plans and depleting the work force in many countries.

 

For the full story, see:

ELISABETH ROSENTHAL.  "European Union’s Plunging Birthrates Spread Eastward."  The New York Times   (Mon., September 4, 2006):  A3.

 

 EuropeanBirthratesGraph.gif  Source of graphic:  online version of the NYT article cited above.

 

Salt Lake Mayor Violates “Ridiculous” Zoning Law

Salt Lake City Mayor Rocky Anderson, whose "xeriscape" yard violates a Salt Lake City zoning ordinance.  Source of photo:  scan from a paper copy of the NYT article cited below.

 

SALT LAKE CITY, Aug. 21 — Covered as it is by red bark and dotted with ornamental grasses and purple sage shrubs, the front yard of Salt Lake City’s mayor stands out in contrast against the other, uniformly green lawns on the tree-lined street.

Not only is Mayor Rocky Anderson’s yard distinctive, though.  It is also illegal, one of hundreds of drought-friendly yards and gardens here that are in violation of zoning ordinances.

In light of a five-year drought that meteorologists say ended last year, Mr. Anderson is one of a growing number of homeowners in desert cities across the West who have traded in their manicured lawns and colorful flower beds for ground cover and gardens that require little water.

In Salt Lake City, though, all front yards must be completely covered with flat green grass, which needs to be watered often to keep it from turning brown and strawlike.  Although the zoning ordinance is rarely enforced, some Salt Lake City leaders — including the mayor — want to bring the letter of law in line with current landscaping trends.

“I think the zoning ordinance is ridiculous,’’ Mr. Anderson said.  “It clearly needs to be changed.” 

 

For the full story, see:

MELISSA SANFORD.  "Salt Lake City Moving Toward Less Thirsty Lawns."  The New York Times (Fri., August 25, 2006):  A12.

 

Planners Attack Cul-de-Sacs

CulDeSacs1.jpg A cul-de-sac in Eagan, Minnesota.  Source of photo:  the online version of the NYT article cited below.

City planners think they know how other people should live their lives, and the planners believe that they have the right to impose their "knowledge" on others.  I believe that there are pros and cons to living in a subdivision with cul-de-sacs, and on balance, I don’t like them.  But I understand why others might decide differently, and I think they have a right to use their own money to buy into the kind of neighborhood they prefer. 

The New York Times ran an interesting article that focused on the debate on cul-de-sacs in Northfield, Minnesota:

. . .  here and in other areas across the country, this staple of suburban development is drawing criticism from a growing number of planners and government officials, who say it should become an endangered species.

Highly popular after World War II, the cul-de-sac is essentially a dead-end residential street, often but not always ending with a large circular patch of pavement allowing vehicles to turn around.  The form was initially embraced as something that promoted security, neighborliness and efficient transportation.

Homeowners found that the cul-de-sac limited traffic, creating a sense of privacy, while encouraging ties among neighbors, who could hardly avoid one another.  Developers liked the cul-de-sac because it made it possible to build on land unsuited to a grid street pattern and because home buyers were willing to pay a premium to live on one.

. . .

Don Mitchell, professor of geography at the Maxwell School of Citizenship and Public Affairs at Syracuse University, grew up on a cul-de-sac in Moraga, Calif., and has seen both sides of the debate.  “It’s a quiet street that all us kids could play on without too much fear of traffic,” he said.  “And there was pretty good surveillance by our parents when we were out in the street.”

But those advantages can also be disadvantages.  “They’re quite insular,” he said.  “They tend to almost induce a circle-the-wagons sort of atmosphere, so anybody becomes a stranger who’s on the street.  They don’t often act like public streets.  We always knew when there was someone who wasn’t a regular on our street, and yet they had every right to be there.”

. . .

Although planners may be turning away from cul-de-sacs, people who actually live on them are willing to fight for them.

 

For the full story, see: 

CARLA BARANAUCKAS.  "NATIONAL PERSPECTIVES; Why Some Towns Place Roadblocks on Cul-de-Sacs."  The New York Time, Section 8  (Sun., August 27, 2006):  20.

 

  A cul-de-sac in Eagan, Minnesota.  Source of photo:  the online version of the NYT article cited above.

Obama Says Africa Needs Less, and Better, Government: More on Why Africa is Poor

  Senator Obama in Kenya.  For the source of the photo, see: http://www.nytimes.com/2006/08/26/world/africa/26obama.html

 

NAIROBI, Kenya, Aug. 28 — Barack Obama strode into a packed auditorium in Nairobi on Monday and attacked an issue that notoriously bedevils Kenyan society:  corruption.

He urged people to reject “the insulting idea that corruption is somehow part of Kenyan culture” and “to stand up and speak out against injustices.”

. . .

During his speech on Monday, he laid out a tough prescription for Africa’s ills, calling for government cutbacks, more openness and less ethnic politics.

Kenya is one of the more developed countries in sub-Saharan Africa and one of the closest to the West, but it is consistently ranked by international organizations as one of the most corrupt.  Mr. Obama said this corroded its ability to attract investment, fight terrorism and provide security for its own people.

Most of all, he told Kenyans to stop complaining about the injustices of the colonial past and to accept responsibility.  “It’s more than just history and outside influence that explain why Kenya is lagging behind,” he said.

He ended by telling the crowd, “I want you all to know that as your ally, your friend and your brother, I will be there in every way I can.”

Many in the audience left in high spirits.

“He’s inspiring,” said Miriam Musonye, a literature professor.  “He really seems to believe what he says.”

 

For the full story, see:

JEFFREY GETTLEMAN.  "Obama Urges Kenyans to Get Tough on Corruption."  The New York Times  (Tues., August 29, 2006):  A10.

 

Feds Slowed DSL by Forcing “Open Access”

Here is the background.  From the earliest days of broadband service, controversy raged over whether the physical networks used to transport data should be allowed to control content.  Thus open access rules, which forced telcos to allow broadband company rivals to use their networks at regulated rates.  Cable TV systems, meanwhile, also provided Internet connections via cable modems, but without any obligation to share their facilities.  If an independent Internet Service Provider (ISP) like Covad or Earthlink wanted to connect customers via Comcast’s lines, they could negotiate a deal but had no legal club — as they did under open access.

There was a vigorous campaign to mandate open access on cable similar to DSL; regulators under both Presidents Clinton and Bush refused.  The inevitable litigation ensued; but the Supreme Court set the matter to rest in FCC v. Brand X (2005).  Its 6-3 decision upheld the FCC’s classification of cable broadband as an "information service," placing it beyond the scope of common carrier regulation.

For a number of years, therefore, DSL service was subject to open access while cable was not.  Unsurprisingly, DSL providers were blown away early in the race for market share.  By the end of 2002, cable-modem subscribers numbered 11 million and DSL just 6.1 million, according to Leichtman Research.

Then DSL began its deregulatory trek.  The first critical reform was a surprise FCC decision in February 2003 to end "line sharing" rules.  This dramatically raised the prices which ISPs would have to pay to use phone company facilities to provide retail DSL service, dealing a severe blow to companies like Covad.  Echoing conventional wisdom, the New York Times news story forecast a consumer defeat: "High-Speed Service May Cost More."

It hasn’t.  Average DSL rates, according to Kagan Research, dropped from $39.51 per month in 2002 to $34.72 in 2003.  Telcos also expanded the scope, capacity and quality of advanced networks, even improving its endemic customer relations problems.

Consumers responded.  DSL, holding just 35% market share in 2002, pulled even with cable among new subscribers in 2004.  Leichtman Research reports that "DSL providers have added more broadband subscribers than cable providers in each of the last six quarters," and that overall, "the first quarter of 2006 was the best ever for both DSL and cable broadband providers."  Unleashed from open access, DSL is attracting customers like never before — and the overall growth of broadband subscribers (DSL and cable) is notably higher.

 

For the full commentary, see:

THOMAS W. HAZLETT.  "RULE OF LAW; Broadbandits."  Wall Street Journal  (Sat., August 12, 2006):  A9.

Vinod Gupta: the Democrat’s Ken Lay?

Much has been made of the good will between the Bushes and the late Enron CEO Ken Lay.  But not all of those who fall short of sainthood are friends of Republicans.  During the Clinton administration, Vinod Gupta slept at the White House.  He is a major donor to Democrats, and has been a delegate to the Democratic National Convention.  Yet Gretchen Morgenson of the New York Times suggests that Gupta may not be an exemplar of sound management practices:

(p. 1)  ANYONE who says that the Midwest is dull and monochromatic has obviously never been to Omaha.  The city of Warren E. Buffett, the investing great who has generated huge gains for his shareholders over the years, is also home to Vinod Gupta, the colorful chief executive of infoUSA, who has destroyed enormous value for outside shareholders in recent years.  Now that’s diversity.

Unfortunately for the shareholders of infoUSA, a database marketing concern, much of its story is a throwback to the pre-Enron days of cozy boards and entitled executives.  Mr. Gupta, who founded infoUSA in 1972 and owns 38 percent of its shares, doesn’t seem to recognize that he is running a public company and needs to look out for his non-Gupta shareholders.  His board has done little to help him see the light.

InfoUSA shares hit a 52-week low Friday, closing at $7.98.  They are down 27 percent for the period.

Mr. Gupta is, shall we say, a piece of work.  He often prevents large shareholders from asking questions on conference calls.  He has received compensation that was not earned under the terms of the company’s executive compensation program, according to a lawsuit that Cardinal Value Equity Partners, infoUSA’s largest outside holder, filed against the company.  And, the suit alleges, his board has given him free rein to dispense stock options to whomever he likes.

Related-party transactions are also routine at infoUSA.  The Cardinal lawsuit contends that infoUSA paid a company owned by Mr. Gupta about $608,000 in 2003 to buy his interest in a skybox at the University of Nebraska’s Memorial Stadium.  The university is Mr. Gupta’s alma mater and home of the Cornhuskers football team.  In June 2005, the suit says, infoUSA paid $2.2 million for a long-term lease of his yacht.  The yacht, named American Princess, is 80 feet long and has an all-female crew, according to a report in The Triton, a monthly publication for boat captains and crews.

Leases on an H2 Hummer, a gold Honda Odys-(p. 8)sey, a Glacier Bay Catamaran, a Mini Cooper, a Lexus 330, a Mercedes SL500 — all used by the Gupta clan — as well as rent on a Gupta family condominium on Maui have also been financed by infoUSA shareholders, the suit said.

Shareholders also paid a company owned by Mr. Gupta’s wife $64,200 for consulting services in 2003 and 2004.  Shareholders have also covered the Gupta family’s personal use of a corporate jet — leased by infoUSA from a company owned by the family — to have fun in the sun in Hawaii and the Bahamas.  Mr. Gupta apparently wasn’t in a mood to return the favor:  during a four-year period ending in 2004, infoUSA paid $13.5 million to Mr. Gupta’s private company for use of the aircraft.

What to make of all of this?  The Cardinal lawsuit contends that the carnivalesque spending amounts to unregulated perquisites and evidence of a somnambulant board.  Sleepy, perhaps,  but always on the move.  Some 15 directors have spun through infoUSA’s boardroom door over the last decade; five of them stayed less than a year.

 

For the full story, see: 

Gretchen Morgenson. "That Other Guy From Omaha." The New York Times, Section 3 (Sun., August 27, 2006): 1 & 8.

 

 Source of graphic:  online version of the WSJ article cited above.

Needed to Save New Orleans: Less Local Government Corruption and More Local Capitalism

HurricaneKatrinaSpending.gif  Source of graphic:  online version of the WSJ editorial cited below.

 

New Orleans’ plight is not the result of federal underspending.  Uncle Sam has spent some five times more on Katrina relief than any other natural disaster in the past 50 years.  Both parties in Congress and the White House opted for the status quo by relying on federal bureaucracies to oversee the rebuilding effort.  If Uncle Sam were deliberately trying to waste these funds, it is hard to imagine a better way than to funnel the money through the Department of Housing and Urban Development, the Small Business Administration and the Federal Emergency Management Agency.  Both HUD and the SBA have been on the chopping block back to the early Reagan years.

The post-Katrina spend-fest in Louisiana will be remembered as one of the greatest taxpayer wastes in U.S. history.  First came the FEMA $2,000 debit-cards fiasco intended to pay for necessities that were used for things like flat-panel TVs and tattoos.  Then came the purchase of thousands of mobile homes that cost as much as $400,000 per family housed; the $200 million for renting the Carnival Cruise Ship  millions more in payments that went for season football tickets, luxury vacation resorts, even divorce lawyers.  Federal flood insurance policies surely will encourage many to rebuild in the same flood plains and at the same height as before.

. . .

After the hurricane, newspapers around the world showed photos of New Orleans under headlines that shouted:  "America’s shame."  In truth, New Orleans was America’s shame long before Katrina.  In large part the residents of the Big Easy were victims of the predatory behavior of their own politicians.  Louisiana already ranked among the bottom five of all the states in crime, poverty, health care and school performance; the murder rate in New Orleans today is 10 times the national average.

For all the finger-pointing this week, Congress hasn’t spent much more than a dime to clear away the debris of corruption, patronage, welfare dependency, high taxes and racial division of decimated neighborhoods.  What is still lacking in the life of New Orleans is the vital architecture of local capitalism.

 

For the full editorial, see: 

"The Tragedy of New Orleans."  The Wall Street Journal  (Tues., August 29, 2006):  A14.

 

Unintended Consequences of Sending Food: More on Why Africa is Poor

  Millet in bowl.  Source of photo:  online version of the NYT article cited below.

 

NIAMEY, Niger, Sept. 21 – The images coming out of this impoverished, West African nation have been unrelentingly grim:  hungry children with stick-thin arms and swollen bellies, mothers carrying babies hundreds of miles to look for food after a poor harvest and high prices put local staples out of reach.  A few months ago, those images prompted a torrent of food aid from Western donors.

But now, after a season of good rains, Niger’s farmers are producing a bumper crop of millet, the national staple.  This should be a cause for rejoicing, yet in one of the twists that mark life in the world’s poorest countries, the aid that was intended to save lives could ruin the harvest for many of Niger’s farmers by driving down prices.

The newly harvested millet and the donated food will reach market stalls at the same time, and with prices depressed, poor farming families may be forced to sell crops normally set aside for their own use and use the money to pay off debts.  The effect would be a new cycle of hunger and poverty.

 

For the full story, see:

Burley, Natasha C.  "In Place Where the Hungry Are Fed, Farmers May Starve."  The New York Times  (Thurs., September 22, 2005):  A3.

 

NigerMap.jpg  Source of map:  online version of the NYT article cited above.

Chilean Socialist Praises American Melting Pot

ChileanPresidentMichelleBachelet.jpg  Michelle Bachelet.  Souce of photo:  online version of the NYT article cited below.

 

SANTIAGO, Chile, June 7 — Michelle Bachelet has lived in the United States twice, first as a child and then as a single mother studying military affairs at the Inter-American Defense Board in Washington.  On Thursday, she will return to the capital, but this time on her first official visit as president of Chile.

Elected with a comfortable majority in January, Ms. Bachelet, 54, is her country’s first female president, a pediatrician and, like her predecessor Ricardo Lagos, a Socialist.   . . .

. . .

Ms. Bachelet also plans to visit the middle school she attended while living in Bethesda, Md., in 1962 and 1963, when her father was a military attaché at the Chilean Embassy in Washington.  That was the first time she had been outside Chile, and the exposure to American society helped mold her intellectually, she said.

"It was a lovely experience, because I found a society with a democratic history, a rich diversity of thought, and which offered opportunities to its citizens," she said.  "The idea of the melting pot was the biggest novelty to me, and I would say that all of that allowed me to acquire a political and cultural foundation that has been quite positive to my political performance."

 

LARRY ROHTER.  "Visit to U.S. Not a First for Chile’s First Female President."   The New York Times   (Thurs., June 8, 2006):  A3.

“If Ethanol Made Economic Sense, It Wouldn’t Need a Subsidy”

 

  Source of graphics:  online version of the World-Herald article cited below.

 

(p. 1D)  LINCOLN – David Pimentel, a Cornell University researcher, has been criticized repeatedly since he questioned the energy value of ethanol in 1980.

In a government-funded report, he suggested that ethanol provides less energy than is used to produce it.  Even though that report has been disputed and rejected by other analysts, Pimentel has not backed down.

He said last week that rural developers, farmers and investors will rue the day they put their money, hopes and dreams into the corn-based alternative fuel.

"It is too bad," he said in an interview, "because it would be a tremendous asset to agriculture if this were a true winner."

Pimentel is among the public critics who raise red flags as momentum gathers for dramatic increases in production, especially in the nation’s top two ethanol-producing states:  Iowa and Nebraska.

While Pimentel is perhaps the expert most often quoted – in part because he presented his analysis more than 25 years ago – others also raise questions about the energy value of ethanol and its economic benefits and environmental effects.

Ethanol backers defend the fuel as a viable way to help stabilize the nation’s fuel supply.  But they haven’t convinced Jerry Taylor, an energy policy specialist for the Cato Institute, a conservative think tank in Washington, D.C.

"If ethanol made economic sense, it wouldn’t need a subsidy," Taylor said.

 

For the full story, see:

BILL HORD.  "High-octane Clash."  Omaha World-Herald  (Sunday, August 6, 2006):  1D-2D.

 

  Source of graphics:  online version of the World-Herald article cited above.

 

Entrepreneur’s $100 Million Rocket Destroyed

Lesson one:  entreprepreneurship is risky, and often fails.  Lesson two:  when an entreprepreneur’s rocket is destroyed, his $100 million goes up in smoke; when NASA’s rocket is destroyed, your $100 million goes up in smoke. 

Government and industry efforts to develop innovative, less costly rockets suffered a high-profile setback Friday, when the initial flight of a satellite launcher bankrolled by outspoken entrepreneur Elon Musk ended in failure.

After Mr. Musk spent nearly four years and well over $100 million of his personal fortune to create a rocket company from scratch, his Falcon project became the best-known and most aggressive entrant in the fledgling small-rocket segment.  But according to preliminary assessments, a fuel leak and resulting fire during last week’s inaugural launch shut down the main engines less than 30 seconds after blastoff from a Pacific atoll.  The rocket and a research satellite built by Air Force Academy students were destroyed.

 

For the full story, see:

Pasztor, Andy.  "Entrepreneur’s Rocket Suffers Setback During Maiden Launch."  Wall Street Journal (Monday, March 27, 2006):  A14.