Brookings Harsh Critics of Bush Iraq Policies, Surprised to See Military Progress in Iraq

 

Please note that the commentary excerpted below was published on the Op-Ed page of the New York Times, and was written by two policy experts at the Brookings Institute, the leading think-tank of the Democratic party.

 

Washington.  VIEWED from Iraq, where we just spent eight days meeting with American and Iraqi military and civilian personnel, the political debate in Washington is surreal. The Bush administration has over four years lost essentially all credibility. Yet now the administration’s critics, in part as a result, seem unaware of the significant changes taking place.

Here is the most important thing Americans need to understand: We are finally getting somewhere in Iraq, at least in military terms. As two analysts who have harshly criticized the Bush administration’s miserable handling of Iraq, we were surprised by the gains we saw and the potential to produce not necessarily “victory” but a sustainable stability that both we and the Iraqis could live with.

After the furnace-like heat, the first thing you notice when you land in Baghdad is the morale of our troops. In previous trips to Iraq we often found American troops angry and frustrated — many sensed they had the wrong strategy, were using the wrong tactics and were risking their lives in pursuit of an approach that could not work.

Today, morale is high. The soldiers and marines told us they feel that they now have a superb commander in Gen. David Petraeus; they are confident in his strategy, they see real results, and they feel now they have the numbers needed to make a real difference.

Everywhere, Army and Marine units were focused on securing the Iraqi population, working with Iraqi security units, creating new political and economic arrangements at the local level and providing basic services — electricity, fuel, clean water and sanitation — to the people. Yet in each place, operations had been appropriately tailored to the specific needs of the community. As a result, civilian fatality rates are down roughly a third since the surge began — though they remain very high, underscoring how much more still needs to be done.

. . .

In war, sometimes it’s important to pick the right adversary, and in Iraq we seem to have done so. A major factor in the sudden change in American fortunes has been the outpouring of popular animus against Al Qaeda and other Salafist groups, as well as (to a lesser extent) against Moktada al-Sadr’s Mahdi Army.

These groups have tried to impose Shariah law, brutalized average Iraqis to keep them in line, killed important local leaders and seized young women to marry off to their loyalists. The result has been that in the last six months Iraqis have begun to turn on the extremists and turn to the Americans for security and help. The most important and best-known example of this is in Anbar Province, which in less than six months has gone from the worst part of Iraq to the best (outside the Kurdish areas). Today the Sunni sheiks there are close to crippling Al Qaeda and its Salafist allies. Just a few months ago, American marines were fighting for every yard of Ramadi; last week we strolled down its streets without body armor.

 

For the full commentary, see: 

MICHAEL E. O’ HANLON and KENNETH M. POLLACK.  "A War We Just Might Win."  The New York Times  (Mon., July 30, 2007):  A19.

(Note:  ellipses added.)

 

“Just Because George Bush Said It Doesn’t Mean It’s Wrong”

 

KerreyBobSenator.jpg   Former Nebraska Senator and Governor Bob Kerrey.  Source of photo:  online version of the Omaha World-Herald article cited below.

 

WASHINGTON – Raising a lonely voice in the Democratic Party, former Sen. Bob Kerrey of Nebraska says he strongly opposes any dramatic U.S. troop withdrawal from Iraq.

Such a retreat, Kerrey says, would hand radical Islamic terrorists a substantial victory and enable them to destroy the fledgling democracy in Iraq.

In an article published Tuesday and in an interview, Kerrey said terrorists would gain safe haven from which to launch further attacks on American citizens like those of Sept. 11, 2001.

Kerrey said that if the United States shows weakness in Iraq, it will "pay a terrible price."

"The forces of al-Qaida have demonstrated a tremendous capacity, and they’ll use that capacity if we withdraw from the playing field," said Kerrey, a former two-term U.S. senator.

In the interview, Kerrey also had a message for fellow Democrats: "Just because George Bush said it doesn’t mean it’s wrong."

 

For the full story, see:

JAKE THOMPSON.  "Kerrey says U.S. mustn’t look weak in Iraq."  Omaha World-Herald  (Wednesday, May 23, 2007):  1A & 2A.

 

The link to Kerrey’s opinion piece in the Wall Street Journal is:

BOB KERREY.  "The Left’s Iraq Muddle."  The Wall Street Journal  (Tues., May 22, 2007):  A15. 

 

Amazon’s Jeff Bezos Attended Montessori Preschool

 

As a preschooler, Jeffrey P. Bezos displayed an unmatched single-mindedness.  By his mother’s account, the young Bezos got so engrossed in the details of activities at his Montessori school that teachers had to pick him up in his chair to move him to new tasks.

 

For the full story, see: 

"THE GREAT INNOVATORS; Jeff Bezos: The Wizard Of Web Retailing Amazon.com’s founder made online shopping faster and more personal than a trip to the local store."  BusinessWeek  (DECEMBER 20, 2004).

The above is a reprint.  The original story appeared as: 

Robert D. Hof.  "THE TORRENT OF ENERGY BEHIND AMAZON."  BusinessWeek  (Dec. 14, 1998):  119.

 

Beebe’s “Colleagues Reacted Coolly”

 

    Photos of strange deep sea creatures.  Source of photos:  online version of the NYT article cited below.

 

When, more than 70 years ago, William Beebe became the first scientist to descend into the abyss, he described a world of twinkling lights, silvery eels, throbbing jellyfish, living strings as “lovely as the finest lace” and lanky monsters with needlelike teeth.

“It was stranger than any imagination could have conceived,” he wrote in “Half Mile Down” (Harcourt Brace, 1934). “I would focus on some one creature and just as its outlines began to be distinct on my retina, some brilliant, animated comet or constellation would rush across the small arc of my submarine heaven and every sense would be distracted, and my eyes would involuntarily shift to this new wonder.”

Beebe sketched some of the creatures, because no camera of the day was able to withstand the rigors of the deep and record the nuances of this cornucopia of astonishments.

Colleagues reacted coolly. Some accused Beebe of exaggeration. One reviewer suggested that his heavy breathing had fogged the window of the submarine vessel, distorting the undersea views.

Today, the revolution in lights, cameras, electronics and digital photography is revealing a world that is even stranger than the one that Beebe struggled to describe.

The images arrayed here come from “The Deep: The Extraordinary Creatures of the Abyss” (University of Chicago Press, 2007), by Claire Nouvian, a French journalist and film director.

. . .

Beebe, who ran the tropical research department at the New York Zoological Society, surely had intimations of what lay beyond the oceanic door he had opened. “The Deep” brings much of that dark landscape to light, even while noting that a vast majority of the planet’s largest habitat remains unexamined, awaiting a new generation of explorers. 

 

For the full story, see: 

WILLIAM J. BROAD.  "Mysteries to Behold in the Dark Down Deep: Seadevils and Species Unknown."  The New York Times  (Tues.,  May 22, 2007):  D3.

(Note:  ellipsis added.)

 

    "A Ping-Pong tree sponge."  Source of caption and photo:  online version of the NYT article cited above.

 

Unintended Consequences: Hydrogen Produced with Coal

 

The excerpt below is from a WSJ summary of an article in the April issue of MIT’s Technology Review.  If the article is correct, then hydrogen may provide one more example of why the government should stop trying to determine which technologies are best.

 

Hydrogen fuel is widely seen as a potentially environmentally clean alternative to fossil fuels for use in cars, but technology writer David Talbot says the perception is wrong — powering automobiles with hydrogen could actually be more polluting than gasoline.

. . .

With . . .  scarce renewable energy resources, hydrogen power might wind up being produced with coal, which generates more carbon dioxide than any other energy source. That would defeat the environmental inspiration behind vehicles like the Hydrogen 7, Mr. Talbot concludes in a review of "Hell and High Water," a book by Joseph Romm, an MIT-trained physicist. A more efficient route for car makers would be to focus on high-mileage gasoline-powered vehicles. They are simpler and less sexy than hydrogen cars, Mr. Talbot says, but for now they stack up as the cleaner option.

 

For the full summary, see: 

"Informed Reader; ENERGY; Hydrogen May Not Be Greenest Route for Cars."  The Wall Street Journal  (Tues., April 24, 2007):  B7.

(Note:  ellipses added.)

 

Free Trade with China Benefits Both U.S. and China

 

 

The image above is from a full-page ad that is scheduled to run in today’s eastern edition of the Wall Street Journal.  I am one of the 1,028 economists who agreed to have their names attached to the petition.

Here is the petition: 

 

PETITION
Concerning Protectionist Policies Against China

We, the undersigned, have serious concerns about the recent protectionist sentiments coming from Congress, especially with regards to China.

By the end of this year, China will most likely be the United States’ second largest trading partner.  Over the past six years, total trade between the two countries has soared, growing from $116 billion in 2000 to almost $343 billion in 2006.  That’s an average growth rate of almost 20% a year.

This marvelous growth has led to more affordable goods; higher productivity; strong job growth; and a higher standard of living for both countries.  These economic benefits were made possible in large part because both China and the United States embraced freer trade.

As economists, we understand the vital and beneficial role that free trade plays in the world economy.  Conversely, we believe that barriers to free trade destroy wealth and benefit no one in the long run.  Because of these fundamental economic principles, we sign this letter to advise Congress against imposing retaliatory trade measures against China.

There is no foundation in economics that supports punitive tariffs.  China currently supplies American consumers with inexpensive goods and low-interest rate loans.  Retaliatory tariffs on China are tantamount to taxing ourselves as a punishment.  Worse, such a move will likely encourage China to impose its own tariffs, increasing the possibility of a futile and harmful trade war.  American consumers and businesses would pay the price for this senseless war through higher prices, worse jobs, and reduced economic growth.

We urge Congress to discard any plans for increased protectionism, and instead urge lawmakers to work towards fostering stronger global economic ties through free trade.


 

Why Coke Cost a Nickel for 60 Years

 

The excerpt below is from a WSJ summary of a May 11, 2007 Slate article.

 

A serving of Coca-Cola cost a nickel for 60 years — an example that illustrates the disadvantages of price stability, Tim Harford writes. 

. . .   Prices won’t accurately reflect a product’s demand and the cost of producing it.  If, for example, the relative price of a car "can’t fall when demand does, sales will collapse."  If wages can’t fall in a recession, unemployment will rise.

The case of Coke, Mr. Harford says, is an example of the main reason companies choose to keep prices constant in the face of dramatic rises and falls in costs: the hassle of changing a product’s price can be very high.  Coke kept its price constant from 1886 through the mid-1940s, even as the price of sugar tripled after World War I and then fell slightly, and after the product went from being taxed as a medicine to taxed as a soft drink.  Part of Coke’s problem was that it sold many of its bottles in vending machines that accepted only nickels.  A price increase would have meant either building new vending machines or doubling the price of Coke, neither of which made financial sense.

 

For the full summary, see: 

"Informed Reader; ECONOMICS; The Cost of Raising Prices Can Prove Too High to Pay."  The Wall Street Journal  (Mon., May 14, 2007):  B7.

 

“I Fly with Leslie”

 

FlyWithLesliePoster.jpg  A poster that is displayed in some Wall Street Journal offices in solidarity with a Bancroft family member who has openly expressed doubts about Rupert Murdoch’s proposed purchase of the Journal.  Source of the image:  online version of the NYT article cited below.

 

A lot of the news media imitate each other in viewpoint and content.  The Wall Street Journal is fresh and innovative, and frequently gives us important news that is new.

And there have been times throughout recent decades when the editorial page of the Journal was one of the few voices for truth, justice and freedom.  It would be a great loss for that voice to be silenced.

On the other hand, I have noted in an earlier entry, that the business side of the Journal is in need of improvement. 

I do not know if in the end, the Murdoch bid is the best chance for the long-run survival of what is good about the Journal.  But I do wish the Journal, and the Journal‘s journalists, well. 

 

(p. C1)  On May 14, more than 100 reporters, editors and executives clustered in The Wall Street Journal’s main newsroom to mark the retirement of Peter R. Kann, the longtime leader of their corporate parent, Dow Jones & Company.

Mr. Kann, in rolled-up shirtsleeves, was typically self-effacing about his own contributions to the company. But the celebration of the past was muted by worry about The Journal’s future. A few weeks earlier, Rupert Murdoch’s News Corporation had offered $5 billion to buy Dow Jones. The Bancroft family, owners of a controlling stake in the company, rebuffed the offer at first, but there were signs that some of them were wavering.

Mr. Kann, who had been advising the family against selling, expressed hope that Mr. Murdoch would not prevail, using an image of The Journal as a citadel trying to repel an invasion by tabloid barbarians.

“The drawbridge is up,” Mr. Kann told the group. “So far, so good.”

For employees at Dow Jones, the 11 weeks since they learned of the Murdoch offer have been a wrenching time, raising the prospect of fundamental changes at an organization that had already had its fill of big changes in the last couple of years — with Mr. Kann being replaced by Richard F. Zannino as chief executive, with Marcus W. Brauchli taking over from Paul E. Steiger as top editor; and with a shift of its mission, by adding a Saturday paper and more lifestyle articles to appeal to new advertisers, and investing heavily in its digital properties.

. . .  

(p. C12)  The anti-Murdoch forces enjoyed one of their brief lifts on June 29 when The Journal reported that Leslie Hill, a Bancroft family member, had grave reservations about selling to Mr. Murdoch. Someone enlarged The Journal’s dot drawing of Ms. Hill, a retired airline pilot, adding the words “I Fly with Leslie” above her face. Copies of the makeshift poster appeared in Journal offices around the country.

. . .  

As the chances of an alternative have appeared to wane, more reporters and editors have polished their résumés and approached rival publications about jobs. Some have even talked of starting their own business news Web site.

Many voiced disappointment in the Bancrofts, the family that has owned the company for more than a century and taken great pride in it, for not playing a leading role in running it for more than 70 years.

“We understand that for the Bancrofts this is a choice between getting much richer, and holding onto something because they believe in it,” a reporter said. “What they may not realize is that many of us in the newsroom have made the same choice. There are a lot of people here who could be traders or lawyers, people with M.B.A.’s, who could be making a lot more money. To us, this is not an abstract choice.” 

 

For the full story, see: 

RICHARD PÉREZ-PEÑA. "At The Gates; Murdoch’s Arrival Worries Journal Employees." The New York Times  (Thurs., July 19, 2007):  C1 & C12. 

 

MurdochRupert.jpg Rupert Murdoch.  Note that the image is a tribute, or humorous small jab at, the hallmark image style of the Wall Street Journal, in which photographs are re-done by artists into an example of something like pointillism.  (True also of the poster image above.)  Source of the image:  online version of the NYT article cited above.

 

A Public Choice Theory of “Taxonomic Inflation”

 

The excerpt below is from a WSJ summary of an article that appeared in The Economist on May 19, 2007.

 

Scientists have taken to upgrading animals once thought to be subspecies into full-fledged species, in what the Economist says is an overzealous attempt to boost conservation of seemingly rare animals.

Sometimes, the reclassification of animals into their own species category is warranted, as new research reveals once-obscured markers that differentiate certain beasts. But lately, the weekly says, primatologists have been suffering from "taxonomic inflation."

. . .

. . .   One reason is that by fragmenting animal groups, the number of rare species increases, boosting animal-conservation claims.  At the same time, having a greater number of species boosts the chances that a habitat can pursue a legal designation as a protected area.

 

For the full summary, see: 

"Informed Reader; NATURE; Species Inflation May Infect Over-Eager Conservationists."  The Wall Street Journal  (Sat., May 19, 2007):  A6.

(Note:  ellipsis added.)

 

We Should Not Be Forced to Fluoresce

 

Source of lighting table:  online version of the WSJ article cited below.

 

I’ve been using some of the compact fluorescent light bulbs for a few years.  They’re very slightly slower to turn on, and I don’t like the quality of light quite as well, but the money I figure I save is enough, for me, to outweigh the minor disadvantages.  But I can easily imagine a rational person viewing the trade-offs differently.  So it galls me that some environmentalists want to force us to fluoresce. 

If enough people are willing to pay the higher energy costs of incandescent light, then we should let private enterprise build more nuclear power plants to provide consumers what they should be free to buy.

 

(p. A1)  WASHINGTON — Manufacturers and environmentalists are hammering out a nationwide energy-saving lighting standard that, if enacted by Congress, would effectively phase out the common household light bulb in about 10 years. That in turn could produce major cuts in the nation’s electricity costs and greenhouse-gas emissions.

The new standard is expected to compel a huge shift by American consumers and businesses away from incandescent bulbs to more efficient — but also more expensive — fluorescent models, by requiring more light per energy unit than is yielded by most incandescents in use. The winner, at least in the near term, likely would be the compact fluorescent light bulb, or CFL.

 

For the full story, see:

JOHN J. FIALKA and KATHRYN KRANHOLD.  "Households Would Need New Bulbs To Meet Lighting-Efficiency Rule."  The Wall Street Journal  (Sat., May 5, 2007):  A1 & A5. 

 

 FluorescentBulb.gif   The bulb I like, but don’t want to be forced to use.  Source of image:  online version of the WSJ article cited above.

 

A Salute to Underappreciated Amateur Historians

 

On a bright Saturday afternoon earlier this month, 30 or so of us gathered to give James O. Hall the send-off he deserved. Appropriately enough, the memorial service was held in the James O. Hall Research Center of the Surratt House museum, in Clinton, Md., 12 miles south of Washington. Mr. Hall died in February at the age of 95, leaving no immediate survivors. The 30 who showed up were instead neighbors, friends, a pair of nieces and random hangers-on who, like me, had known him only slightly but who honored him as a giant in a long and noble and underappreciated line.

I don’t think there’s a good word for what Mr. Hall did: "researcher" is too dry, "historical investigator" carries hints of melodrama, and "archivist" suggests a dutiful drudge, which Mr. Hall was not. "Amateur historian" probably fits best, though it sounds vaguely derivative and second-tier. Following a career with the Labor Department — he retired in the early 1970s — Mr. Hall turned himself into the world’s foremost authority on the assassination of Abraham Lincoln. Historians, pros and amateurs alike, sought him out for his knowledge and access to his exhaustive files. As one of them put it, James O. Hall knew more about Lincoln’s murder than anyone who ever lived, including John Wilkes Booth.

. . .

"I had to teach myself genealogy," he said. "Not because I liked genealogy, but because it’s how you find things that have been lost." Over the years, he tried to trace the descendants of everyone even remotely tied to the assassination. When he found a new great-granddaughter or the grandson of a nephew, he politely peppered that person with letters and phone calls, asking the descendant to rummage through attics — or offering, even better, to do it himself. His industry never flagged, and it led him to some of his greatest discoveries. In a dusty cubby in a forgotten archive, Mr. Hall made one of the major Lincoln finds of the past 50 years: a letter of self-justification Booth wrote the morning of the murder.

Typically, in 1977, Mr. Hall chose to publish this astonishing find in the Lincoln Log, a newsletter for buffs. Its circulation was minuscule compared with the slick magazines — National Geographic or American Heritage — that would have loved to showcase such a find and maybe make its discoverer famous. But Mr. Hall was without professional vanity; that’s what it means to be an amateur, after all.

At the end of his life, Mr. Hall treated his vast archives with the same modesty and discretion. At least two well-endowed universities made a play for the contents of his file cabinets. Instead, he gave them to the small, homespun Surratt House museum, once the country home of the Lincoln conspirator Mary Surratt and a favorite gathering place for buffs. With a single stroke, he transformed the museum into the Alexandrian library of assassination studies. It was a gesture of confidence and fellow feeling, made to all amateur historians from the best of their kind.

 

For the full commentary, see: 

ANDREW FERGUSON.  "TASTE; A History Hobby."  The Wall Street Journal  (Fri., May 25, 2007):  W13.

(Note:  ellipsis added.)